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Mini trades moving price up.. can anyone explain these patterns? Who are making these small trades... strange.
Some interesting companies in the mix. Just on Eve I have noticed that the blocksize in the market has dropped in size to 20k of shares which is the smallest i have ever seen. There were secondary sellers of Woodford stock very recently selling in very decent amounts but look to have dropped off as far as i can see. that does not mean to say they are not lurking at higher prices though but most bought above 3p. The walk down from 10p to 1.3p left a lot of buyers entering the market just as the knife fell. If you look at level 2 today there is quite a gap potentially as you can see 2.5p not very far away that has not been shown before. Anyway price is firming and up 10% in a day and level 2 is giving signals the step change might happen soon and we still many days from update.
1.5 20,000 JBER 07:30
1.5 20,000 PEEL 08:00
1.5 25,000 SCAP 13:21
1.5 20,000 SING 13:07
1.5 25,000 WINS 10:29
2.5 20,000 FCAP 07:56
Hi Simms, there is nothing to suggest that EVE would/should be valued comfortably at £10m. All it has ever done is lose money and at one stage looked to be going bust any day. The good news is that losses are now relatively small with more than adequate funds to allow time for a proper recovery to take place. And in that scenario the last 6-12 months have been very successful. So, thus far at the sake of sales revenue, a much tighter financial regime has been installed. Can this be tipped over into profitability? Maybe, possibly, but due to the virus, and that's just bad luck, future sales predictions are impossible to make and the market does not like uncertainty so I am not expecting any fireworks. But hey, CC could come out all guns blazing and if she does then great, but it won't be on the back of what has so recently been communicated from EVE to the markets. But that's what makes this such a fun game!
I think the Woodford element for the artificially low SP is not justified. If demand was there for the stock then they would have been snapped up in and around these prices weeks and weeks ago.
Don't take these as tips but I have quite a holding in XSG which I have been adding to over the months as this is one stock that has great potential but I can't time when (or if) the big move will come, although I think this year will see good progress.
I got into BOO only yesterday because money talks and the current news will be forgotten sooner rather than later and they will be on the acquisitions trail with their cash pile so growth is likely to remain strong, so it looks a good entry point.
AVCT again seem to have huge potential and that is my current biggest holding and I think I will know by September if that is going to fulfil expectations. And I still like Halfords and although they disappointed the market last week with their results, my continual topping up has brought breakeven down to 8% away so I am quite relaxed as I think they will get to 177p in the not too distant future. And the one stock that I am probably emotionally attached too is Fevertree because I have made so much on it over the years in and out that I never like to be too far away form it.
Which gets me back to EVE, when/if I do buy back in it will be through a genuine expectation of success rather than a hope and I will subsequently put in a much larger buy than I currently have done up to now.
You mention so many shares out there for quicker gains so be interested in your picks of interest. I would not classify any Eve RNS likely to be transformational as we know the business and it is a brand known by almost every adult in the UK after Eve spent 10s of millions on marketing in the past. The brand is strong and suggest it is second to Emma in the box variety and there was historically a lot of press interest in the company. The same might apply if Eve can murmur confirmed numbers to say that. This will likely precipitate wider news coverage and that is very powerful both for the brand as well as the share price. Add in the covid link and you have potentially good news coverage of the turnaround. I just look at the type of news necessary to move this company to a market capitalisation of £7m is not very hard. That is double the share price today and that would still be a fraction of the market cap of Emma. The main difference in 6 days is we actually get numbers while trading updates gives us eluding language. Eve should be comfortably, if Woodford had not dumped his stake, somewhere north of £10m so it is a waiting gain but 1-2x is very nice thank-you potentially over the next 6-12 months. i do not think the share will go lower than 1.3p as that has been the floor for sometime.
Hi Simms, not agonising exactly but certainly trying to figure it out. I am quite risk adverse. its not that I won't take a punt but I need (like we all do) a logical reasoned rationale as to why to buy now.
I have mentioned before but time is the critical element. I can't afford to waste a year, say, of a share going nowhere. (it can happen of course), but there are so many opportunities out there for quicker gains. Some stocks are potentially worth the wait, but this is not one of them in my view. Some stocks are just waiting for an RNS to come out at any undisclosed time that would transform them. EVE is not one of them.
I would have a markedly different view if this update was 6 months away from the last one because a lot can happen in that time so good news would have a bigger effect on the SP, but its just 6 weeks since the last one and can't see for the life of me why this is the update to set the price shooting up or leading to any dramatic re-rate of the company.
