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It will be a big manufacturer that will end up buying the bed in a box firms. A tie up between bed in a box firms wont work. Margins will be improved but not by anywhere near enough.
EVE could consider a mobile container style truck with the rear decked out as a bedroom for touring as a mobile trial mattress vehicle and pitch up at various towns during market day or such like for the public to try????
Aim, you seem happy to talk about your plan so I'm intrigued as it doesn't quite add up to me atm.
If there is consolidation you've previously said the new bigger company will also be loss making if it's someone in the same sector (see below). So you'd take a punt at 3p and expect a mini sp rise and then sell? Just seems like you're spending your time on lots of 'ifs' and 'maybes' when – unlike most people here – you don't believe in any long term future for bed-in-box plus sleep extras. I can't see you staying in a loss making bigger company but maybe you will?
Surely there are better bets for your money if that's what you really believe? It means – and I'm guessing – it's a quick profit you're aiming for, buy at cash and then out soon after, which is fine if everything falls into place for you. Who wouldn't take a quick profit. Personally I'm hoping to make more money by staying but I'm not the most successful or experienced investor on LSE!
24 Mar 2021 20:39 Aimtrader – 'I think it depends who was acquiring them. A straight merge with the likes of Simba (or equivalent) wouldn't deliver huge savings. OK there would be one office, a slightly reduced headcount but the per unit cost (of the mattress) and marketing CPA's would be broadly similar. The new enlarged group would likely still be loss making in a post lockdown World.'
Fair enough, but what makes you think consolidation more likely when consolidation didn't take place at less than 1p?
Taking a punt at 3p would indicate that Eve is doing better than it was just over a year ago, so moving in the right direction.
In fact, consolidation didn't take place at (from memory) around 6p when it was seriously considered..
I don't think people exclude consolidation (CC said they'd consider, if an offer was great / fabulous; can't remember her exact words) but my expectation is that eve will continue to expand its range and do well enough now that there's been an extra lease of life. On-line is the way forward; eve should be fine with or without a suitor.
* aim for someone not in eve or looking to get into eve you sure talk a lot of crap about it, what's the end goal ?
Aim for someone who isn't in eve or looking to get into so sure talk about of ?? about it
D-Geeman - I think you'll find I said I might take a 'punt' if the price drops back to cash levels. Reason for this - I think we'll see consolidation within the 'bed in a box' space. Sorry - 'sleep wellness' space ;) Genuinely that is the only way out for Eve.
Aim, you really must have talked yourself out of buying by now?! You said that you'd buy around the value of the cash but that's not sensible; if you believe eve are doomed then the cash would run out and your shares would be worthless, even if you only pay 3p - 2p - 1p for them.
Since the SP rose a tad (so far) today, your wait for 3p seems less likely rather than more likely to be achieved. The moving average for TP reviews over 12 months seems to be rising, and they were nearly at break-even by December. If France goes well you may regret not buying at 5p. Just my take anyway.
Hey guys, hope you are having a good Friday. : )
Online retailers actually benefit greatly from the high street being open and people getting back to the shops is a good thing for online sales. This is especially relevant for Try and Buy' products - Like a Mattresses : )
For EVE, this means the continuation and extension of their bricks and mortar concession strategy with Next Home, Boots and Argos. Getting into bed (excuse the pun) with a premium brand like John Lewis for example - would be a massive boost.
Home consumer products are a great example of where consumers go to bricks and mortar brands to try and then go online to buy.
Yes - of the two you'd sooner be invested in Eve. Casper are focusing on growth at all cost and that will end badly. Eve will likely end up in the same place but it will likely take a bit longer. I just can't see how they move to profitably from here especially with the High St reopening. Cheryl C and Tim P had a slide on the 'path to profitably' plan in the recent presentation but it was far from convincing.
Without wanting to put words in people's mouths I think we'll probably agree that we'd rather be invested in Eve than in U.S Casper. Casper might well look at eve for a few tips. (Hopefully the won't look at acquiring CC!).
Half way through April and 160 TP reviews, and running-total for the last 12 months is 4% up now, from when I noticed it'd just passed 3000 reviews for the year for the first time. Early days to be drawing conclusions from that figure but I'm glad it's up rather than down.
Thanks Cris, I meant Casper Sleep. its just that you compared CS to EVE on a SP valuation so I thought you might have had some other financial comparisons as well to back it up. (I think you will find that the market over there is not actually a millions times larger than the UK or even a hundred.....)
Hey Aim, interesting... thanks for the info.
Thanks D, I'll check some of your suggestions out.
