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I can only speculate as to why it’s down: POQ, seeking to extend his $600k risk-free annual annuity (his salary), is speaking to institutions to invest in FOG. The institutions have zero incentive to purchase shares in the open market today, since they’ll soon be able to subscribe to an offering at a deep discount to today’s price. In fact, they have incentive to SELL or SHORT into the open market and cover their shares with the offering.
Good for the institutions; bad for mere mortals on chat boards. Right?
Hope someone accumulates here in uk
Got to love the pricing. 11 trades over 80% of the volume this morning at 11.50 or over. Latest trade at 11.15 and price drops to that level. Until we get proper volume we won't fly
Dont worry about that. Now we have tailwind and the proven flow favours us.
It's only a question of time. More and more people will know about Falcon. I guess we will see a steady increase, until new resoults are released and then we just fly.
BTW, I am one of those who bought at 4$ just the first few shares, and now I see the light at the end of the tunnel, apparently not a train approaching.
Tambo back up 20% today.
Good to see the Aussie market responding to the result.
"TBN sees it as the largest undeveloped gas resource in the world."
There are certainly a lot of interesting parallels to the Marcellus and other US shales. Maybe the biggest issues keeping values down is investors desire for cash flow and certainty. However, I am with most of the group here that this play is looking promising. THe first HZ well in the Marcellus was drilled by Range in 2006. There are a few interesting stats on the Marcellus at https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/marcellus-shale-10547#:~:text=The%20Renz%20Unit%20%231%2C%20the,horizontal%20Marcellus%20well%20in%20Pennsylvania.
By the close of 2007, Range had drilled 44 vertical and 15 horizontal wells in the Marcellus play and invested about $200 million. The Marcellus was real, although it took some in the industry another year to fully appreciate the black shale’s potential.
and at https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2022/01_27/, including:
The initial production rate of natural gas from a new well drilled in the Marcellus Formation in the Appalachia Basin increased from about 5.6 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2014 to approximately 15.8 MMcf/d in 2020, based on well-level data from Enverus.
GLA!!!
By adjusting, or normalizing, for these longer lateral lengths, we can assess increased well productivity from improved completion designs. Improved completion designs can include different proppant sizes and types, larger or varied water and gel mixes to carry the proppant throughout the induced fractures, and improved hydraulic fracturing techniques that allow better fracture propagation. Based on the normalized well productivity data, we calculate that the initial production rate from the average Marcellus natural gas well has been increasing by approximately 27% to 31% biyearly over the past six years for which complete data are available to build the decline profiles.
It would seem that the market is going to wait for the more important 90 day test.
The news is fantastic, but did anything really change today? ....no. What did change, is the real proven potential of an incredible asset for a large player looking to profit for years to come. So we all enjoy this day, and keep what just happened in perspective. The day traders will make a penny or two selling, and what goes up with Falcon always is brought back down by trading days end. I have always believed somebody is behind the curtain keeping our stock price low. That is the best way to get us for less in the end. What we all have to decide, is what is that price. We are much closer to that day.
Compared this to Helium HE1 stock which went ballistic for 300% if I remember correctly only few weeks back
Just shows there is no herd here or anybody know about falcon
Big shame
Cam, Hard to stomach. Been waiting years for this day. Years for the good flow rates and after finally getting them- the stock is down. Hoping things get better but there is obviously nobody watching this stock!
Here's one Camelot for Tamboran from Hannam & Partners showing a risked NAV of 64 aussie cents and an unrisked NAV of $4.11 aussie dollars (seems a pretty big stretch, but that includes the LNG terminal down the line I believe).
https://www.tamboran.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Beetaloo-commerciality-proven-with-SS-1H-well_260224.pdf
Both Cavendish and Tennyson should have updated reports tomorrow after digesting the awesome news and POQ's Investor Meets session (along with the disappointing trading today I would assume).
While the news was really quite good, the trading was lackluster. Best news for years ! One thing that I noticed was that I don't believe Cavendish or Tennyson put out any new research or comments? Why I wonder? Can anyone offer an explanation
Buckeye Buff : How much do ceo,s normally get paid , wise up .GLA
Darn it -- but WillowGrove was right yesterday -- in that my old adage "you can always always buy Falcon cheaper" is back -- sheesh.
Falcon is trading done a 1/2 cent on the TSX, down in the US, and Tamboran is down in Aussieland. That is after this awesome news on flow rates and Marcellus comparisons that are finally showing us that all the Beetaloo hype is bang on after 14 years of waiting. -- (I am gob smacked, and the few I needed to sell for 40 cents Cdn doesn't look good -- LOL).
Derrick -- if you need to know if Mathys still holds his approximately 3% of Falcon -- just send an email in to POQ and I am sure you will get a reply if those holdings are still registered with the company.
Some of this selling on all four exchanges (Tamboran too) appears to be retail punters taking very tiny profits and moving on -- with maybe a view to buying back next year when there might be a better chance for an outright sale??
While POQ didn't give us any real clarity on when a sale might take place -- he did throw out some good hints!! If the next two 3 km horizontals are prolific (as the JV partners now fully expect) then an outright sale of Falcon's 22.5% interest could be in the cards by next year at this time or shortly after.