Sounds like you are agonising over whether to make an investment or not over the next 6-12 months and i hope you make that decision and the entry price you are looking for. Maybe after the results next week it might be that time.
my feeling on the 50/50 is that I think the Sp has an even chance of rising or falling on the update. The market in any event (I think) will defer judgement for at least another 6 months
You said 50/50 earlier. That's better than most restaurants. Fingers crossed here then, based on basket of indicators.
RNS: TBH, I didn't.. There've been others today (TILS) and been preoccupied! Will take a look.
the mattress market is huge and bitty hence the potential for new players to come in and radically change the way its been done in the past. This, at this stage is irrelevant to EVE. Its the same as a new restaurant Chain opening, huge market, everybody eats out, but it does not mean it will be viable does it?
(On another matter did you see XSG RNS this morning?)
Wyndrum, you're right of course, I we don't know their margins. They do encourage trustpilot reviews now, and reply to reviewers, but I would be extremely surprised / shocked if Eve encourage fake positive reviews (maybe holders of rival mattress comps plant fake negative reviews?).
I don't have shares in Tesla cars but I did bookmark them at $400 because I thought 'electric cars are the future; I may buy Tesla when there's a dip' despite not knowing the profit margin on a car, the level of warranty claims, the life of the batteries etc.
Now Tesla shares are .. $1500? Are they profitable? Do I wish I'd bought? :-)
I have the same feeling that mattresses are a big market as we all use them and mattresses-in-a-box from online sellers are here to stay. I assume these companies (Casper, Emma, Simba) wouldn't even get set up if there wasn't a profit to be made if the sales are being made.
Only a few days to go to the next instalment of the mystery..
Hi DG, I just don't think it is sinister or remotely clouded as you make out. I know I am banging on a bit (quite a lot probably) but there was a lot of info in the last statement only 6 weeks ago. In interviews since, CC has re-iterated where EVE is at present (losing money remember albeit not much), so trading close to breakeven, unable to forecast future sales, concerned that the market will soften.
(I don't know if this will be a shock to anyone, but companies routinely employ 3rd parties to "review " their products on Trust pilot and the like), so I am personally wary off a sustained uptick in reviews because its more likely in my view, that these are manufactured to increase.... sales….
Heres a thing I would like to know. What is the profit margin on mattresses? They are losing a £100k per month, how many extra need to be sold to cover that or what % of sales would need to increase to get there?
Where is the breakdown in sales on ancillaries (pillows. toppers etc to actual Mattresses.) What is the returns rate?
These are the nuts and bolts that we all need to know and understand to take a view on what EVE's viability is, and I for one don't know any of that.
Hi W, Your line 'Just because Emma is selling loads more stock does not mean EVE are growing at the same rate. Just because online shopping is booming does not mean EVE are benefitting' made me think of the Judge when I sat on a jury a few years ago...
When summing-up what 'sure' meant the Judge told us that one couldn't be SURE that if, when knocking on a door and a face popped out of a window upstairs and shouted 'I'll be down in a second', and then the same face appeared to open the door, that they were necessarily the same person (there could be twins involved) but that it was reasonable – SURE enough for innocence or guilt to be proved – to make the assumption that the person was one and the same.
In the same way, we are told that Emma is doing well +120%. Trustpilot tells us that Eve is getting more reviews on sales. Online sales are going well generally as the shops have been closed. People say there's been a hastened and likely permanent shift 'online'. We were told May was 'good', and CC's earlier 'disruption' really could just have meant disruption in the factory, in the office, some people self-isolating etc. rather than anything unduly sinister.
We'll get more info in a week and not much I can do myself other than hold or perhaps de-risk a little around a spike..
And if anyone on this board happened to hear the same story from a judge when they were sitting in the dock, I'm sure he tells it to every jury!
SIghs...Wyndrum
EVE SP is priced to go bust - so if you don't think it will, then you should expect the SP to be higher
I think there is more than enough proof points to suggest the market that EVE participate is UP. No doubt in my mind
I also am 90% confident that EVE will have benefited signifcantly from the increase in market. Even at a fraction of the sales uplift that EMMA reported would be a great thing for EVE
DYOR - it's a game of opinions. Roll-on next Tuesday :-)
Hi DG, I just think it is a 50/50 deal right now. The SP could go up maybe 50%, or drop to under 1p
All the more positive messages continually posted here are either unsubstantiated from known facts or are making assumptions that are not related.
Just because Emma is selling loads more stock does not mean EVE are growing at the same rate. Just because online shopping is booming does not mean EVE are benefitting.
