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ShareAnorak - great post
Very interesting comment re buyers not being able to sweep up shares in open market - I would have thought they'd be buying aggressively.
I posted 13 July around 14 hrs.
here's again......
https://acfequityresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Eurasia-Mining-Plc-MA-Valuation-FINAL-ACF-03022020.pdf
50p - over 60p - just MT alone
Why should we get only a small premium from where we are today? Why not a small premium from where we were last week?
Because that wouldn’t make any sense. Last weeks sp was far too low and the situation has already moved on.
Just like it soon won’t make sense to assume we’d get a small premium from today’s price. Today’s sp is still far too low and I believe the situation will continue to develop such that a 30-35p will no longer make any sense. Just my opinion.
60 per cent premium on 25p gets you to 40p. NN might be able to justify large premium due to wash plant nearby saves money. Also the 25million cadastre flanks of flanks is a massive carrot not really priced in. Could jv to drill those. If WK were now profitable that would also help.
Indeed Waiting. its just a waiting game.. ;)
I think the bidding partners (Firmly guided by UBS) will be looking at the strategic value of the resource rather than the share price.
No, wasn't that one, Just looking at the ACF one now.
Sorry Scot, Just read your post. ACF was it?
Who was it that did the report before suspension? Can't find it now.
It was paid for by EUA but it was reading that that made me look to invest. There was a price of 60-70p and it was titled something like "is EUA a £1.5b company"? For me that was their sign saying this is what we will take.
I cannot see UBS getting out of bed for 35p IMO that valuation is way off, EUA have already stated more than once to maximise value, have worked for 2 decades to achieve as much and also made it clear they are in no rush to extract the maximum.
Failing that I believe they would be looking to mine themselves hence double it and your in the ball park.
I still subscibe to ACF Equity Research valuation range of 54.8 to 60.6
35p the ceiling hahaha ??????????
Jones just stop with the silly moronic clown postings pretending to be a investor.
It’s embarrasing.
Stop with the ‘news due’.... calling people sir... putting kisses after messages sporadically, mindless moronic predictions of several thousand percent returns and vacant questions that point towards ramping.
You are a moron who has a record of getting every investment wrong.
Stop the clown show please.
So to see a £1 T/O we really need to see the sp at around the 45p level before any bid is made.
GFD - it’s always good to have respectful debate about the future for EUA. On the whole every credible investor is talking about much higher numbers than today, whether it be 35,46,78 etc we were on 7.2 a week ago!
I don’t subscribe to the multiple pound offers. But would very happily accept them, and the infamous algorithm based site is best ignored with £8-£9
I’m sure we will see an RNS at the appropriate time to outline further what lies ahead, the following weeks/months should be very positive for everyone from here on in.
I'm with interactive investor, held 100k in shares, but just in a trading account, Opened an ISA account bought 100k under the ISA wrapper & then sold 100k from my trading account...feeling much better now.....I also 'ticked the box' not to re-invest any 'special' dividends...so that's me happy...just sitting back & waiting for the BIG BANG
Interesting post. Mechanics of a deal process I can agree with. Couple of observations if I may :
When Norilsk bought LionOre in 2007 it ended up being a 57% premium to the share price the evening before XStrata made their opening offer.
This was a fairly simple bidding process with only 2 entrants but serves to show that when NN want an asset they ensure they get it.
When Sibanye bought Lonmin more recently it was at a 57% premium also.
Purchases of mature producing assets are more likely to be in the 20-40% premium, like Sibanye Stillwater deal in 2016.
I stand by my fair valuation of 46p under current production plans with range of 46-78p for a full company takeout.
Given I predicted 20p coming out of suspension everything seems to be going as expected. 35p is not the final destination here based on any valuation model of the assets imo.
https://www.powerof78.com/eua-gmf78-research-report/
I was under the impression that HMG taxes the divi prior to payment to shareholders - so that a PI with an ISA doesn't pay tax (because the total divi sum already has been).
I couldn't find a reference for it on HMG website other than "you do not pay tax in a isa", which could answer both points of view. Either way, I'll be richer than I am now!
Thanks Nitrokev..pretty much confirms my own thoughts..pompey
Agree techinaman.... have you seen this report made by GMF78....
https://t.me/EurasiaMiningC/50
Re tax on dividends
"Dividends received by pension funds or received on shares within an ISA will remain tax free and won’t impact your dividend allowance.
Also, any profit you make when selling investments in your Stocks and shares ISA is free of Capital Gains Tax."
Thanks, SA. Not sure about your ‘full value’ figure of 70p, though, given .....
MT: 15,000,000 ozs x $1,800 (low Pd price) x .8 / 1.30 = £16,615,384,615 which at the 15% in the ground price paid in other sales for comparable PGM resources (which did not have the same low CAPEX and OPEX of MT) gives an sp of approx 90p and that excludes the copper and Nickel deposits (£2b?), Semenovsky, and, of course, WK. If these are only worth, say, an additional 10p, we’re still looking at a £1 per share for the company as a whole which, even if discounted again by 50%, gives 50p.
I doubt the BoD would let the company go for less.
As you say, some timely RNSs are likely soon with the BoD having looked to see what the initial lifting of suspension might do to the sp, and getting tomorrow’s phase of the sale out of the way. Without news, the sp has done well and suggests the approach was the right one and the sp can now form a solid platform for further increases based on, for instance, the Flanks licence.
A question: from your experience, if sealed bids, does that mean a bidder couldn’t submit a subsequent bid if it wanted to trump the ‘winning’ bid ie gazump? All’s fair etc etc.
Would be a shame if folk put in a Sell order, influenced by your figure of 35p, assuming it’s the ceiling. I’m sure they won’t.
GLAH
TC
Cheers Sibloggs..thanks for response...I always thought funds , shares held in an isa were not subject to tax..so if I was to receive a dividend payment where in my accounts would it be allocated?
ShareAnorak,
Very interesting post thanks - I'm not convinced though the takeover price as a premium to the share price model is very applicable in this case, that is more relevant to a company in a more or less stable and static operating model, with known assets, liabilities and cash flows
I think an NPV model is more realistic for a company like EUA which of course makes it a much riskier investment for us, because in effect there are a lot of assumptions in any NPV calc
Could link together with the role Absolute Precision has recently do you think?