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How will this play out for easyjet? I think we will have two more bad quarters before a way forward through the constantly evolving virus threat is settled upon by the countries of Europe. At this point, I think it is just possible, depending on what happens of course, that easyjet MIGHT become a worthwhile investment somewhere around April 2022, after its third rights issue, when the shareprice will have been diluted to somewhere around £2.
...ad cold.
barbershop; lol. Your granny is very amusing.
jtan; your advice on what govt should do is of no use. I sympathise with your sentiment - if people won't help themselves even after massive efforts by health services, scientists, big pharma and govt, then there is no helping them. They can exercise their personal choice to perhaps die. Unfortunately opening up and feeding these recalcitrant types to the virus doesn't solve problems for everyone else.
If, for example, barbershop's stubborn granny were to fall ill with omicron and become mortally ill, the NHS will not leave her to die on her sofa. Instead, they will take her to a hospital, put her in a bed, which will then be unavailable to people who are more deserving of care. Meanwhile, Mrs McPhee will have passed her highly transmissible virus to a dozen people in the hospital, her friends, family, shopkeepers, one or two of the ambulance crew etc. The capacity of the NHS takes a double hit due to staff being quarantined with covid AND beds filled with people exercising their right to be ill. Meanwhile the new variant runs rampant. What then? The hospitals fill up.
Inevitably we will have lockdowns even if they're called something else. We HAVE to have a functioning NHS; it's a major pillar of our society. If it collapses under the weight of thousands of sick grannies, old people, diabetics, asthmatics, convalescent cancer patients and all the other people most vulnerable to covid, there will be enormous social anger which will then spill over into more mass protests, crime, fear, cats living with dogs, and a total absence of soft toilet paper.
Also, it isn't all about the UK. It isn't even all about omicron. Delta is ravaging Europe right now. Take a look at the Johns Hopkins data for Hungary and Poland. The numbers are horrific. These are small country populations with a covid death rate six times higher than ours per hundred-thousand people. Everywhere, the fourth wave is building. Only France and Italy seem to be keeping the numbers down; I am suspicious of their reporting though.
There is some hope. A lot of people are hoping that omicron will be milder than delta. At the moment it's too early to say, though I suspect that a hundred grannies with omicron in Glasgow are likely to fare less well than a hundred young black people in Jo'burg. We shall see in a few weeks.
A vaccine will be no use. SA is reporting an R number of 6. Even if we in Europe were to halve that to 3 through social distancing, masks, etc, the new variant will likely rip through the entire population in two months - lockdown type measures might extend that to several months, but even then, vaccines will arrive after the omicron has bolted.
However, their are a clutch of anti-viral drugs (protease inhibitors) and Pfizer has recently agreed to a royalty-free license for generic drugmakers to ramp up production and testing. These anti-virals MIGHT reduce covid to something no more inconvenient than a b
The government propaganda didn't say so, the billionth booster suggestion came from you....
Had a chat with 'Granny' McPhee, and she says if it's a choice between having a billion boosters or EZJ going outta business, then she doesn't give a tuppenny toss if all the airlines go bust.
She also wanted me to let you know she vote to leave, and asked you all to suck on it....
Not the way I thought the conversation would go, but there you are.
No one has died from Omicron despite it being detected in 38 countries, WHO reveals.
Sounds like the beginning of the end for covid.
PantherPat, are you looking at all the airlines to get a view of the space as a whole? They all quite understandably took huge losses through the last year or so, it’s done.
What I’m interested in is how the Companies have reacted to the new landscape and future proofed themselves to a degree. Easy have consolidated bases, renegotiated Pilot contracts, have liquidity to the tune 4.4bn and have decent forward bookings to date (up on S19). Looking forward, what’s not to like?
lumpingalong, you really are a true believer, aren't you? Look past the waffle and study the numbers. That £1.1bn loss continued into the last six months, when easyjet lost £400m of it. That 'liquidity' as easyjet likes to call it, is loaned money that has to be paid back. And that loaned cash is being quickly drained from easyjet more quickly again, now that the covid recovery is going backwards. Also, those bookings for the summer will quickly evaporate if covid is still a big issue by the summer. Easyjet gave back £200m to customers in the last six months.
In about eight weeks we will get a trading update from easy. It will contain much of that same kind of grand waffle that amounts to 'we moved some of our aircraft around and are charging customers for things that used to be free.' However, there may also be a clue in there as to how much money the business is still losing. And that is the crux of the matter. This is a business which is measuring its success by the amount of money it loses. I hope it won't always be that way. The big question is; WHEN that will be, and how big will the debts be when we get there?
Results for the year ending 30 September 2021
easyJet's financial position, optimised network, margin enhancing ancillaries and cost restructure is fast tracking its recovery, providing a strong base to accelerate growth and deliver strong shareholder returns.
- Headline loss before tax of £1,136 million, ahead of consensus. £4.4bn of liquidity held providing renewed strength to capture opportunities.