In a recent previous post I said
"with improving trading in April continuing into May, after the disruption of the initial lock-down period from the middle of March." How bad was the disruption March? So trading improved in April and May, but from what to where?"
To take a further interpretation on that, So, disruption in march with improving trade in April. How about the initial disruption carried on well into April( does not say it ended in march did it?) Maybe the very last week of April saw a pick up and therefore allowed the "improved trade in April" to be true?
All statements from directors will spin the positive,they will never be downbeat/realistic, of course they will, but as I have demonstrated with my take, which is reasonable (although it might be wrong), shows how ambiguous the statements have been thus far.
I don't think EVE are going bust or anything like that but I am expecting (as was prefaced by CC), that forward sales are likely to be under pressure and are impossible to forecast. The upbeat bit will focus on cash at hand and tight control to weather the future uncertainty. Eve's time may come, but I don't see this update being the one for now, maybe 6-12 months I'll take a stake (or sooner who knows!)
Nice response W - appreciate the time taken to explain your position and your views are valuable on this board. Agree - it's not healthy for any investor to think this is a risk-free, no brainer ten-bagger with bells on. Perhaps you are trying to talk yourself out of investing here - the time you spend here shows you are tempted :-)
But... you do scome across as super pessimistic about EVE. Yes, you are open to the possibility you are wrong, but you seem to hold such a strong opinion that it will not go well.
To be fair to Wyndrum, he has a very similar approach to shares he writes about :-)
W; I am still slightly surprised you sold eve so recently when the slight (so far) strengthening of the sp was anticipated. Having said that there are plenty of places that have done well in the last few days and maybe your £s have done very well in another place.
I work form home and have 'another job'. Is it just me who sometimes buys or sells because 'thinking about what to do next' is just taking up too much time and once a decision has been made you can move on and get other things done? I shouldn't admit it but sometimes I think 'what will be will be' as agonising and researching doesn't yield better decisions, or something completely unexpected (cover for eg) comes out of the blue.
Eve could take a good while longer for a complete re-rate (assuming it happens) but to ask 'what has changed in the last 6 weeks?' is easier to ponder. The last update didn't refer to the period that could be the most promising phase (from Eve's point of view) of the journey. So we have moved on from the 'market went... umm…' to knowing that lockdown has been good for the bed-in-a-box and sleep industry, of which Eve is an unarguably a pretty major force.
Certainly a fair point that the future is not clear to any business as furlough comes to an end but there are so many positives for Eve that have happened in last 6 months from breakeven in Q4 and strong since this point, falling burn rate, positive marketing contribution for last 8 months (brilliant), competitors exiting market, Emma reported 120% increase in sales, Woodford 31% firesale of shares out ..... and did i mention Eve is valued at a total market cap of £3.5m with £7.5m of cash in the bank so worth negative £3.5m. While no one really knows the future of employment you can work with what is known, add in market data and competitor analysis as some excellent posters are doing, and know deep down that even if Eve doubles to 2.5p we have a market cap of 0 once cash is removed and company has been at least at breakeven since Q4.i am happy to be negative on companies as i look at hundreds in detail and could write essays on why i would not invest. Eve is in my 1% drawer of going to come good and by that i consider doubling my investment as good and that gets us to 0 market capitalisation.
As I have often stated I have been in and out of EVE over the last few years and it must be obvious to all that I am looking for reasons to buy in again.
I try to be objective, neither pessimistic not optimistic.
Its is instructive that people will take the same information but come to different conclusions. It displays (and I include myself), that we tend to hear what we want to hear, and thats ok to a point but what we are doing here is risking hard earned money. So I try to offer a genuine alternative to what many here seem to believe that this is a no-brainer, completely oversold, 10 bagger, just about to happen.
Even though just 6 weeks ago the market went... umm… not so much....So I (I think) reasonably ask what could have possibly happened in 6 weeks to transform the company?
As to helping others, well I suppose yes, guilty, I am because I am passing on my experience in the hope that it will help people make money. Otherwise what is the point of anyone posting here? (or on any board). The danger of these boards is that they just become echo chambers so an alternative view, if it only helps your thought process to confirm that your initial purchase was correct cannot do any harm.
As for ulterior motives, there is no earthly way any poster on any of these boards moves the dial a micron of the SP of the stock they are discussing. So not guilty in principal and certainly not in effect!
And finally imo , never allow whether a person is invested or not to colour your thoughts on their opinion. Not only is it irrelevant but you don't actually know. (I have told you I am not invested but maybe I lied and I do hold the stock.... does that suddenly make my views more acceptable or allowable?)