Any of the punters that are selling now for a few cents profit on their investment may not realize that this awesome flow rate news and very strong comparisons to the best of the Marcellus -- is going to spread like wildfire across America and then Asia and finally Japan.
The chances of a deep pockets company like EQT, Chesapeake, or Inpex (and many others) making a "snap" bid for all of Falcon's interest in the Beetaloo over the next while have NEVER been greater than they are now with this spectacular world class flow announcement!!! Any bid by one of these majors could easily be in the range of one billion dollars and that kind of offer would have to be taken to Falcon's BOD for serious consideration. Keep in mind that companies like EQT and Inpex have very deep pockets -- and that Inpex spent $35 billion in Darwin and now needs another 5 TCF of gas to expand in Darwin.
OC99-Good to see your comments, rather than the usual 'way too positive, in the know posters', always willing to provide Philip cover. I too have been in since Bruner and a share price high of $6.24 in May 2006, when there was nothing but his BS. Now we look at $1.00 as accptable, when there's an actual underlying asset??? Obviously the potential dilution of a raise is a big damper on today's stock activity, especially following the recent % run. Being down today after confirmation of the anticipated good news is a huge disappointment! Philip may be OK waiting another few years with his $600K+ Falcon income, but I'm just hoping to realize investment success while still above ground.
Does Mathy's still own FOG shares?
Something in my head says today's muted response in down to Mathy's selling down. I'm temped to sell some myself and buy back lower. Any way to check?
There are certainly a lot of interesting parallels to the Marcellus and other US shales. Maybe the biggest issues keeping values down is investors desire for cash flow and certainty. However, I am with most of the group here that this play is looking promising. THe first HZ well in the Marcellus was drilled by Range in 2006. There are a few interesting stats on the Marcellus at https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/marcellus-shale-10547#:~:text=The%20Renz%20Unit%20%231%2C%20the,horizontal%20Marcellus%20well%20in%20Pennsylvania.
By the close of 2007, Range had drilled 44 vertical and 15 horizontal wells in the Marcellus play and invested about $200 million. The Marcellus was real, although it took some in the industry another year to fully appreciate the black shale’s potential.
and at https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2022/01_27/, including:
The initial production rate of natural gas from a new well drilled in the Marcellus Formation in the Appalachia Basin increased from about 5.6 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2014 to approximately 15.8 MMcf/d in 2020, based on well-level data from Enverus.
GLA!!!
By adjusting, or normalizing, for these longer lateral lengths, we can assess increased well productivity from improved completion designs. Improved completion designs can include different proppant sizes and types, larger or varied water and gel mixes to carry the proppant throughout the induced fractures, and improved hydraulic fracturing techniques that allow better fracture propagation. Based on the normalized well productivity data, we calculate that the initial production rate from the average Marcellus natural gas well has been increasing by approximately 27% to 31% biyearly over the past six years for which complete data are available to build the decline profiles.
Nothing surprising. Nice to hear goal is to still sell the asset. I thinking the potential blue only increases with more successful wells. I heard we will proceed forward with the next two and good results will increase any potential sale. I didn’t expect this to be the end. We have great result and while I had hoped to see lots of green today that may not be the case. But I do think we will continue to up over the next few weeks as more articles are written and valuations are made. We are 100% in a better place than last week. And hopefully it will only get better from here. Cheers.
I joined the call about 5 minutes late. I didn’t experience any technical issues. POQ had very prepared answers to every question. I’ve been here too long. Not surprised by any of the answers. I’m disappointed we’ve been here so long (14+ yrs for me)….and are still being told hang in there for another 2-3 years. I acknowledge some of the delays have been completely out of the control of the company. It’s just really hard to put a reasonable future valuation on this with all the confounding variables. If POQ would have thrown us a bone to offer a floor value/back of napkin future share price, it would be easier to know if it’s worth hanging on another few years. My concern is a capital raise is inevitable, if not already in the works. When I first purchased (under Bruners promotion) this was going to $30USD. After the farm down, I was thinking $3-5 was reasonable. Now 14 years later I’m not sure if $1USD is a guarantee and we’re still being told that the valuation is building. I just don’t have any idea anymore what a reasonable valuation would be. Would just be nice to have been provided some guidance on market cap if they meet minimum expectations with no major setbacks.
The questions were asked and the questions were answered , that is the sole purpose of a Q&A . Cannot make it better than it actually is . More patience required , anyway spring is coming , something to be cheerful about GLA .
Very unprofessional Q&A.
Philip handled himself well but there were technical issues with the feed which was seriously annoying.
And where did they get the young dork who asked the questions. So irritating. He is obviously inexperienced, lacking in industry knowledge and his repeated thanking of Philip for each answer was painful.
Personally I got zero out of the Q&A.
Anyone else feel different ?
That’s Aim for you. Perhaps shorts, if any will need to get out. Day traders etc. STHs.
Stellar news, Marcellus comparable, I’m surprised we’re not down. Give it a couple of days.
GORDON GEKO greed is good.
Jeez what a load of bullocks!
Best news in falcons history and a mere 5%
I hope this motors in coming sessions as nobody seems , apart from long termers here, understands the significance of the news.
Perhaps some institutions can load up at the cheap price for future.