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I've been in this share a long time (only recently found this BB, have posted on advfn under a different nickname, upthepool).
I've had a go at the AIG calculation previously, over there, but that was before the REM were flying and before the possibility of a raise of resources to 40Moz was known about.
Really struggling to get to a sales figure now. For reference, I got to 78p for the 15Moz + a bit for WK and the tailings project - but as I said above who knows what the Rh, Iridium etc is worth to a bidder, and WK has improved since then.
GLA, its been fun since my 0.56p average, and I think there is more fun to come yet
Whats up Ndn did you sell out again ?
Your 10 and 20 % margins will see you get locked out .
Hope it happens really quickly to **** you right off
I don’t understand why the ramptasteroniads get so upset when someone suggests a conservative measure.
Myself, I think WK alone is mid 40’s.
MF etc is the juice on top.
Value it how you like, take speculative *PRE*feasibility 2+2 data and make zillions. Doesn’t bother me. But to counter it is reasonable.
Fact is, if deal(s) get signed, everybody who holds will show a profit, no matter when they bought. IMO
Deneway, you are spot on. Each oz is not worth the same. This is one thing some fail to grasp.
Anyway my view is aim low and anything else would be a nice surprise. With the pie in the sky figures of some there will likely be some disappointed punters when the deal is announced.
deneway, good afternoon, I am in broad agreement with you but you have to add onto the end the special dividend that UBS and DS will be squeezing from the bidders. Last unconsolidated play, first mover advantage, rising PGM's. This, imo, will be what takes the sale price to where we want it to be. It won't be in the normal range of company takeovers it will be much more as this isn't a normal company sale. GL
Abstract statements don't make them true. I've said numerous my guess is as good as the next as there is no way enough information in the public domain.
Tell me the split if measured, inferred and indicated resources for one.
This is what I think may happen to get us to a final price.
A % AIG will be used for the 2Moz proven.
A lower % AIG will be used for the assets that takes us to the 15Moz.
A lower % again AIG will be used for the historical assets identified outside of the above two.
What the % used above is the million dollar question, hence the widely fluctuating opinions on here.
If you're struggling, like many of us here believe you are, you can also have a little look at page 17 in this link, a nice simple way of explaining to certain people the value curve as certain feasibility studies are done on assets -
You see, i've provided you with everything you need, you just haven't read any of it lol
Well NB ND ...Blackrock closed short open Long
Increased holdings .....
Shorts will be toast imo.
Please enlighten everyone as to how resources are proved up Billions, what it takes to go from known PFS to a DFS stage. The PFS was done without Eurasia's drilling data, bare that in mind.
Or are you now wanting to ignore 80km+ of drilling data and the PFS's because it doesn't suit your standpoint?. The cracks are well and truly showing now.
Your Moniker should have been Minions .
You bring sweet FA here..
And nobody with the interest In EUA is bothered with what you say...
And what does the DFS... please enlighten everyone?
Correct me if I'm wrong, MT has a JORC resource of 2.2moz. The rest is targeted no way this is included in the DFS based on historical data alone.
Billions - I know. I agree.
There has been nowhere near enough drilling for a DFS - if there had - guess what? We’d have a DFS
Ok billions we'll go there just for you -
From the company presentation:
"• Adjacent to Loipishnune deposit
• Within prior exploration license and drill tested through Anglo
From RNS -
"Since the final approval of the Flanks licence (see RNS of 25 August 2020) the Company has been putting together the database of information from previous drilling campaigns in the Flanks area, that is considerable. 48,405m drilling (announced via RNS of 18 August 2020) is related only to one part of the Flanks License (NKT) and comes on the top of 33,100m drilled by Eurasia's Joint Venture with Anglo American Platinum. The Russian feasibility study on the NKT palladium dominant mine (within the boundaries of the Flanks License) gives 15% IRR at the palladium price of $659 per 1 oz, while the current palladium price stays above $2,000 per 1 oz due to long term structural deficit in the palladium market."
"Extensive prior drilling campaigns with c.48,000m drilled at NKT, a part of the Flanks application."