Anyway it makes for a more interesting board with different views doesn't it?
Yet a another downbeat post from W who is not invested here. Why do you feel the need to constantly pour cold water on the optimism around the SP and trading update.
Do you get a kick out of being some kind of fairy godmother - thinking you are helping people avoid losing money here?
Maybe you are just attention seeking, believe you are so right here and want to be proved right?
Or you an an ulterior motive
I'm not trying to creation friction - but I am starting to get bored of the constant downplaying when you have admitted to not being invested here
I think what CC will say, (because she has already said it) is that it will be difficult to predict sales over the next 12-18 months. That there could and is likely to be a drag on sales due to the upcoming recession and high unemployment. (That struck me from the interview that was posted here- She seemed genuinely downbeat from what she sees coming down the track. )She says she will not change the way the company is marketed at this stage as the brand is not powerful enough. So more of the same and really its got to be hasn't it? its only been 6 weeks since the last update?
I think she flagged cash burn up due to bringing forward planned advertising spend (which could be cover for not enough sales) and that coupled with the down beat forward outlook means nothing much will change. I think this is still 12 months away if ever, from real progress.
However what that means for the SP is anyone's guess!
This is probably a more salient article on mattress sales for key competitor Emma and a good sense of the market :
https://www.rli.uk.com/revenue-jumps-by-120-per-cent-for-emma-the-sleep-company/
The other small point is Woodford starting selling down his 31% stake in Eve from June 2019 onwards and only completed the full firesale when it sold its last 11.6% stake on 8 April 2020 so very recent and there will be a share overhang as some of that firesale will have been bought by a intermediary whose job is to trickle sell stock and hence the flatline in share price since. the share price fell from around 6.5p to about 1.3p in that period and progress was being made to turnaround company, a key question to ask if Woodford had not sold his stake what would share price be today? I would hazard a guess it would have flatlined at 6p until confirmation of turnaround news. Therefore this is a technical factor and see no reason that if confirmed turnaround and positive forward note this should not wander back to 4-6p once overhang is cleared from secondary sellers who took up some of that stock. Today we are at a totally unhinged market valuation for the business and i am sure Simba and Eve and relooking at that merger/takeover as they are both individually weaker than Emma. Emma is the leader today but Eve Sleep have ambitions and are chipping away.
https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2020/02/emma-mattress-annual-sales-skyrockets-86/
Not long to see how things go and sense more buying activity in the leadup.
In simplest terms start with Q4 at breakeven and work forward with the words like “improving” and “strong” and you know worst case scaenario is “break even” but i suggest based on Emma large sales growth we will do likewise.
CEO only just joined and wants to own the turnaround herself and not be seen as her pedecessor. I think everyone should agreed that £3.5m market cap for Eve with £7.5m in the kitty and Q4 was breakeven Is a good place to start as an investor. Throw in “strong demand” for premium high margin mattresses and you are lining up nicely
all that is true Simms but what do words like "strong" mean? phrases like "overall revenues are in-line with the Board's expectations" mean what exactly? what were expectations? , "...with improving trading in April continuing into May, after the disruption of the initial lock-down period from the middle of March." How bad was the disruption March? So trading improved in April and May, but from what to where?
This opaque message was not released by accident. PLC's have to report immediately any material difference in profit forecasts from their last update.
Had there been a material improvement, actual figures would have been produced, the last update was very much a holding exercise, I see nothing thus far to suggest that the next will be different. But you do, and that's fine because it takes at least 2 to make a market. Good luck
this was key paragraph from 29th May is as follows so we can only take that last 2 weeks of March were disrupted, and that could mean operationally but fair to say maybe sales were affected but April and May have improved and most importantly high value mattresses and high margin pillows etc have increased, not the low end of the market that is very low margin. So factoring in Q4 breakeven and do some filling in the gaps to see where things might be. not saying we are booming as clearly we have strong competition but even if we show 50% of the growth Emma has seen we will be doing very well, especially as alluded we are selling well in the "premium" mattresses, coded word for higher margin.
"overall revenues are in-line with the Board's expectations, with improving trading in April continuing into May, after the disruption of the initial lock-down period from the middle of March. Sales of eve's award winning premium mattress range and bedframes continue to exhibit strong demand, and the Company has experienced an increase in sales of its pillows, bedding, toppers and single mattresses as households adapt to life in lockdown. Most importantly, with the focus on moving to profit and cash generation, the Company has achieved a positive marketing contribution for the Period. eve has now delivered a positive marketing contribution for the eight month period commencing September 2019.