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Or the Beetaloo is proven up -- and Origin just buys you out. Or some other megabillion conglomerate that has money to burn. Then you will probably ***** about selling out early. If we have positive results and have to raise another ten million to get our share price from $2 a share to $32 a share -- I don't care. I will have sold enough shares at $2 a share to cover my investment. And still have hundreds of thousands more shares. Geesh bigones -- I have never seen someone who always looks at life fully empty like you do. RELAX -- everyone is sniping at everyone -- as everyone is anxious that this decade ( I say decade as it has been for me) long investment will or will not succeed. Let the cards play out.
Sometimes you bet for that straight -- and you just need one card to win the hand. That is where we are at now. But you have to keep betting the ante to stay in. Sometimes you win -- sometimes you lose. I remember buying this stock at $6+ a share. Then I had a couple hundred shares. Now I have hundreds of thousands. I win bigger now. If we win. And if this doesn't work -- there is always South Africa. LOL
If it wins out -- I will fly to Ireland to shake POQ's hand. And have a pint or two.
Two ways out of this financial mess , Issue millions more shares or give Origin another 5 -10 % of the property ! Did Hess get their 10 million shares ?
Knight the bad news is you!
JF: what happened to your “enjoying pints before Monday’s good news” statement. We got bad news that Monday!!!
You need to up your medication you are obviously not well
I said possible commercial well, because great flow would help indicate the presence of a deposit of some significance. Which I hoped 2000 meters could show, plus prove the technology to do this is there. As for POQ, CEOs are like coaches, win and win now, or ? Don't care about excuses. I'll buy another 20 k after 50 million shares are offered this summer. Glta
BO: And what do you propose we do about it? When you are the first into battle sometimes you catch the arrows. It was an unfortunate unforeseen problem with a never before horizontally drilled formation. Unknown environments can create unpredictable results. But then again, in your eyes, it was probably all POQ's fault!
If the Kyalla proves highly successful the Velkerri wet will be removed as a stage2 well - if that happens then plenty of money to apply to stage3. If the Velkerri is drilled then I agree there may need for an additional stage3 raise to prove commerciality of whatever target is picked - I just see that raise as being a low hurdle for Falcon at that point.
Question - What is the new horizontal targeted distance since you indicate it is shrinking again. Last I heard it was about 1500 meters which was the initial potential length. New flash - this horizontal test well does not prove commerciality of the Kyalla - that is the purpose of the stage3 program. This Kyalla well could come at 7 - 8 Mmcfd and there would still need to be stage 3 wells drilled - companies won't accept commerciality based on one well's performance.
You just need to view this as another chance to load up with another 20,000 shares of stock.
Accepted, people just don't understand how colossal these delays are to Falcon, they are huge. Now May till results, plus we will see the horizontal shrink in distance again, allowing for no concrete info as to possible commercial status. Jmo
That's really not stepping out there considering we already know the last raise only covered the next $100 million in capex spend, while the estimated gross capex for Stage 2 and Stage 3 to complete the farm-out is $130 million. So yeah, they may need another ~$9 million or so. But if they need more money to move forward, that likely means the current wells have proven successful. In which case, wouldn't you want them to proceed?
Agree with you BO, see my post of 13th Dec
What the frack Big Ones. I will do just about anything to make you **** up and go away. I accept your challenge. You will be wrong and hopefully then we are rid of you and your bs
Time to put up or shut up , as you know I said in August the price would be lower in January then , I was right as usual ! I challenge every one that I believe we will see an offering before August selling many more millions into the market if I am wrong I won't post here again and same to all challengers. Anyone ?