- Transformed business
o Radical reallocation of our aircraft to higher contributing bases.
o Step change in ancillary products delivering now and into the future - first in industry to implement dynamic pricing.
o Cost base restructured - line by line cost savings delivered with further cost savings underway.
- Summer '22 - Current FY'22 H2 revenue booked is ahead of FY'19 level. Operational fleet plan increased by 25 aircraft as we capture growth opportunities.
Your faith in those analysts is both touching and mystifying, because they have almost all been completely wrong since May of this year, and though they have been downgrading their targets, still easy goes lower. JP Morgan at least recently got the price range right, but only had easy as 'neutral'. Perhaps you should wake up and realise that analysts are only there to make business for their brokers. They are seldom right in the short or medium term, and often not even in the long-term. If you'd followed the recommendations of the analysts in your list since I started saying 'sell' you'd be 20-30% down. Better to use common sense and buy nearer the bottom, if you really want to be in easyjet.
Regarding Covid, in your opinion might be over, but I think you should take a look at the news, listen to some of the scientists and understand that much of Europe is in lockdown, cases and deaths are rising dramatically, and omicron is re-infecting the cured and the vaccinated - enabling them to spread covid to the vulnerable and the unvaccinated. It is resurgent, not over.
And as far as easyjet's share of the revenue is concerned, I really think you should read the results. At 58% of 2019 flights in Q4, easy still lost money, and it was predicting 60% for this Q1, but that target has flown out of the window and boarded its own whizz flight to Oblivion (it's in Eastern Europe apparently). All of these silly statements that you and a few others make about 'pent-up demand' and 'teeming with flights' isn't borne out by the reported losses, nor the reality of travel in Europe at the moment.
And finally, I don't mind that you don't read my posts. I consider you pretty much a lost cause anyway - my main purpose is to stop you from misleading all the other posters on here (something you seem determined to do). Those people do read my posts, because my posts use facts and reasoned argument (mostly) instead of ridiculous statements. It's there for everyone to see! GLA and DYOR.
@avocet123, great posts, thanks for taking the time to post some facts. The future looks good here.
£7 plus seems to be analysts concensus. Anyone who thinks omicron is not priced in by now must be deluded. Covid in my opinion is a relic of the past. We have learned to live with it. Plenty of ezj flight landing and departing from Luton today. Just check the Luton Airport website. Its there for everyone to see. Lots of wizz and Ryanair flights also.
The sky's are teeming with flights and easyjet is a large proportion of this earning revenue.
01-Dec-21 Deutsche Buy - 720.00 Reiteration
01-Dec-21 Barclays Equal-weight 705.00 705.00 Reiteration
30-Nov-21 Peel Hunt Limited Buy - 720.00 Reiteration
30-Nov-21 Liberum Capital Buy - 680.00 Reiteration
26-Nov-21 Berenberg Bank Buy - 800.00 Reiteration
28-Oct-21 Liberum Capital Buy 900.00 680.00 Reiteration
28-Oct-21 Deutsche Buy 750.00 720.00 Reiteration
28-Oct-21 Berenberg Bank Buy - 800.00 Reiteration
25-Oct-21 JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 595.00 535.00 Reiteration
18-Oct-21 Berenberg Bank Buy 720.00 800.00 Upgrade
13-Oct-21 Deutsche Buy - 750.00 Reiteration
13-Oct-21 Barclays Equal-weight 685.00 705.00 Reiteration
14-Sep-21 JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 880.00 741.00 Reiteration
10-Sep-21 Berenberg Bank Hold 930.00 720.00 Reiteration
05-Aug-21 Peel Hunt Limited Buy - 900.00 Reiteration
02-Aug-21 Barclays Equal-weight 940.00 940.00 Reiteration
21-Jul-21 Liberum Capital Buy 1,000.00 900.00 Upgrade
21-Jul-21 Berenberg Bank Hold 1,000.00 930.00 Reiteration
21-May-21 Barclays Equal-weight 940.00 940.00 Reiteration
20-May-21 Berenberg Bank Hold 960.00 1,000.00 Reiteration
19-May-21 Credit Suisse Outperform - 1,200.00 Reiteration
16-Apr-21 Berenberg Bank Hold 960.00 960.00 Reiteration
15-Apr-21 Deutsche Buy - 1,150.00 Reiteration
14-Apr-21 Liberum Capital Hold - 1,000.00 Reiteration
13-Apr-21 Liberum Capital Hold - 1,000.00 Downgrade
29-Mar-21 Berenberg Bank Hold 850.00 960.00 Reiteration
24-Feb-21 Credit Suisse Outperform - 1,032.00 Reiteration
20-Jan-21 JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 875.00 825.00 Reiteration
20-Jan-21 Credit Suisse Outperform 840.00 934.00 Reiteration
20-Jan-21 Citigroup Sell - - Reiteration
20-Jan-21 Barclays Equal-weight 630.00 850.00 Reiteration
23-Nov-20 Citigroup Neutral 750.00 750.00 Reiteration
19-Nov-20 Liberum Capital Buy 500.00 1,300.00 Upgrade
19-Nov-20 Davy Neutral - 800.00 Downgrade
26-Oct-20 JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 530.00 600.00 Reiteration
12-Aug-20 Davy Outperform - - Upgrade
21-Jul-20 Berenberg Bank Buy 850.00 800.00 Upgrade
