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I posted the below on 16th March and stand by my valuation...also still convinced it will happen.....Just a question of time.:-$
...my guess is we will sell for about $220m which will give us approximately 0.013 pence minus tax....so I guess about half a pence per share.... which imo will be great. DYOR.GLA. :-$
Armani funding fears have dogged us ever since that awful 2nd raise with DB last year. Valuing is quite difficult now because there are so many unknowns. First we need to know that deleterious elements are not problematic. Rubiales had low levels of Cadmium so that's the one that gives me sleepless nights, hopefully low for us as well and no smelter penalties. With deleterious elements ticked off we need to know what the new recovery levels are on the zinc and finally at long last what the copper means to this project. Basically forget the NPV from 2018 it's now a joke. Even the JORC is in a sense history because of the amazing cores from TD025. We just have to hope that any sale is indeed frictionless as promised and this good work is recognised in the valuation, though I think we have to accept that if we can't deliver a PFS then the project will be significantly discounted particularly in the current climate.
As Trade said earlier, that's just the Silver.
As someone mentioned earlier in the week, I think it was Shed, that early April is behind us, Mets on Tuesday Wednesday, otherwise that becomes the middle of the month not early part of the month, enjoy the Easter weekend look forward to METS on Tuesday GLA.
Just did the same calcs. Came up with a value of the Silver in the ground of £155,978,000.00 ( Nearly 156 million Pounds ) working on 14 million ounces ( 396893 Kg ) at £393 per Kg
Shed, Its a direct quote from his reply. Obvoiusly open to interpretation.
It would make a lot of sense to do a deal on the Silver or Copper for that matter but there will not be a requirement for a placement to raise capital in the near future.
It's just that technically there are four precious metals of which we only have one. If he'd said 'precious metals' he might have been using the term loosely but I don't think so (was that a direct quote?). We have also heard about 'various things giving us non-dilutive optionality', so that's why I've always wondered if the copper is more significant than we know as yet.
Shed, that is a fair assumption, but I cant say for sure.
Lead, Zinc, Silver and Copper are all valuable, but the Silver may be the easiest to forward sell. I will defer to those contributors that are more knowledgable on the subject.
Interesting Cjen we have one precious metal in Silver (which is clawing its way back from the drop), sounds like he sees that as the key to mitigating against dilution.
Garwood, LR replied to me on the 31st of March to confirm that there will not be a raise in the near future and that his view of Toral is that "We are an established project that can produce precious metal quickly". Therefore I continue to buy. The strange thing is that all my buys are showing up on NEX as red sells as I appear to be buying below the midway point.
I agree with your observation generally Bobby but I do have a strong conviction that LR is also driven by the potential career prestige that a high profile success would bring him here, he wants a Toral result on his cv. If this was to whither and die then his professional currency also drops, yes he will still have been well paid for the privilege of losing us money (though I know he doesn't think he is well paid). I'm certain that to prove and dispose of a world-class asset is what really drives him, not to mention his warrants. So specifically, I can't agree with your comment 'there is absolutely no advantage to them if shareholders make a profit or loss'.
Great thought guys, we all would’ve loved to seeing something before Easter, LR did say there was something forthcoming financially, we’ve all seen it before, placing on the way? GLA.
Brickz I'm just narked (haven't used that for a while!) that we haven't heard yet. Obviously I don't know what the hecks going on in reality. Maybe they'll surprise us and announce some cuts that amount to a genuine sacrifice. It might be a cut in cash terms but topped up in shares which obviously means we end up shouldering the burden. I would favour a cut to a comfortable living wage with reparations made up in the success case of securing partner funding or complete sale, not optimistic though.
WHO knows sheds ... Maybe they even going to pay some suppliers in script ? Anything possible nowadays. We have to preserve cash imo. GLA
Would have been nice for shareholders to have had some reassurance about the budgetary measures before Easter. My suspicion is they'll be getting out the fine pencil on all cash outgoings, squeezing the pips out of suppliers, before looking at the impact on salaries. If they'd done it the other way round we'd have heard something by now. Not too impressed.
Trade - the Spanish lockdown shouldn't affect the mets as the cores were already with WA in Cornwall. Despite WA initially not being affected by the CV problem here, it later transpired that there would be a delay in getting the data out and that's when they estimated 'early April'. Even so, I wouldn't be surprised to see another delay as there always is, it just wouldn't be because of Spain being in lockdown or not, IMO.
No that would definitely be mid-April Storey, perhaps MC has forgotten about Easter like he did with Christmas :) On delays did anyone else not understand this (from 27th March) "A delay has unfortunately occurred in completing the last metallurgical laboratory test and consequently also in transferring the data to Wardell Armstrong International in the UK". Wouldn't the data be transferred from WA to EUZ, we deliver them the sample and they deliver the data to us. Also why would there be a delay in transferring data? Is it delivered physically on a secure hard drive or similar, I had assumed it would be accessed through some sort of secure shared database. Wish I'd asked at the time as it has been bugging me since.
Promised early April... so tomorrow then? Or we’re on to the 14th after the bank holiday which is certainly not early.