Falcon Oil Share Chat (FOG)

Hardrock, just curious as to what brought you to this forum?

@hydrogen - because all three Tanumbirini wells are drilled at the same location (reasons beyond my understanding), adding reserves would be problematic. There is ~1000m radius increase with laterals and the reserves assessor can take it into account. But this is nothing like having two other wells 15-20km out and expanding reserves over a much larger area.
But there will be substantial uplift in valuation if clear path to commerciality (>>5mmscf/day/well) is demonstrated.

Darnitagain,
Maybe, but the momentum is now with developing a shale gas industry and it has widespread support.
The award was legal costs only - I think it's just positioning and the family looking to maximise future income.
Dragging on or more years I could do without.

Setbol,
This is going to be very expensive, and unless there is a large ransom paid upfront with a serious royalty arrangement following, I think this could drag on for years.

In any event, I suspect the problem will go away once a financial agreement has been reached.

I have a vague recollection that post moratorium either the same family, or the previous owners, made a big song and dance around no drilling / fracking on their land.

Think it was an article that Schlemiel posted but my memory is hazy

“Without Santos doing any further work towards commercialization in 2022”

That’s just not accurate, because they will be conducting extended production flow tests into 2022. Won’t this involve detailed further appraisal work on the well performance profile? Presumably if successful, will lead to a major discovery announcement and further, conversion of resource into reserves.

I suspect if they conceded this timeframe Santos probably had no further plans for T1-3 this year anyway. Switching focus to Marvrick, instead, which is the key focus for 2022.

This is just Sabre rattling as to who’s got the biggist willie in the Beetaloo…

new,
I'd like to fantasize if Tambo/Santos have a hiccup in the drilling Origin could pickup their guys and have them work on the Orgin/Falcon prospect. One can dream.....

JS490 -- while this is largely a Santos problem for sure, there is no question it is a set back for Tamboran and for all the Beetaloo players. Without Santos doing any further work towards commercialization in 2022 -- all players in the Beetaloo will feel the impact of that decision. This includes Tamboran -- who were counting on Santos to drill two more horizontals this year on EP 161 of which Tamboran is a 25% owner.

It appears, (from the additional map link below) -- that Tambo's proposed Maverick well is just on the border of the Tanumbirini Station and the Beetaloo Station, but does look to be on the Beetaloo Station side from the attached map. This would indicate that Tamboran should have no issues moving forward with the Maverick well this year -- (which helps all Beetaloo players) -- provided that the flow rates from the current Santos horizontals are above the 3 mm cf/d minimum threshold.

https://ca.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/957820/tamboran-resources-welcomes-successful-drilling-completion-of-tanumbirini-2h-well-by-santos-957820.html

It seems to me that's largely Santos' problem. They're the one who made that deal with the Court settlement, ...not Tamboran.

Luckily for Tamboran, they plan on drilling the Maverick 1-H well this year on their 100% owned and operated EP136 permit, ... the northern portion of which is smack dab in the heart of the 'Core Beetaloo'. ; )

jmo

Santos appears to have a fairly large area on the southern half of EP 161 that is NOT on Tanumbirini Station lands. This -- hopefully indicates that Santos will continue with some sort of drilling campaign this spring in areas that don't conflict with their agreement with the pastoral lease holders of Tanumbirnini Station. However, the areas outside of the Tanumbirini Station lands appear to be well outside the core area -- so not sure what Santos will do this spring -- if anything??

Here are two maps if anyone is interested in comparing them to confirm that the southern part of EP 161 is outside the tile makers cow pasture. The first map link below is from the NT Gov't's site showing all pastoral leases and you can see the Carpenteria Hwy passing through the bottom portion of Tanumbirini Station's property.

https://nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/206089/map-of-council-boundaries.pdf

The second map link below is from Santos EMP and you have to go to page ix to compare the two maps. It is very clear that there is a reasonably large "L" shaped section of EP 161 that is below the Carpenteria Hwy and is not on the tile manufacturer's cow pasture.

https://depws.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/611813/EMP-santos-north-water-bore-monitoring-program.pdf

The only real concern that I can see from the map link below -- is that it appears that the Core Area that Tamboran has been promoting appears to be almost entirely on the Tanumbirini Station lands. The big "L" section, on the lower part of EP 161, looks to be outside the Core by a wide margin??

https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/article/14188828/tamboran-gains-operatorship-beetaloo-assets-with-sweetpea-acquisition

Great analysis BorntoBouggie.
Atb,
Northern

Good turnover in London this week. Relatively little in the US OTC market. a bit more on the TSX.

Hydro's satellite pictures, for which we're all grateful , show that gas continues to flow to the surface at the Santos/ Tamboran Tanumbirini EP161 site. Santos own 30 day readings at the end of this month are now increasingly eagerly awaited Down Under on the ASX and this has been similarly mirrored this week on the TSX and AIM on our side of the world. Origin's shares this week, no surprise, after the return of many to their desks after their Summer break, has started to anticipate possible good news since the relative strength of their shares is clearly not just a reflection of strong energy prices.

The Santos news, when it comes, will tell us where Origin and FOG shares are going in 2022 and 1H 2023. Any repeat of Origin/Falcon's flows in the Amungee well in 2016 and August/September 2021 will transform analysts Beetaloo Basin perceptions and convince most to adjust their spread sheets not just to reflect increased pay grades across the Beetaloo and Greater McArthur properties but also the need to apply lower discount rates to their numbers as the probability of commercial development would have substantially increased. And the two together of course will give us our higher NPV's and a big bounce in the shares of all the companies involved.

