Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Well it is of you think someone on this board is going to nail the trajectory or heaps of unknowns. Gov appetite and oversight, geology, drilling process, investor appetite, timing, personalities etc.
However if you come to the board to widen your perspective and get some insights, debate, challenges from others then I think it's really valuable.
Personally I'm not one to follow or look to follow blindly bit I do appreciate all the debate and dialogue as it helps me make my decision on the likely outcome and set my risk parameters.
I think we are all a little sore after the recent share price movement but no point in venting in the wrong direction.
On the raise point I think a raise would actually increase our share price long term. If you are and investor who would you rather invest in a company without the means to carry out the full pilot or a company that has the means to financially support itself. I think a 10% dilution would amount to at least a 30% share price increase and would be well worth it.
Either way we don't need to do anything. If we sit out on the pilot program and it's successful our acreage becomes way more valuable and if we do participate we start potentially generating cash in 2026.
I'm loving all the thoughts and scenario modelling.
It's going to be an exciting year for sure.
One thing’s for sure to me after 10+ years, following the prognostications on this board is a complete waste of time.
Has the news spread like “wildfire”? Where is the buy in? Sheesh
Long, no worries I like good discussion. Keeps me learning. Personally, I think POQ has stepped in crap too many times by promoting and things not going his way. I think he is wise to sit back and focus on the end game. We have the numbers. FOG will get promoted through research reports and articles.
Wet, are you sure both wells will be opened at the same time? Ill have to go back to TBN’s presentation but that was not how I understood it. TY!
805. I'm not arguing with you but I don't see ANY scenario where raising funds does NOT impact the current shareholders. What I agree about is that this is no reason for the price to go down. Maybe to not have as much upside- sure. Anyone following this stock (and there are very few) knew that there would be a raise eventually. The news was good. There's no reason for the stock to go down except people (and probably many on this board) simply sold on the news and the VERY low volume caused it to drop. There is NO buying interest of any real size in this stock. This is where POQ needs to generate interest. He told us at the last well mtg w the "skin issue" that he had expected that well to perform well and to see a corresponding SP increase. There's no reason to think we shouldn't have seen it here other than there is just no interest. POQ needs to get out there and start drumming some up. There must be some talks where companies say "hey if you get to this point we'd like to talk to you".
Depends how it is done. Depends what price the shares are sold at, will they negotiate anti dilution protection, and many other possible factors. My point, is simply its not going to be as bad as the market seems to think. It’s always been the case FOG would need more money. So, I don’t see this need as the rational for the price drop. And I believe it will have minimal impact on our asset sale price when the day comes.
805- ok how do we do it w "minimal" dilution? If we wanted to raise $13M we'd have to issue at least another 100M shares- a 10pct increase. Or are you considering 10 pct "minimal"?
Long, I said minimal. Of the option is the least impactful. I am not ruling out selling future gas production but that seems unlikely to me.
Bloobird -- the most likely scenario for a Falcon sale (if it is for Falcon's entire 22.5% of the Beetaloo) would be a complete sale of Falcon Canada -- where the Falcon holding company is registered. This would then only have a single tax implication in Canada, but if Falcon Australia was the only entity sold then there would be Australian and Canadian taxes to pay, (so much more tax efficient to sell the Canadian holding company).
The Karoo assets (worth about 2 cents right now) could be spun off to a Newco with all Falcon shareholders getting a pro-rata share in the Newco at the time of dissolution. That spinoff would most likely depend on whether there was even a glimmer of a chance that the South African gov't can ever get the shale gas legislation passed -- (without handing all potential profits in the Karoo away completely to the local black 50% participation requirement that are planned)??
shalamar9 -- just in case WW is busy with real life -- (instead of Falcon's never ending story LOL) -- the answer to your question is YES -- we will get an IP 30 rate most likely on both wells, but for sure on one of them. The news on how those wells have performed with be a very big news event for both POQ and for Riddle -- so they won't miss that opportunity. One of the two is supposed to be put on a full year flow rate, but that doesn't preclude the news being released on the 30 day flow rate at all.
Hi WW,
Just a quick question for clarification on your excellent post - Will we get an IP30 rate for both of these initial pilot wells before they are closed up awaiting production in 2026 ?
TIA
805- please explain how we do a private equity raise with no dilution to the current shareholders? WW. A 4X between now and selling? Seems like a weak sale for us long term holders.
Up to what the buyer wants and is willing to pay.
I started this thread with a question so does anyone know the answer ?
The 22% of Beetaloo is owned by Falcon Oil and Gas Australia.
Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Limited is a c. 98% subsidiary of Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
Question :- Would the whole of FOG be up for sale or just the Australian subsidiary ?
All buys today - let’s hope we get back to where we stared yesterday!!
Just to let everyone know, I’m really clued up about Falcon, was 25% up on Monday, I topped up last week and bought gain at 10% down yesterday. You know it was a stellar result. Been waiting an age for that news. Happy with Phillips meeting. The price is now lower on stellar news and I managed to bin 23% profit in a day. Go figure because I cant. Got to be a raise, we can’t dilute the % holding anymore. Funnily enough not concerned, frustrated yes, but just more time to wait and I’ve got a lot less of that than when I first invested. Onto Cheltenham.