"Our predecessors also developed targets in the NKT area, and areas to the east of the Loipishnune deposit, and these work programmes in 2015-2017 resulted in pre-feasibility studies lodged with the State Cadastre of Mines in Russia."
Anything today or is that it?
I'm well aware. Just making the point unless it's in a DFS or already being mined at that level then it doesn't mean much unfortunately. It is a plan at this stage only and requires development and proving up.
The 15-22 moz aren’t confirmed, just estimated.
The deal(s) depend on how buyers value those estimates.
It starts with the fully financed Sinosteel contract Billions, have you done any research?. You seem very green behind the ears when it comes to Eurasia tbh. The contract includes a specified processing amount, but, it hasn't been started due to the current FSP. The plan that i have put into this thread is the most recent one given for Monchetundra, the one dropped into RNS last year. The 15Moz, 22Moz total including the legal exclusivity area is for Monchetundra, the asset they were planning to take into production next.
Fair point. For understanding will we mine 1moz this year? If not then when will this happen and what will it take to get there?
"Eventhough underground development will cost significant amounts" - that doesn't happen until the initial open pit mining is done. We currently have a 20 year open pit plan at a full capacity rate of 1Moz a year.
The AISC is far lower, one reason is because it's Russia, things cost far less in USD to get things done over there. Part of the beauty of it being in a country with a weaker currency.
We don't assume anything, we go off what is given in RNS and what is provided in company presentations. The next flank app takes us to 22Moz -
As metal prices increase more grade levels become economically feasible to extract as well.
The Canadian eg is approx 21p eua equivalent. I dont think it's a coincidence that the current sp is not far off this level
Let's believe the lower costs and no capital outlay. Eventhough underground development will cost significant amounts. Also let's assume the mad resource extrapolation that are being made.
5x the Canadian eg gives us £1. Bingo. You need your head tested if you believe the 3,5 10+ numbers.
Certainly RMR, our costs are far lower than that Canadian example, which in turn makes a vast difference to projected profits etc. It's still a very good starting point to look at things and make comparisons. The comparisons allow us to fully appreciate the great position Eurasia is currently in, those legal exclusivity rights to surrounding areas is a huge advantage for a first mover position as it allows a very straight forward expansion plan to be made in theory.
I believe our AISC is approx halve of what is suggested here too!
That makes a big difference also.
The other thing , the equipment is similar to what EUA have at WK, think they have more dumper trucks though.
Mining methods will employ conventional open pit, truck and shovel operating practice. Three pits will be mined over the 13-year mine life, with an additional two years of pre-production mining to be undertaken where waste material is being mined for construction and ore stockpiled ahead of processing plant commissioning. The mining equipment fleet is to be owner-operated and will include outsourcing of certain support activities such as explosives manufacturing and blasting. Production drilling and mining operations will take place on a 10 m bench height. The primary loading equipment will consist of two hydraulic face shovels (29 m3 bucket size) and one large front-end wheel loader (30 m3 bucket size). The loading fleet is matched with a fleet of 13 x 216 tonnes haulage trucks. A fleet of two 90 tonnes excavators will be used to excavate the limited volume of overburden material and will also be allocated to mining of the narrow-thickness ore zones associated with the W-Horizon in the South Pit to mitigate additional dilution.
That's the beauty of this, it's very close to MT for the initial 1.9mz/Oz given the fact it's also open pit.
When you then add in flanks extra 13.3 m/Oz and WK it shows the value we have.
These statements are very good and should give every one confidence
With the consensus outlook for palladium and copper strong for the next decade,” commented Executive Chairman Kerry Knoll, “this is a project whose time has come. With little new PGM mine capacity being scheduled to come on stream over the next few years
The scale up value and the fact they are putting large investment in which they will re-coup in 2.3 years should show how much value could be had by someone with deep pockets to scale up MT quickly, from then on its a lot of profit.
Hi SW, thank you for sharing this document. Really appreciated. As Mac said we are looking to produce 5X their capacity also, unless I’m reading that wrong? Is anyone able to work their magic and extrapolate the figures and convert to SP?