WW-
Too late to do anything,, but wanted you to know the FACTS. Thanks
Poods: And we shall continue to have to agree to disagree! Not going there again. Maybe R/S should be your first name and not your middle :^)
WW-
Appreciate your explanation, but would make a single additional comment regarding POQ and the R/S matter. Whether it was or was not going to be beneficial, which neither of us could prove until it in fact happened, I will repeat the reason for persistence, which some friends and others, say should be my middle name, is POQ never told shareholders what I believe is the real reason for not recommending it, is the fact FOG did not meet the financial requirements, instead of his excuse. Unfortunately, my efforts to find either via telephone or email, a person at one of several regulatory agencies in Canada, has not resulting in anyone even understanding the question. POQ on the otherwise knows the answer, but refuses to tell at least me the answer, as it might reflect poorly on him, which is unfortunate itself, as if our balance sheet is underfunded, it not his fault totally. That said, if in fact we are / were underfunded and when I initially asked FOG was ~30p, the opportunity to refresh the balance sheet was lost. Ask him the question about the requirements etal, as he never would answer the question and is the reason he stopped speaking to me. If I had been on his board and heard from a shareholders what I just explained, I would told POQ, the right response was to acknowledge the request by answering the question any shareholder could have asked. Think that about completes it on my end. You ask him!
Poods: Come on guy: That new management team comment was poking a little fun at some of the stereotypical topics of posters the board - you have to admit you pushed the R/S long and hard. Same with BO - he is always saying if he thought we should drill through the moratorium (where and into what formation we don't know - just get the damn holes drilled!). As to Namu, he and I have constantly bantered about various topics and IMO he is always wrong LOL! - though he thinks the same about my crystal ball. All three of you guys have your barbs out for POQ so I lumped you in the same 'new management' team.
You and I both have a significant investment in Falcon and therefore both of us are after that same gold ring. Tuck in that lip and lighten up a little! It was all in good spirits.
WW-
Am a little disappointed in your comment with regards my efforts. However as mentioned previously, have been involved in a number of management changes which worked out well. The last one let me retire at age 50 and move to the mountains where I sit as I respond. I made nearly a 100 times my investment on that last venture, which I built up painfully just like this one over a number of years (13 to be exact). At this point we are in the final stages of discovery and the results will determine win or lose for those who remain. POODS
Top notch postings fellas. Appreciated especially by those whose understanding petroleum geology and the intricacies of drilling far exceed that of people like me.
Sandy/Newtofo: Thanks for the comments. We are fortunate to have Origin - there was a good reason Origin was picked from amongst several companies interested in the Beetaloo Project. Philip wanted a very reputable solid company which we have to admit paid off in spades when the NT slapped our Beetaloo fracking project with a moratorium. Origin served an intricate part with the Judge Pepper scientific panel and its establishment of the 135 new regs. Origin's trusted reputation and relationship was instrumental in working through this government mandated fracking regulations process . Then consider all the extensive required paperwork/research requirements for the civic, environmental and drilling permit applications - Falcon was fortunate to have Origin's expertise and personal to put all that documentation together. Some fail to see the complete process involved in getting this controversial fracking process through the government - all they want to look at is the bottom line cost/speed - simply how fast/cheap we can drill the Kyalla.
IMO we are being well served by Origin and owe a big thanks to POQ for helping establish that relationship.
Good post Wet, and worthwhile for all to remember that while Origin may be the general operator -- they are contracting with some the best in the world with Ensign running the rig and Schlumberger running the frack and completions, plus a number of other top quality sub-contractors for wire-line and other services.
Take a look at the more than half dozen crew accommodation trailers in the aerial video footage -- and it is easy to see this is a very expensive exploratory well program that is being done with only one goal -- to do the best job and prove up the Kyalla one way or another.
Origin is doing us all a big favour by not rushing this exploration well, but rather being methodical and diligent with goal of proving the resource is recoverable -- rather than trying to win a speed contest. I can certainly understand Darnitagain's frustration -- especially when you look at similar wells being finished in two weeks in the Marcellus, but this is not a straight forward repeat again and again well program, but rather a very expensive single exploration only well -- that has to get it right even to detriment of delays and very slow progress.
