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Who's arguing? Just going by what was said by a CEO. All those big boys in the game ain't going to settle for .50...lol
A sale price would be based on profitable recoverable gas. Talk of multi T reserves is just talk until the economics are proven. You can't prove economics without having producing wells. After you have producing wells then you book reserves and then you can argue about P3 numbers and buyout pricing.
And they didn't have a producing well then either. POQ never intended to have a producing well. It has never been his gameplan for FO. Producing wells were the gameplan (or BS) of Brunner.
Really nothing has changed since that was said (rewarding long term holders) and the fundamentals are still in place. And gas and energy is even more at a premium than when that was said. I am not talking about day to day stock price. I am talking about sale price. Couldn't care less about current stock price or the pump and dumpers here with their frilly tutus and pom poms.
To put things into perspective, If FOG were to be valued @ $5 Australian, that would add $17.22 billion Aus to Origins valuation. As of today they are valued at $9.47 billion, with an integrated multi faceted portfolio. The Beetaloo will never add this type of valuation to Origin. Realistically, imo, a $1 Falcon stock price would be more in line with reality, and adding $3.44 billion to Origins bottom line as well. Unfortunately many here will never recoup their original investment, but hopefully it wont hurt as much when the final # is revealed. GLA
Guernica, just to remind you of the obvious fact in the room. FOG hasn't made one producing well in over 20 years. You have to expect the share price to reflect that fact. FOG is more similar to a royalty holder than a producer, with the notable exception we have very expensive place-sitting help.
$5 is what is longs were reassured. I have been in this since 2005 and I can assure you that was said. That is why I don't understand these short-termers saying 50 cents. Most longs would not be voting for this. POQ has said that the long term share holders would be rewarded. How is rewarded meaning taking half of what you paid for them???
Thank you Superspazz for your message.
If we get 5 dollars for our Falcon shares and I wish it very much (and I don't care if it's US / Australia or Canada dollars), then I include you and POQ in my (then) post-prayers.
I totally agree with you, without hope for a good and fat happy ending in our purse we would not have bought the share and would not be in this forum (which I really find a great enrichment for us Falcon shareholders and also fun to exchange with each other).
Best regards
Beetaloo
Beetaloo
Thanks for the optimism!!! I've always told my kids to "dare to dream" and that dreaming big comes at no extra cost. That having been said, from my economics days, is that supply, demand and value are funny things. And that sometimes (when you want to clear 100% of something) the last 22.5%, (shortage from the 100%), comes at a very steep curve.
Thankfully....your math works out good for me too! Much more then drip, drip, drip and no plumber on the team to manage the leak.
Although, the one and only time I met POQ, he suggested a target of $5, but at that time, that would get you 6 liters of gas, now 3.2.
But Dream on my friend, its a good thing to do!
Hi Superspazz,
your calculation would be very nice.
Unfortunately, it is not really realistic.
I'm a big fan of round numbers to make the process simple and, as English is not my first language, I find it a bit difficult.
But I'll give it a try.
Falcon currently has around 1 billion shares, Origin around 2 billion shares.
Once Origin has fulfilled its obligations, it will have about 78 per cent of our Beetaloo.
This is about 3 times as many as Falcon.
So for every Origin share, there is about 1.5 times more Beetaloo than for every Falcon share (my former economics teacher would tear my head off with this illustration... but I don't care now).
Now let's not forget that Origin has a lot of assets other than the Beetaloo stake (e.g. the sale of the 10% stake in Austrlien LNG for around $2 billion is only a fraction of Origin's other holdings). Sure, the company also has liabilities.
So I would be more than happy (provided it turns out to be very nice) with a swap of 2 Falcons for 1 Origin (unrealistic) . Maybe even 3 to 1.
But to get even more from money.... the Origin shareholders would certainly not throw nice words to the board of Origin.
Also, let's not forget that if Beetaloo flies, this will also affect the value of Origin's shares and the value of Origin.
My wish or dream: 1 dollar per Falcon share and a swap and 1 Origin share for 4 or 5 of my Falcon shares.
Then there should probably be some early retirees or new golfers in this forum.
Thank you for understanding that this is just my thoughts and a very simplified presentation in a foreign language of my view!
Best regards
Beetaloo
In case anyone plans on asking, I would be delighted to be the recipient of $2 per share plus one share of Origin for 2 shares of my Falcon, but the $2 plus one for one has a better ring to it. It would still be a wise use of that 10% sale agreement!
This strikes me as implying very important news for Beetaloo… stay tuned!
22 October 2021
Origin agrees sale of 10 per cent interest in Australia Pacific LNG
for $2.12 billion
Origin Energy Limited (Origin) has executed an agreement with global energy investor, EIG,
to sell a 10 per cent shareholding in Australia Pacific LNG for $2.12 billion1
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20211025/pdf/4520wxx6cvrpcd.pdf
Origin raise a few billlion for and I quote - 'while allowing Origin to accelerate investment in growth opportunities'
It will be really interesting to see how the balance of positive results starts to effect confidence and hence valuation. Presumably the more drilling and the more they learn the n the better the results will.become. Hoping so anyway.
Atb,
Northern
Newtofo ..Many thanks for clearly spelling out what might lie ahead. It brings together a number of different stands to consider.
I believe that in the next week or two -- we should get an update on what the DFIT tests are indicating for the flank well at EP 76. Hopefully the vertical frack results are encouraging, but not so encouraging that Origin is temped to move away from a full length horizontal to prove up commerciality in the mid-Velkerri -- either at the Amungee site or possibly the W1 site.
After the update on the EP 76 DFIT test results -- there will be some very long stretches with almost no news. There will be some sort of minor update from the upcoming AGM -- hopefully with a clear outline for exactly what Origin will be working on in 2022 to prove commerciality. Then -- we will all be holding our breath -- waiting on Santos to give us some great news from one or possibly both of their horizontals in late December or into the beginning of the New Year.
The Santos update is of course the most important and will most likely be the last really significant piece of news until next Spring -- so it had better be great news to carry the stock price up 50% or more before the day traders start bringing it back down again.
For all long term holders -- there is a slim chance that this might be another opportunity to sell on good Santos news with a view to buying back lower a week or three later. However, this might also be when POQ starts to seriously entertain offers for Falcon's 22.5% as all the stars may be lining up in Falcon's favour if Santos shows true commercial potential.
With the currently expected higher for longer on gas prices worldwide -- we now have many more countries and large E&P players looking for the largest sources of gas resources in democratic countries that have rational laws governing export contracts like Australia -- which is the closest to Asia for secure long term LNG contracts. We now have all sides of the Australian and NT governments firmly on board with moving the Beetaloo gas to market as quickly as possible. We now have four major E&P players fully committed to proving up commerciality in the Beetaloo. For these reasons -- we could potentially see a realistic and serious offer being presented to POQ earlier in 2022 than was previously expected.
There is also the very real possibility that Origin may significantly improve Falcon's valuation in the New Year -- if the Santos results are as expected. Origin has full authority to go ahead with a Farm-Down agreement across the Falcon permits. If this farm-down includes both a significant cash injection and a very long term drilling commitment by a third party E&P player (like Chevron or many others) -- then Falcon's 22.5% share will take a huge jump in value and the interest by players like Inpex will increase as well.