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RNS re Shetty's NMC holding - step by step muddy waters are getting clearer ;)
KOH
Yup, it's doing really well considering the circumstances. This is a solid business, just caught in the middle of the perfect storm. It will be fine if one's willing to wait a while. I wish I had more spare funds, I'd be topping up all day at these levels.
KOH
Not necessarily. Let's wait for the trading update and a bit more clarity re NMC. This is hugely undervalued and great buying opportunity at these levels. Besides the whole FTSE is down over 3.5% today so we actually outperform the index. I don't even consider selling at these levels, it is worth much much more.
KOH
Given the current market climate and the impact to travel related organisations, FIN could well drop a bit lower as investors pull out of riskier shares and go to safer places, such as gold. I continue to hold, but it's certainly a long term (1-2 year) prospect for me now.
Agree, got £1 minimum written all over this short term! That's why I've got £20k at 74p in my sipp
Do think its worth more than 100 if everything is normal
___
Let's wait and see, hopefully it will be back to "normal" soon.
KOH
Not really "50:50"..
I have been holding/ trading from 129 and chased this down. Managed a top up at 65 but still more than £5k down. With oil and and div stocks also being pummeled its risky, thats all. Do think its worth more than 100 if everything is normal
Not really "50:50" if you hold for a while IMO, perhaps "50:50" in the very short term....
This should never have dropped below 100p and it wouldn't if Travelex attack didn't happen. 183m EBITDA in the first 9 months + services already recovered. Crazy valuation at the moment, huge bargain. This is a legitimate company, just caught in the middle of the perfect storm that is suffering due to what's happened to NMC. Governance issues are temporary by definition and easily fixable, as long as books are not cooked and they perform well, it just has to re- rate at some point. Even if Shetty wanted to sell it they will do their best to drive the price up first. IMO.
KOH
Mistake or good move?..noone knows.. 50:50 gamble imo.
Not sure if I want to be in this over the weekend or not! Topped up at 71p. Mistake or good move? Any more worms in the wood work/skeletons in the closet? Hmm... wait and see...…. GLA
Trading update potentially next week, full year results around mid April.
KOH
When are the full year results?
Longish
Yeah, same old same old....They've been "seeking clarity" for some time now, nothing really changed.
On the 19th company confirmed that "The independent directors have been informed that the Shetty family and their advisers are not yet in a position fully to respond to them but have undertaken to do so as soon as possible" and that they are "seeking to resolve the position by the end of February 2020 at the latest."
Let's wait and see. I know from experience those things can take a lot of time and it's not necessarily a bad thing. Freeh was employed to provide independent opinion and add credibility, last statutory financials were fine according to EY.
KOH
'The independent directors are seeking to resolve the position by the end of February 2020 at the latest. '
Should not be long to wait, and once this sorry 'saga' is done and dusted, more normal trading can hopefully resume.
KOH
..'The Company continues urgently to seek clarity from each of Dr Shetty, Khaleefa Bin Butti and H.E. Saeed Bin Butti in relation to their respective shareholdings'..
I agree its speculation, but the system of governance and internal controls within the group and in particular within Fin should not lead to any speculation. Now we are waiting for accounts to confirm. Freeh report wont confirm the statutory financial statements
Longish
I know but which part exactly are you referring to?
KOH
KOH
On NMC.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/NMC/14432003.html
Restructuring the debt may or may have not have implications. All speculations. The guy employed professionals to get him out of that trap and Freeh to provide some credibility. That's exactly what he should be doing. It's all takes time and unfortunately uncertainty kills atm. IMO
Where did you read "RNS confirming there is an unknown problem with the directors/ related parties and 'officers' accountability under the companies act"?
KOH
KOH
'Nothing really changed since yesterday'.
A couple of things have changed imo. Restructuring of the holding company proposed that may have implications for how it charges costs and leverages its debt into Fin (private equity model vs Fin statutory profitability) and this morning RNS confirming there is an unknown problem with the directors/ related parties and 'officers' accountability under the companies act.
Pokerchips
I wouldn't call "two entire floors of the Burj Khalifa" splurging, it's not necessarily a bad investment and could be worth much more today than at the time of the purchase....
Me too, but the real "over-leveraging game" is only for the really rich I'm afraid but yes, if one gets it right it can make you very rich in the relatively short period of time :)
KOH
Thats me out with a rather large loss as this will be driven down further IMO. Taken my profits from NMC but still down too much. Played with fire and got fingers burnt. Hope it recovers if still holding.
KOH
You are right and all this uncertainty , creates questioning like I was just doing..
" Shetty splurged on a private jet, vintage cars and two entire floors of the Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest skyscraper"
blimey, maybe we should look at this over-leveraging game , and see how far we can get with it !!
Plus we don't even know if there will be any takeover at all. The guy is having a hard time, no wonder he employed Houlihan "to explore strategic options for his holding company, including a potential debt restructuring or the sale of some assets". He needs professionals. The above doesn't really say much, a "takeover" is nothing but a wild speculation atm.
KOH
Pokerchips
Hmm let's see. Too many speculations atm and the markets take advantage of uncertainty. I personally still think that those drops at both FIN and NMC are well overdone. Operationally both companies are performing well and deliver solid financial results. Perfect storm & cascade of events is what dragging it down. Extended uncertainty periods are often much worse than the news itself. As long as books are not cooked (and according to Ernst Young Auditors NMC's accounts give a true and fair view) both businesses should be fine. Over-leveraged Shetty got caught and paid the price. FIN was hit by cyber attack & coronavirus on top of that shareholding nonsense. All in the short period of time and all temporary. Silence & bad sentiment kills any recovery. Need some news to turn the tide. IMO.
KOH
A takeover ..well it depends what the offer price is for current shareholders to absorb
With Muddy Waters "suggesting" that Shetty "may" have over-paid for assets , then it would obviously depend on due dilligence on the accounts and balance sheet as to what a potential bidder would value it at
It "could" be that part of the drop may reflect that possible scenario that the purchase price of Travelex was over stretched
, as a cross over from their NMC remarks
I am only guessing, not suggesting one way or the other