We are also fortunate in that Origin planned for this program right through the wet season -- unlike Santos who is making absolutely zero progress right now just over the border from the Amungee.
Wet,
That 3rd paragraph is priceless! Gave me a great laugh. You have been a great contributor to the board and I applaud your support of POQ. I actually have enjoyed the input of BO and Poods. I truly believe they love the potential of the asset and have the faith but they love dishing it out to POQ and I’m feeling confident he will have the last laugh; at least I hope. I feel Origins must have even greater confidence now as they decide to go at it again horizontally. I’m sure those 700 meters showed them something that encouraged them to charge forward.
WW - thank you. No one could have said it any better! RG
Darnit: Sounds like you need to be on the sideline. IMO Origin is like a Chevron here in the PB. They are slow and methodical but you can be assured they follow the rules and regulations. - a company could go with a smaller less bureaucratic operator and get someone cheaper and quicker but that's a bit of the roll of the dice. In the NT a much lesser know operator would have likely never been approved for a permit - much less give Falcon a $200 million farm-out. Another thing you and others don't seem to appreciate is that this is a first time Kyalla horizontal and only the second horizontal shale well in OZ. The well is located in the middle of nowhere and you surely can appreciate that logistics are probably a nightmare - things are naturally going to move slowly and cautiously.
If you are not comfortable with the contractor you need to be out of the stock - really doesn't make me any difference what you are anyone on this board elects to do. I am confident with Origin being the operator and I have tons of faith in Philip. The sloughing off of the formation was no one's fault - you could have searched the world over for an expert in drilling horizontals in the Kyalla - you would have come up empty handed. The Kyalla is an unknown and it brought with it unforeseen problems - that's part of the learning experience of being the Kyalla's first exploratory horizontal test well. Something else - it is probably not the last leaning experience Origin/Falcon will have.
I had to chuckle over the board members doing a better job. Maybe you should put the drilling contractors hat on BO and you, Poods or Namu as CEO - that would be a royal cluster f*** but you could have drilled all your wells while in the moratorium, reverse split the hell out of the stock or been wrong on every move or prediction the company made. It always amazes me how stock boards always seem to have much smarter, better experienced people posting on their board than the professionals running a company - you seem to follow that line of thought.
Good luck wherever you end up. Please do us a favor and move on to something that lets you sleep better at night.
Wet, I just want to comment on your thinking ", the biggest problem with the 6 week delay is it might shorten the window for a 90 day EFT." I sold off yesterday, not because I thought the shale wasn't suddenly non-prospective, but because Origin is a TERRIBLE operator. They can't hit a schedule, they obviously aren't a real E&P, but some sort of committee driven bureaucracy. I suspect if we took the members here and put them in charge, they could do a better job. I'd like to buy back in, but unless I see something, like a rising share price and increase in vol. based on optimism at the well head, I'll sit back and cheer for the rest of you. Although FOG's being carried, between our inexperienced and over paid CEO and Origin's lack of having anything close to an experienced crew and real oily experienced management, I feel at this point they will continue to miss every goal--now matter how ridiculously distant they are penciled in--and make dumb decisions as a matter of course.
BO: As we know from the AGM, if the Kyalla comes in as we hope, Origin/Falcon would like to skip the last stage2 well and move straight to stage3. From the early indications the Kyalla looks very promising. If the Velkerri wet gas is dropped then Falcon should have plenty of remaining carry to see them through this program.
IMO, the biggest problem with the 6 week delay is it might shorten the window for a 90 day EFT. This will force a quicker decision on whether to proceed to the Velkerri wet or keep the rig in place and drill 2 stage3 Kyalla wells.
If the remaining stage2 well (Velkerri) is drilled then I can see a scenario where there could be an additional raise required.
IMO yesterday's release carried more good news than bad - a solid Kyalla well will pretty much insure commerciality of the Beetaloo and should put Origin back on schedule. Keep your fingers crossed!