805slo: I agree with what you posted but want to add one minor point and a few other comments. The two 3K wells to be drilled this year will both be drilled/cased back-to-back before they are fracked back-to-back. We therefore won't see the IP flow rate of the first well before the second is drilled/cased. With Liberty being capable of fracking 5-6 stages a day, it won't take too long (~ two weeks) to actually frack (60 stages) of the SS-2H well and then proceed to the SS-3H well. Even at fracking/clean-up, from what I understand, these wells after completion will all be shut-in until all 6 wells are drilled/fracked and the gas processing plant is in place along with the pipeline connection.
As far as the selling, I believe it was all the distressed shares along with the hot money looking for a quick profit. I suspect that we will soon see the end of the selling pressure and then the stock should begin to rebound. I'm not familiar with the London and Canadian market but as 805slo indicated, not many shares were even sold on the US market today - I believe only about $65K - just not any buyers yet.
I feel more optimistic, relaxed than ever about Falcon - that 6.4mmcf/d flow rate was as mentioned a 'stellar' rate. Falcon has sufficient funds to drill the next two wells before it has to go for another raise - I suspect by that point with a couple of 3K 18-20mmcf/d wells under their belt the stock price will be in much better shape if Falcon is still around by then - if not, I'm confident that Falcon will be sold before all 4 wells are drilled next year - Falcon has a sell by 1/1/26 date.
Also don't forget the sole clause rights of Falcon - after the first of the 4 wells in 2025, I believe Falcon could opt out and only loose the production of the following three wells having already earned the 6400 acre participation block surrounding the first well - that production on two=three wells is not going to affect the purchase price of Falcon's 22.5% of 4.6 million acres. - Someone check me on that!
If I had the available funds, I would be buying right here - with this current price I can see at least a 4X return by the time we sell. Falcon owns 22.5% of "The Largest Undeveloped' Shale field in the world. This last week we got a peek under the blanket at what this gigantic field holds. Would anyone care to guess how many 3K wells can be drilled on the current 1-million-acre deeper horizon? Likely about 2000 wells in the Velkerri B alone! And then as Philip said, the Amungee field with its 5mmcf/d normalized rate is no slacker. Some company/conglomerate is going to want Falcon's 22.5% of this its potential concession.
Falcon will raise money via private equity and it will have a minimal impact on share dilution. They are not going to farm down nor will they have to with these flow rates. They nailed flow rates that took many many wells for others to achieve in other areas. And I have been critical of the folks involved. I can’t explain the lack of stock movement but it appears here in the US most of the sales were were small holders. You could watch a sale of a few thousand dollars of stock push the price down a few percentage points. In two days of trading, less shares have been moved then many of us hold. If FOG and TAM nail the next two wells FOG will be sold. Actually, I think if they nail the first one our story ends. There will be no further dilution or anything. They will be sold. 12-18 months. I didn’t understand the rational to sell last week…and I certainly do not understand the rational to sell now. The geology is there. The rate is there. A few more successes and folks will be rewarded. I will be buying more. Personally, I see right now as a very rare opportunity. Obviously, there is still some risk. But I think those who hold and accumulate will be rewarded. And absent a government shutdown or another pandemic, its going to happen within 18 months max IMO. Happy investing;)
If Falcon was to be put up for sale, would it be a) Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Limited or b) Falcon Oil & Gas Limited ?
If it is a) then Falcon would still own the prospect in South Africa.
TBN spiked to 25 right after news, only to fall back to 19 the next day. Been creeping back up now. I think same will play out for FO
Newtofo!
Pleasure to read some words from you. But please, don't make me laugh. I want you to live a long and happy life. We dont have to worry as the Falcon dream will materialise soon (1-3yrs).
I am 100% convinced that your adage will bring me nice buying opportunities soon. But I doubt the SP will go down to CAD 0.10-0.12, my preferred buying zone.
Hey Marsh -- I think you might be in luck as my old adage of "you can always always buy Falcon cheaper" appears to be back and in full force again.
I was positive after the news on Sunday that the adage was dead and gone, but now think that I might be dead and gone before my adage is -- LOL.
Derrik, I wasn't smart enough either. First, didn't sell all my Falcons and still hold some (in the profit zone, though). Second, could have sold when they tripled, but didn't.
Since Sunday, I definitely want more Falcons in my portfolio.
I wish i was smart enough to do that!
Hahaha, not quite, WG.
I had a lot of Falcons for a long time and sold them after they doubled. Wanted to get back in but the price was too high.
I think one thing we learned is the SP ceiling is not really affected by the flow results although the floor would have been dropped by bad results. It's taken us 10+ years to realize this and now we need to know what WILL raise the price? A buyout hopefully. More good results? Maybe- but we thought that before. Actual cash flow? You would think so. But somehow POQ has to monetize this company for the shareholders.
You’ve been waiting for what for 10 years? For the stock to drop 30%? Congratulations!!!