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You can simply sell
70p? Where did that number come from...
In July 2018 the SP hit 75p and it then progressively fell to 22p by Jun 19. Since then it has meandered through the 20's, spiked at 42p (Nov 20) and stagnated in the mid 30's. The company stopped the dividend and is growing a deficit. I don't see 70p anytime soon but happy to be persuaded otherwise...
Since December 2019 the whole show has gone pear shaped with a complete trashing of the original BoD.
JL,
I struggle to understand your brevity. Are you suggesting the next trading statement will be negative and put pressure on the share price that facilitates a low ball bid? The mood music has been positive since December 2019. They won’t get anything through less than 70p so there is still material value here.
Cheers Jl. TBH I am on the cusp of bailing out and taking the loss on the chin. I originally bought for the dividend and opportunity for growth in the long term on the understanding FCRM was an infrastructure company like National Grid. I hung on after the divi was chopped believing it was a blip. Having come this far I will look to the 1 Apr update and see what is on the cards.
GL Pip.
Hope u get the news early April.
Me the sceptic - u will get what they want u to know, sadly.
The end of year trading update is due on 1 Apr. In 2019 it was used to declare a smart meter contract and in 2020 came the news of the domestic asset sale - followed in short order by a hostile bid whilst the SP was in its boots.
Recent BoD buys suggest the 2021 update will be bringing good news, perhaps a post Covid recovery and further movement into charging stations. However Harwood and Bayford may also be keen to make their move after a frustrating year when the SP has been in comparatively cheap territory. Positive news in 3 weeks time and a rising SP might just force their hand into action.
This uncertainty of what is to come has been manufactured by the company's complete information void. Looking back all we have had are directorate changes/buys and EV infrastructure developments.
I assumed any bid would now be recommended.
Ah... just posted now. Bayford up to 15.46%. I have also looked at the AIM Rules and I think the point for making a mandatory offer is 30%. I can't find anything about the consequences of breaching a Relationship Agreement.
This from the 05 Jun RNS:
"Neither Harwood nor Bayford will be permitted to make a general offer for the Company's shares unless the offer is recommended by the independent directors and neither must take any action which would trigger an obligation to make a mandatory offer"
and
"Harwood's Relationship Agreement will apply only for as long as it is interested in shares in the Company carrying not less than 10 per cent of the Company's total voting rights, applying the definition of interests in securities in the Code. Bayford's Relationship Agreement will also apply for as long as it is interested in shares in the Company carrying not less than 10 per cent of the Company's total voting rights, again applying the definition of interests in securities in the Code, although this threshold will increase to 20 per cent should the Harwood Relationship Agreement cease to apply"
So at the moment Harwood and Bayford are effectively cancelling each other out. Both have seats on the board and both are tied into a relationship agreement preventing an open bid without the agreement of the independent directors.
What I do not understand are the legal consequences of breaking the agreement which has been adopted into the Articles of Association. Bayford is continuing to accumulate shares - buying on the open market and via Turner (and his wife) who recently transferred their own FCRM shares into Bayford. On 20 Dec 20 Bayford held 14.4% of FCRM equity, but that figure is significantly out of date now and must be 15+%.
At what point would a mandatory offer need to be made and what happens if such an action breaks the Agreement as stated above?
Managed to buy a few today for long term hold
Fill or kill order only .
Yes.
Director buys as predicted.
harry
I shouldnt comment since i sold. Though I had held since 2014
One of my many AIM failures - Snack - a super incentive scheme was offered - c 6 mths b4 the coy folded - but it was miles better than a few grand.
Is the RNS an incentive??? or just a mist over what is going on
Ji.
Seems your theory was likely correct. The big volume selloff suggests bad news but Turner os loading up so my guess on bad news a new lowball offer will be made.
Hard to believe a company like FCRM in a niche market are not making gains. Management churn and Bayford sitting on your shoulder gives rise to apathy.
Interesting to see what the next RNS says.
HC
Not
Im out but saw the huge sells on 6 Mar. Something untoward is happening!
The 2 x 100k trades were buys. Look at the timing, price moved up after both. Expect more director buys announced next week.
