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aaaarrrrrrr! ye be on the wrong bb then londonshark.
No interest in what you think is needed Elenor. Didn’t invite your pointless input.
Some clearly finding this thread informative. You can skip or filter if you aren’t interested.
Thanks TDT. BMN a good buy currently IMO, plan to add but have taken a 50% hit on current holding. Have my eye on AMC but no significant funds until EUA provides or I decide to release some NCYT. I’m predicting general market drops for a month or two as results and profit warnings hit so hoping to pick up some bargains but we will see.
Jarrovian. Elenor. This is an interesting thread started by someone else in relation to palladium and I’ve been responding to questions/opinions. I’ll continue to do so and you can skip this one thread out of many on EUA if you aren’t interested in EV’s. There’s very little new information of value. What really spoils the EUA board is the childish references to galleons and pirates all over the place like its a school production of the Pirates of Penzance. Just irritating , not funny and polluting nearly every thread like the Heavy Oil Jarrovian has pointless referenced to stretch this dull analogy further.. I put up with that irritation silently until you gave me reason not to but please don’t lecture on what can be discussed, get dressed up as a pirates and put on a play or whatever ship based activity you prefer instead.
PROP5 - in BMN fairly recently but have take a big hit there.... hoping for good things.
Prop - aren't you? Look at the whole picture and think for yourself.
TDT - Are you invested in BMN?
TDT, don’t disagree that lithium can be recovered but doubt that will be the case with most Tesla batteries, once they degrade by 10-20% after 10 years or more most packs will be plugged into the grid for storage - minimal cost compared to recovering material and starting again. Even 50% of optimal capacity is very useful when weight and size aren’t an issue and priced accordingly.
Hi rattie, I addressed that point I thought. Prices will fall dramatically not rise - that goes for both batteries and EV’s in general. ICE cars have thousands of moving parts and there is little more efficiency or significant cost reductions to be gained, EV’s have only 20 moving parts and there’s lots of cost improvements to come from both scale and innovation which are both happening rapidly. Battery prices are falling and there are 15 years of proven lithium reserves based on 100 giga factories producing EV’s (20 times current rates) and another 35 years of likely viable reserves, also lithium can be replaced if necessary in both in batteries and for other uses so I don’t see It as a significant issue. We have many years of production reserves of lithium to engineer around the problem if necessary but every historical projection of commodities about to run out has proven to be false. I remember being taught as fact that we were going to run out of oil in 30 years (that was 35 years ago ). Also if you watch the video TDT linked to on the future of transport we will actually need far fewer cars in the future. Autonomy will mean it’s far easier and cheaper to pay a few pence per mile for an on demand EV rather than buy your own that sits unused for 96% of the time, same for India and other developing nations.. We’ve lived with cars and driving being essential for many but young children may never drive or think to own a car in their lifetime. That’s already the tread in teens/ young adults that live in cities and with autonomy will be the case everywhere. In fact we are likely to be banned from driving on public roads in 10-15 years as the accident rates compared to autonomous will be untenable. It’s already a magnitude safer for an EV to drive (where it’s able) than humans and that trend will grow exponentially. When it’s 100 times or more dangerous to drive yourself that let the EV do it people will either choose not to or be banned.
Great debate! However anyone plugging in to you guys informative and intelligent posts could only come to one conclusion. With the enormous increase of technical investment in the future of EVs who would be so stupid to now at this moment to buy what extremely shortly will be a redundant vehicle with a huge capital loss and possibly no customer willing to purchase it. Just a thought!!That's made my mind up. By the way no one has answered my question about the future rise in price, because of demand, of the constituents of battery manufacturing. Lithium at the moment is quite low, but will not be for long if your projections are correct. So,don't buy the car, buy lithium!
TDT i will be watching the Tony Seba presentation later.
When referring to electricity i should have been more specific, meaning that there is hardly enough present supply to accommodate what is needed now and the upgrading of cabling specifically to major charging points ( Service Stations / petrol station) for the required infrastructure the cost will be astronomical and who is going to foot the bill.
Dont forget when you plug 38.5 million vehicles (total number) in to charge something has to give and as i said previously forget about stored power.
Off for my daily walk now , have a nice day
Improvements in efficiency!!!
Renewable energy is commendable but totally insufficient. Stored of electricity presently isn't possible on a large scale and a number of years away. There are 32.5 million passenger cars in the uk NOT including transits HGV etc.
That's quite a lot of power to feed off peak even and as for queues at service station. Oh and I forgot we can't even manage to get highspeed fibre to all household ( presently 27%) and that's after 4 years.
EVs will come but maybe another 10-15 years away IMHO.
As for comparing the UK to Australia, please think again.
Improvements in the ICE / hybrid is the way forward until the technology has advanced enough to make the change.
Then we have another problem in the likes of India who are just starting out.
That is my view gents so I hope you appreciate it as I do yours. Have a nice day all
Cj62 - solar and battery storage, especially for peak demand. Battery storage has been a game changer in Australia, reduced costs massively and closed expensive peak coal and gas plants. So way cheaper and clean. Solar costs, efficiency and capacity are improving exponentially , tipping point reached. Also electric cars are mostly charged off peak at night and this can be managed cleverly to smooth peaks (including pushing energy back to the grid).
Good Morning TDT I am all ears ! Apologies but i haven't got a lot of other things to do today .
Guys I am all for EVs but can someone tell me where all the power is going to come from?
