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Inches? Yards? Nah, i think it will be feet - somewhere in between :-)
The difference in views is whether a decent (but not tranformational) update will re-rate the SP or not?
I Do agree Simms, its knife edge stuff! Could go one or the other, but at the risk of repeating myself I just have this nagging feeling that the update will just be similar to everything else she has said, namely, inches not yards, unsure of future trading pattens, good progress, plenty of money to see through the next 12-18 months etc etc (which is all true. of course) but I am just unsure that this is the "breakthrough" update. Just like the last one, maybe a spike and then settles back down into the trading range. Anyway, not long now, GLA
In my experience of investing in exactly these type of bombed out companies news had to come stamped on headed notepaper. Past investors are jaded and even though last rns said “good may” that is circumstantial. Also bigger interest is the inflection point and i think we will be at that point. we will find out but looking at risk/reward profile market is betting bust and im betting with £7.5m cash it has plenty of runway and every market signal had turned green for Eve. However Emma is doing really well so Eve needs to keep pace and ensure a strong market position.
Last financial update covered the period before people knew which way the cat would jump with the whole lockdown thing, and also I think there was a degree of sexism at the appointment of Cheryl C, not of the open shocking type I first saw on the Kier noticeboard which went more or less unchallenged, as CEO Which led to a couple of people saying ‘if James Sturrock has gone I’m selling out.’
But of course Wyndrum you could be right in your concerns too; time will tell.
Hi Simms, I think that is quite right, so why, after an update of only 6 weeks ago confirming what you say has the sp not moved? Or did the update 6 weeks not confirm that?
when a company is effectively valued to go bust, as Eve is, any news i would say to the opposite will have a positive impact. Market cap today is a ridiculously low £3.5m, about same as nice semi in central London, but we have £7.5m cash so we have a negative market cap. if the market senses the chances of a profit and sustain that over the future Eve will get a proper re-rate. Most signals i see are pointing to a good update and future.
Eve has an awful lot of baggage from the previous regime so the naysayers have, until recently, had the unenviable and catastrophic fall in sp to back them up: "they're doomed" etc. Recently SP's been on the (modest) rise. Due to substantially better management and recent external events we could be on the cusp of a re-rate; certainly I'd be surprised if the trading statement is a damp squib. We know people bought more mattresses for lockdown – so that people in households could sleep separately, and the shops were closed. What's far less certain is how the market will react to the statement. Good news isn't always appreciated at all. If people expect a fall after an announcement it's a self fulfilling prophecy. Maybe even an optimist should sell and buy back later on the dip, or not buy back at all. What chance a sustained rise after the statement? It hasn't happened before but there hasn't been a better chance (that I can remember) than now and I say that as a realist rather than a wishful thinker.
Absolutely right Bish, nothing to do with what I or you want, its what the market will make of it and that's interesting in itself because, when we says things like "the market...blah blah.." we are referring to, maybe unconsciously but, an independent, unemotional blob, machine-like really.
It is far easier than people realise to become strongly emotionally attached because they like the product and what it represents (the power of the brand and all that), and would see themselves as disloyal to criticise a company they like and have shares in. And if the results are actually poor, I am confident some will make "excuses" for that and talk themselves into holding for longer or even topping up, even though the reason they bought the shares no longer exist.
That emotional dependence is strengthened through time, so the longer you hold the more reluctant you become to sell and you tend only to sell when the SP has fallen so there is an emotional pain of loss to contend with as well, all conspiring to ignore the rational self and give into the pleasure of the emotional self. Then if the SP falls further the pain is intensified because the financial loss is greater and you beat yourself up on the fact you "knew" you should have sold earlier when the SP was higher.
Its a game for sure.....
Cheryl Calverley hasn't been CEO for Calverly very long but we've seen much more of her than of John Sturrock in more than a year. Not sure what you can necessarily take from that but I see it as a positive.
Wyndrum strikes me as level headed. Not a rainbow chaser. I'm a bit more bullish, admittedly, but that's born of my conviction EVE's brand and specialism in eCommerce.
Personally, I prefer sprung mattresses too, but I think that's a non-issue. I also prefer 35mm film, old music, physical books ... The market doesn't care.
I was in prior to the last update and got out as the spike started to fall back on the day of the release of the update and made a modest profit. And then subsequently had a feeling that something more exciting was afoot and got back in again expecting this update to be better still (and it may well be, I have no inside knowledge), but the lack of movment in the SP dampened my enthusiasm and the more of my own research and conversations I have had with various others made me think there are better places for my money in terms of risk reward, so currently I am out.
I just think as I have outlined, I have gone full circle in my expectations from it, may actually take off, to more of the same holding pattern.
Good afternoon wyndrum could i ask what your position is holder wise here at moment?
Because Ow, EVE are not the only supplier of foam Mattresses. Any mattress can be bought on line. so if you don't like foam its not like you can't have pocket sprung. Look at Mattrssnextday.com
Also I spoke to someone in the hotel industry (not about EVE specifically) but they don't use foam mattresses because they are difficult to clean and dry when soiled by customers.
As I say this is nothing to do about the product per se, but all about EVE and its ability to carve out a profitable niche before it goes bust, which is exactly what CC said in her interview. Its very much about hanging in there. Hence I am not expecting (although I know I could be completely wrong), any great shift. I think it will be a steady as she goes statement. I also think spend will be up so the burn of funds may have increased a bit again she eluded to that in bringing forward advertising spend.
Mattresses-in-abox are here now. They are not going away. The only question seems to me to be whether Eve will be a force that will endure. Evolution means that a slight advantage here and there make the difference between success or extinction in one or all territories. Does Eve have the genetics for survival? I think it does but we shall see..
Wyndrum
You are very downbeat - you glass is half empty . You seem to tune in on what might go wrong as to what might go right. Perhaps that is a great quality for an investor
I however, I am more optimistic. What resonated with me was, bring marketing spend forward (this will not have been possibl without strong performance given they will be under pressure to hit Q2 Contribution target and conserve cash), most of our competitors are shut , sales sounded good - talked positively about single matresses and we already know from a previous RNS that sales of premium products has gone well.
Whether the update is a damp squib will come down to what we are each expecting - I'm confidenf of a good update, where it may disappoint me is if the management are too pessimistic about the remainder of the period (as Halfords have been)
I never said it wasn't but you've lost me slightly - The point is that is people stop going to physical shops they will cease to exist, and then where do they buy their mattresses? If a large part of the industry moves online specifically to businesses like EVE I fail to see how they don't have a viable business model, as they will effectively gain sales from nowhere with existing marketing spend the same?
This is entirely accurate, in my view. Shops are finished. It's one of the reasons I invested in EVE. The business is lean and entirely tuned to this new environment, and the brand is strong. Retail parks,in particular, are in trouble. And that's where many of EVE's competitors for market share reside.
Convenience trumps everything. And now even the 'hold outs' have become conditioned to buying online. Shopping in old analogue way will continue to be an unpleasant experience, so I expect EVE will continue to hoover up customers from competitors. I don't see new ones emerging either.
well, yeah, but we knew that. look, EVE is not about the size of the market of Mattresses or the move to online shopping, its about whether it has a viable business model or not. Its that fundemental
Different industry but interesting none the less.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53402767