Should have finished that message before pressing the 'post' button.
Trades on the sell side ain't significant but there are no buyers so the price continues to slide. At this rate low 30's are in sight.
Starting to lose that positive feeling on this stock. No real reason just a hunch. Likely another bad hunch.
All theory but anyone any knowledge on the next trading update.
HC
Gotta say this SP ain't going anywhere soon unless we get some positive news from FCRM. Ok market generally is in the toilet but this share price is seriously under the cosh. Looking at trades its hard to see any reason just sseller
New non exec - Guttridge can now retire - free skating on the pond now.
PIP
The auditors allowed non compliance with 2 IFRSs until it became mandatory.
Harrison was CFO - his fault.
Griffiths was blamed - she left.
Harrison thought an increased income stream was a good idea - BUT he had no surplus cash - so had to borrow.
No smokescreen - just incompetence.
No Camarco no PR
An order book has purported value until it is delivered or cancelled.
I am similarly holding to see how this develops. I have gone back and read through all the reports for the last 4 years to try and understand where this went off the rails. The critical period was when the EOY report was delayed 5 months under the smokescreen of changed accounting rules. Prior to that the business was steaming along quite nicely.
The key takeaway for me was the steady stream of contracts; the adoption of electricity connection networks to provide an income and the sale of the gas connections to similarly provide a steady income. My conclusion was that there is a steady flow of money coming in, despite the recent £2.5m loss. It's an odd trading year so let's see what comes in the final report.
If there is a serious deficit it is in the lack of news flow. The company is hardly standing up and advertising itself as a 'go to' business in what I presume is a competitive environment. I find this disconcerting because it feeds the conspiracy theories.
Ji
Sorry to see u go and thanks for the explan' on your reason for selling. You may have chosen well given SP weakness.
My view remains FCRM are pretty cash flow rich going forward but historic issues and bad management remain an. My guess is before long these predator shareholders will try again to take FCRM private. Whether we see a premium to the present SP is the big question. We need hopefully to be back at 42/43 before any new offers are 'tabled'. I still remain optomistic that some VC will 'swoop' and put a decent team in to get some value out of FCRM for shareholders.
All theory and wishful thinking.
Anyway Ji good luck with your other investments. Do you still hold Saga and Just. Or did u ever.
HC
Took profits first thing this morning will watch with interest with a view to re-entry on the update, good luck to all still invested.
Interesting views and much appreciated, it seems we are at an inflection point regarding our future, which I agree with, now I have the weekend to ponder over the possible outcomes.
H & P
Harry
My reasons are posted earlier in response to Rax comment.
4 CEOs in 8 years - yes I invested from 2012 - Spellman couldn't make it work - left 2013 - then Donnachie - til he retired he got things going - but he had previous - Harrison took over - was CFO - hired Griffiths as CFO. Blackrock had a good stake from the beginning c 2010. Blackrock found out that Harrison was buying pipelines with borrowed money - quite a lot of it. The auditors were not happy with the accounting - ? irfs 25 - Griffiths went - Blackrock dumped their holding - Turner picked most or all. Harrison went.
Harris appointed CFO - never bought a share.
SP at the 2012 level - when I started - mills an opportunist with mates bought a load - tried to stage a coup - failed bcos of Cayman law.
Harris as Ceo. Holder link to Mills and Harwood. Turner and Mills link - get BOD seats.
Who wants what and how it will get sorted - who knows - but a H1 loss of £2.5 m may well lead to a full year loss of £5m
SP will plummet and Turner will pick up all available - y? bcos I dont see Mills buying more.
From a company with a progressive dividend policy - and a promise of a special from the pipeline sale per uncle Phil - to nothing - and the front page of the FCRM web is just net zero carbon.
Ji and Pip
Have I missed something. SP again in retreat and Ji are you out?? Reason.
Hard to see much downside unless there is bad news. The infighting will continue until someone makes a full and decent offer. Ok. Go private but shareholders have to agree and the last time these arses tried it they.got an expensive 'kicking'.
Having major shareholders in play ain't a bad thing kinda puts the brakes on predators.
All theory.
HC