Sometimes on this board investors have been critical of Origin's thorough approach and unwillingness to carry on in any way in a cavalier fashion. Last year (unlike EEG) they did not get mixed up in jumping the gun to obtain money on offer from the Federal Government without full compliance to the rules. They also do not have a similar problem as Santos this week of leaving themselves open to a property speculator acquiring a piece of Origin/Falcon land and holding parties to ransom. I rather shudder to think how exposed we might have been if Bruner and his cronies were still running Falcon today.

Nevertheless the Santos legal case is still an irritant but how great an irritant we'll have to wait to see as it will be dependent on how large the farmer's land is and how much it overlaps the Santos/Tamboran acreage.

IMHO Origin?FOG investors' focus in the next two weeks will focus more on the fact that we have the same geology as prevalent at EP161 everywhere across our 4.6 million acres in the Beetaloo Basin. In some areas the depth of the mid-Velkeri B shale formation is not so great as EP161. In others its very similar. In all areas the thickness of the 'mid Velkeri' B shale formation is circa 50 metres or more and very similar to the Santos/Tamboran properties.

Overall I remain quite hopeful. Many of you should feel the same.

Of course they will continue elsewhere on Ep161. this is just the land owner trying to flex a bit of muscle /control.
It strikes me as being largely without merit as there was no apparent award at to compensation, just the legal costs .

"..and agreed not to undertake any further petroleum activities on EP161 at Tanumbirini Station until December 31, 2022."

Note: AT Tanumbirini Station.

I view this as they still may be able to conduct petroleum operations elsewhere in EP161.

Plus, they will continue to have these two current horizontals on long-term production tests.

jmo

Well Tamboran's Share price didnt move on this news did it.. Not sure its anything other than the court settlement given in the family leverage over Santos so they get more money going forward.

This Ravazzotti family got rich, no less from industry burning shed loads gas, making Italian tiles for mass market.

This is about money nothing else.

And the Tamboran flare is burning very brightly - see my post this am and vimeo films of the flare stacks this am

Giovanni Ravazzotti is chairman of Italtile of South Africa, the ceramics company he founded after moving to Johannesburg from Italy. In 1969, Ravazzotti saw the need for affordable tiles and ceramic products in an increasingly urban South Africa. He began importing and retailing them through Italtile. Ten years later, with the first hints that there would be trade sanctions against South Africa in the wake of the 1976 Soweto uprising, he began manufacturing ceramic tiles domestically. In 1992, Italtile was listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Ravazzotti keeps a very low profile, especially since his son and heir Gian-Paolo Ravazzotti died in a plane crash in 2011. In 2014, Nick Booth took the reigns as CEO of Italitie, and Ravazzotti became chairman. He has maintained dual South African and Italian citizenship. He has been chairman of the Italian South African Chamber of Trade and Industries. In 2009 he was decorated Cavaliere in the Order Al Merito della Repubblica Italiana.

ITguy and hydro -- it looks to me like there is something seriously wrong with the Santos settlement. Santos has drilled only four of it's nine well program to date and now they have agreed to do nothing until the beginning of the next wet season??? No E&P operations start at the very beginning of the moonsoons folks -- so what the heck is happening at the two Tanumburini wells that has Tamboran's share price stuck exactly where it has been for weeks???

"The court had heard Santos had permission for nine fracking wells on the cattle station, which had been negotiated with the previous owner, but had failed to inform Rallen of the revisions to the EMP which added the additional two wells".

https://www.google.com/search?q=tamboran+resources+share+price&rlz=1C1CHZN_enCA931CA931&oq=&aqs=chrome.3.35i39i362l7.152801164j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

New, maybe they like what they see and they will make a deal with Tamboran for EP136?

NEWTFO it is CLEARLY just an agreement brokered during the court case - ie nothing to do with the commerciality or operation of the wells :

"Santos will continue to flow test the two wells in question and agreed not to undertake any further petroleum activities on EP161 at Tanumbirini Station until December 31, 2022"

Villa and ITguy -- this update on Santos backing out of the Beetaloo completely until almost a year from now is REALLY disappointing news. This means no further work towards commercialization by Santos in 2022 and has to make you wonder what has happened at the two horizontal wells that has Santos so concerned that they aren't ramping up but actually ramping down???

Interesting IT guy -

So behind Rallen is this 'eccentric' multimillionaire family... https://www.domain.com.au/news/south-african-heiress-luciana-ravazzotti-smashes-belrose-record-buying-8m-house-981709/

NOW Don't tell me that this lot don't want to make more money.. $17m to $440k bit of kick in the teeth by the supreme court really ... After all I mean, they'll 'need the gas' to fill the tanks of their 'eclectic 12 car collection'. lol

"The newly purchased ( $8m ) six-bedroom mansion comes complete with a swimming pool, tennis court, a 12-car showroom-style garage as befitted Wills’ eclectic car collection and an art studio of his late wife, Margaret Wills, the acclaimed artist who died last year".

"The family’s Rallen Australia company, a subsidiary of Ravazzotti’s Rallen Pty Ltd, has invested heavily in Northern Territory cattle farms in recent years, accumulating more than one million hectares of leasehold pastoral land."

Yeah, we know why they bought up swathes of this barren land... to make a load of wonga out of beef and gas fracking ....

Ffs. Some people. PMSL

Nice gaff tho.

Santos agreed not to undertake any further petroleum activities on EP161 at( Tanumbirini Station )until December 31, 2022.

Tamboran is drilling 100% owned EP136 in 2022 though.

https://ntindependent.com.au/santos-agrees-to-pay-400k-to-rallen-over-beetaloo-basin-gas-wells/

They wanted $17m..settled for $400k. But after current flow testing, no more work on EP161 in 2022.