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Thanks Monty you make a fair point yourself! The only downside to your approach is that the market is unlikely if ever to fully recognise the monstrous reserves in your share price if everything is under wraps.
And in the context of selling said assets and proprietary rights, however, you'd instead be looking for/ needing a heck of a lot of goodwill. Literally (accounting joke)!
Never seen a company sale done quite the way EUA have set their stall out. Hopefully we'll see if it all works out for best soon...
We've had big sellers since resumption of trading in July, there are many PIs who have huge holdings and simply don't want to wait anymore.
It could be someone who thinks this may go on for a few more months and thinks the price may drop further.
If AC had sold his shares to the open market, I would have been slightly concerned yes, but the fact that it was a direct sale at 29p to Veles (whether it was for cash or whether he's doing some dodgy tax stuff) is enough for me to be satisfied.
@oldspurs - Good point, and normally I would agree with you, but not in this case. Surely even if (say) NN take EUA over fully, they will still want to retain the proprietary data. In fact, I would guess that this is explicitly part of what is being sold by EUA alongside the assets themselves. Given that so little, relatively speaking, is proven up, and this is the last non-consolidated palladium play, I can see a lot of benefit in them retaining as much opacity as possible vis-a-vis the wider world's knowledge of the specific outline of their assets. They'll literally be able to exercise price-setting power over global PGM markets. It strikes me that there's a lot of value in saying something vague and equivocal like "yes, we've spent X-billion on a large asset that currently has X-million oz of PGMs" while then spending the next 20 years applying for new licences, proving more up, and quietly adding to their truly monstrous reserves, all to be slowly drip-fed onto the market for decades.
Remember back to a few days before suspension? The buys that were going through as the price shot up from 3p to 7p.
It'll be the same again, key thing now is to watch the volume, I would have been suspicious of pending news if there was more volume these last 2 weeks, there has been a LOT of buying going on and I feel like without the big seller, we would have easily ran up into the 30s.
Lets see what happens, I do feel we will hear something inside the next 2 weeks.
757,154 is a big buy. If it's blackrock or a short closing, we'll soon find out. If its an II , we can only be notified when they go above 1% and they would have to have 27m+ shares. We're seeing a lot of large trade action which is a good sign. MMs holding the SP back while IIs load up below veles, mates rates. Share are going to sticky hands, those who will hold all the way which is also a good thing. Most traders are already out and hence the low volume. GLA
"It's not going to get leaky. UBS AND DLA PIPER will not have their reputations ruined for some impatient investors..."
Yeah it will. It always does. Even if just for a few minutes before the RNS lands. Just think of the number of potential leakage points: outside of the core team negotiating the deal, at every single step - Eurasia, buyer, bankers, legal, Russian authorities, takeover panel, NOMAD, insurers, London Stock Exchange, the list goes on - there are higher-ups and lower-downs who know things or will know things, even if they just overhear a conversation in a hallway or see a photocopy of a document that relates to a minor part of the transaction with a date on it, before the market does. Some of these people will actually be very distant from the transaction itself, but necessarily privy to information where they can make more educated guesses about what and when than you or me. You're talking hundreds of people, which exponentially becomes thousands once it hits the City rumour mill. The idea that every single one of those people can keep their mouths shut is fanciful, especially when they've spent 18 months themselves gossiping with mates who are invested in EUA about it and will be pestering them for a cheeky nod. That simple fact of human fallibility and inability to keep a secret is why I don't believe in conspiracy theories.
Monty what you say makes sense only in the context of JV or Farm in, where EUA would continue to exist following completion.
This is an FSP so the first and foremost intention is a sale of the company and its assets. What is has should be open to scrutiny and allow fair valuation. This would also allow the bidder to convince their own shareholders that a) its worth buying and b) worth buying for the multiple £ per share that we all want.
All interested buyers and bidders are confidential anyway - them's the rules.
IMHO nobody knows what is going going on behind the scenes except for the company... surely if no sale was going to happen you would of thought we would have got news of it by now but like selling anything its not done to till money changes hands snd contracts are signed etc..
It is taking longer than most would of thought and we keep saying maybe today maybe tomorrow maybe next week and now we enter March for me it has to be this month at some otherwise I will really question it. Hope we get the news we looking for soon as I think we lots of us going slightly mad here waiting lol .. GLA
I don’t think they have oodles of data. That is the problem. The flanks etc are a huge site and to pin down an accurate valuation would require a huge amount of drilling - much, much more than has been carried out.
So, IMO, the FSP is taking this long, reasonably, because they have to pin down the moving target of ongoing data, into some sort of satisfactory (to both parties) sliding scale Royalty/JV agreement. So the buyer doesn’t overpay if the resources aren’t there, and we don’t get short-changed if there’s a bonanza of metals