13-Jul-20 JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 1,620.00 760.00 Reiteration
29-Jun-20 Barclays Equal-weight 650.00 650.00 Reiteration
19-May-20 Citigroup Neutral - - Reiteration
11-May-20 Credit Suisse Outperform 945.00 746.00 Reiteration
23-Apr-20 Morgan Stanley Equal-weight 1,800.00 800.00 Downgrade
12-Feb-20 Credit Suisse Outperform - 1,616.00 Reiteration
11-Feb-20 Citigroup Buy 1,650.00 1,700.00 Reiteration
23-Jan-20 Canaccord Genuity Hold 1,360.00 1,570.00 Reiteration
17-Jan-20 Berenberg Bank Hold 1,410.00 1,410.00 Reiteration
14-Jan-20 Morgan Stanley Overweight 1,000.00 1,800.00 Upgrade
17-Dec-19 UBS Sell 1,100.00 1,240.00 Downgrade
29-Nov-19 Credit Suisse Outperform - 1,546.00 Reiteration
25-Nov-19 Berenberg Bank Hold 1,260.00 1,410.00 Downgrade
Yawn, I couldn't even be bothered to read your whole diatribe panther. But the bottom line is that you think the market is so inefficient, it hasn't even priced in the current state of affairs. And you also think you know better than the analysts at deutsche bank, JPMorgan, and many others. Give me a break. Spare yourself the lengthy posts. Most don't read a quarter of them.
What utter rubbish! 'Priced in'!! The only thing priced in here is misplaced optimism and a misreading of the share chart - rebase the pricing to show the additional shares for the two rights issues, and then easy doesn't look so cheap.
The enthusiasts here have lost touch with reality; easyjet is a mundane transport business, ferrying people back and forth in Europe at budget level prices, trying to compete with Ryanair and Whizz and a bunch of other no-frills carriers. The market is mature, finite, over-populated, and currently burdened with huge costs and risks. What exactly would you get in 10 years of owning these shares? Huge growth? No!! Massive dividends? No!! Not with a billion in debt which is growing daily and will take years to pay down.
The 'pent-up demand' which people here keep blathering about will be over in one season, and that season won't be arriving this summer, that is for sure, now that omicron is here. The money which people might've spent on holidays is being spent right now on home improvements, vehicles, second homes in the UK and whatever else people want to entertain themselves with. How many holidays can the type of people who use easyjet take in a year anyway? Most of them have jobs. A lot of them have families to support. And who would want to drag their children into a quarantine hotel either before or after a flight when they catch omicron?
If easyjet was a manufacturer of new tech, or a drug company changing human health or some other business able to create markets and grow exponentially, then I would understand the enthusiasm. But what I see on here all day is a bunch of dogmatic deluded people trying to draw naive investors into this worry-truck of pointless, non-earning, risk-laden rubbish.
I am sure easy will be worth a punt if and when it becomes very cheap and the situation for a return to normality appears on the horizon, but neither of those conditions exist right now. imv the route to profitability will be long and the climb very slow, possibly starting in 2023. People rushing in now, for fear of missing out, will get bored with the rate of progress and slowly exit over the next six months. The Q1 report next month will be very depressing for investors - easy's lack of a trading update speaks volumes.
The business made a loss of £700m in H1 and another loss in H2 of £400m. Any progress is being reversed right now by more lockdowns and travel restrictions. Q1 won't even break-even; easy is probably running at a loss comparable to the last six months and will maybe be down another £250m to £300m by the end of this quarter on 31st Dec, and maybe even more. This shareprice is going to go a lot lower before it goes higher. GLA and DYOR.
2021 loss is priced in, and I suspect so are any losses in q1 22. Remember, market cap is loosely based on 10 year earnings. 10 years!! The last 2 years and 2022 are merely a blip in this timeframe. Markets are forward looking, not backwards. The past is the past. Look at the bright future. Perfectly set up to tak advantage of pent up demand and beyond.
Hi FTSE … I understand your outlook on share chat, I would never make a investment decision based on a chat board, just find it fun to read … but what do they know ? … anyway I do see the point of the financials for easyJet and that looks bad… it will cause strain on the employees and people get set in there ways, so may not travel as much …. it will take a long time to recover the losses! … just my view Gl with your choices
Bluetrumnpet - on 27th Nov, you suggested SP would be in Mid 350's by now. And you wonder why investors/traders don't take you seriously. All your 20 posts on LSE have all been made on EZJ board. If you are so negative on EZJ, why do you spend the effort posting on only EZJ? Just curious about characters like you. I appreciate everyone has an opinion, but have always wondered why negative posters only ever appear to post on one board.