So, I guess we have a few more weeks till we hear from EVE (possibly)... but looking forward to more news.
Casper are loss making - approx $90m last year. Haven't looked in detail but from memory I think they held cash of c.$60-70m of cash (poor investors). The market cap is 20-25x Eve at around £300m. Pre IPO it was valued in excess of £1b but has tanked every since. Similar model to Eve but also with physical stores. Revenue is approx $500m per annum so a very different size to Eve. In my view, Casper will be the first high profile casualty from the bed in a box startups. Like Eve they're predicting profitability at some point soon but no real obvious path to how this will be achieved.
Hey wyndrum,
Do you mean Cellular Goods on the google search or Casper Sleep?
Casper Sleep is here: https://casper.com/home-v2/ I haven't looked at their financials, just checked out there offering quickly when i spotted them on Wall Street. I think they are likely to have substantially more revenue as the US and Canadian market is a million times larger than the UK and Europe put together, so i suspect they are $100 Million plus...
If you mean Cellular Goods - you can find these guys here: https://www.cellulargoods.co/
Chris, Wyndrum has some v. good ideas but everything seems to be waiting on news. I have AVCT, SNG and Tils, all with news of different types due imminently (any minute) or fairly imminently.
I've followed one tip into HE1 Helium One Global Ltd NPV which has done well since I bought quite recently, but that's a gamble on whether they 'strike' the gas where they are drilling. My wife is in the gas industry and they value helium highly.
MRL Marlowe plc Ordinary Shares is one I found and seems to be rising. They divisions to do with fire safety which I feel will continue to be a growth sector.
You might like to take a look at https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=0DTT&share=Bank-Valetta-Or
which is nothing to do with the bank! It's an empty space where people discuss their ideas (lots of mining, crypto and pharma ideas) without argument. There are some pretty knowledgable people there.
Chris, I can't see it easily when I google, so can you help me out?
How much profit did Caper Sleep make last year and how much cash in the bank have they got?
Cheers
Don't take that as solid financial advise by the way lol ;)
Actually D, i forgot to ask if you have any investment recommendations you are excited about or in right now?
I recently just got into CBX (Cellular Goods) - Some people are looking at them as a bit of a Meme stock as they in the CBD market place with skin care, sports recovery and other medical cosmetic products - but when you go beyond that and begin looking at the board structure - their process and plans, they have a very strong offering and thats without any products in the market yet. Current SP 8p (They plan to launch their first product range in September this year).
To add to this - the consumer CBD market is a largely unchartered landscape in the UK right now and if they get it right, they have the opportunity to own this space.
Wow - it's a shame that EVE had to go through so much learning and disruption before they got to this stage - to get it right.
What i find interesting and i understand the difference in the market dynamics and the buyer volumes but the only other business close to EVE on any exchange appears to be US based Casper Sleep and they have an SP of approximately $7.
Founded in the same year as EVE - in 2014, very close in offerings and products - would put their pound SP around £5. If EVE can keep going forward from here - keep extending into European markets maybe even pickup an acquisition along the way, they could break out of the penny bracket short term. (next few years)
They could also do none of the above lol - but I have a good feeling about these guys so I'm looking to hang around for a bit at least. : )
I had to check Cris!
14/09/2018 Bought 18.50
31/08/2018 Bought 16.64
Buying at 16 and 18p; those were the days!
Fortunately I am now in the blue after averaging down, but it's been a close thing. I tend not to average down now, on other shares. Most of the signs look good to me (and I have more experience than I did in 2018) so I continue to hope for Eve's prosperity.
Also - Interesting to see if we see a climb similar to Jul 20 onwards if the results are exceptional, instead of just a spike and then nothing again. Let's see.
Hey D, thanks for the info.
Will be good to see if all the speculation around Q1 has legs. Also, will be good to see what the engine looks like going into Q2 and the rest of the FY.
Have you been on EVE long yourself?
Morning to you Chris,
https://investor.evesleep.co.uk/notification
is a good place to see what happened in previous years.
Last year we had:
14/05/2020 Eve Sleep plc: Posting of 2019 Annual Report, Notice of AGM, Update on AGM arrangements and Notice of Trading Update
29/05/2020 Eve Sleep plc: Trading Update,
29/05/2020 Eve Sleep plc: Result of AGM
23/06/2020 Eve Sleep plc: Notice of trading update
22/07/2020 Eve Sleep plc: Trading Update
The pattern is rarely identical but should give us an idea of when things might happen. The SP usually rises into any kind of update (so anyone waiting for 3p / 4p doesn't have a great deal of time ;-)