G-man - completely disagree that Tesla will increase its prices because it has such a big lead in batteries. Tesla stated mission is to advance EV’s and a sustainable future. They have consistently backed that up by consistently lowering vehicle prices and putting all their patents in the public domain so others can follow. Only Chinese firms have taken advantage of this. They will continue to lower prices as they scale and battery prices fall as they already have been doing consistently for years. Cost per mile is considerably less now than a few years ago and falls every year as Tesla lower base vehicle costs whilst increasing range both for new cars and existing owners with over the air updates. They will continue to lower prices as their costs fall and they move into cheaper area of the market.
NMS1966 - your argument over current percentages is irrelevant. Massive increases to EV market share is happening and will only increase, it’s been slowed by the availability of batteries and deliberate moves by oil and the motor industry but can’t be stopped now Tesla have reached critical mass. You can either make a fortune by investing or stand on the sideline complaining about irrelevant current percentages for which their are historic reasons that no longer apply. Your negative points don’t reflect any in depth research.
TDT - watched that video - really good and though much of it aligned with my current thinking there was lots of new and very compelling analysis. Have recommended to others. Thanks!
TDT
Stop manipulating the facts....your statement:
In France the proportion of BEV's to ICE is gone from a market share of 2.6% in 2019 to an expected 11%+ this year. Exponential growth will increase this figure in the coming years.
Simply is not true.....the 11% figure quoted in your own link states BEV.!s & PHEV’s will make up that %, PHEV’s have an engine mate.
GLA
Agreed Gman11.Especially as no one has mentioned, an electricity production crisis is looming from about 2027 to 2035 if you can believe the newspapers ie Financial Times and the Telegraph because of dithering by Blair ,Brown and Cameron. Just this week a major coal fired power station has closed closed which supplies 2 million homes here uuup north on the banks of the Mersey. Also as Gman11 stated the market for some considerable time will be for the upper echelons of society, so perhaps 25% by 2030.Jaguar are said in the motoring press to be going all electric by 2023,reinforcing this trend. Can we really London shark, expect battery prices to diminish when surely as we have seen with PD the constituents of the battery manufacturing will inevitably rise in price? Anyway LS enjoy your V8 as I did with my BMW 7 V8 until 2011 when it expired, so now loving my V6 JagS which has only needed one 300 quid repair in its 83,000 miles with a gorgeous suspension that gives a magic carpet ride, unlike some others which rattle your teeth!!
Londonshark,
Whilst I agree that Tesla will lead the way in the motoring industry, I dont agree with your view that others will be miles behind. If Tesla have better battery capability then they will ramp up the price of their cars. Most folk cant afford that.
I'm not sure if you're a motorsport fan but if you are, you'd do well to follow Formula one and Formula E. The technology coming from the manufacturers in that is astounding and directly filters down to their road cars.
Switching to electric cars will be gradual, not overnight. Tesla will have plenty competition.
Thanks TDT, haven”t seen that but will watch in the next 24 hours for sure. Have been reading a lot but also following many strong EV and Tesla contributors on YouTube. Fully agree that the tipping point will come very soon and a very significant change will take place much faster than most people appreciate. Will be like the move from horses to cars and overnight it will become pointless to buy a new ICE vehicle. Hydrogen is a straw man put up by oil and some parts of the motor industry to hold off EV”s. It’s been 10 years away from production for the last 30 years and is still 10 years away. This never changes and won’t in the next 10 years. EV’s could have made significant progress many years ago but battery technology has been bought up and shelved with strict restrictions preventing use in EV’s. ‘Who killed the electric car ‘ is a very informative documentary on the subject - still on Netflix I think. Tesla and Musk are the game changers and are now too big and too successful to stop (after some wild and difficult years).
The real way to go is the development of Hyrogen fuel cell vehicles & the conversion of current fuel stations into Hydrogen stations - the current fad for EVs & Hybrids is just the manufacturers filling the gap before these fully come on stream imo. Also the Hydrogen will be taxed to ensure continued revenue for the Government who are losing Diesel/Petrol tax revenue as people switch to the interim EVs.
Hi Rattie, I’ve done around 1500 hours of research on this subject so far so whilst not an expert I’m into the detail fairly thoroughly and honestly believe that Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world in 5 to 10 years and continue to grow considerably from there. I actually have the polar opposite vehicle right now (V8 engine with a £120 fill up for 350 miles range) and love cars but am persuaded by the performance and other benefits of owning a Tesla. I had high hopes for the Porsche Taycan but it’s just too far behind for 2 to 4 times the money so very easy maths for me to move to Tesla with even better performance than my current car or the Taycan. It’s true that EV’s are a small part of the market but Tesla will grow at 50% plus for the foreseeable future and VW are taking the competition seriously, maybe Toyota and Honda will make strides, most others are in big trouble IMO.. Most other manufactures are simply too late and too far behind in their technology so many will go bust.. As battery prices fall it will simply be a no brainier to buy a good electric car, it’s already cheaper when you take servicing and fuel into account but when an EV is cheaper to buy and then has almost zero running or servicing costs there will be an immediate and massive change in buying and a drop in second hand ICE prices. This tipping point is only 2-3 years away I think, 5 at the outside. The question then is can Tesla (and competent competitors) scale fast enough. If there’s enough demand then I don’t see why not, they built a new Giga factory in a China within 12 months, are starting to build in Germany and are adding another in the US shortly. Each factory can currently produce 250-500k vehicles per year and Tesla can sell all they can build currently. Growth is not as limited as for other manufacturers as Tesla build cars to order within 30 days and get 60 day terms from suppliers so do not need to sink huge costs to ramp up ( other than capital expenditure for factories of which they have plenty). One limiting factor has been the global supply of batteries but that is being overcome and Tesla are starting to produce their own. They have the top researchers in batteries and vehicle technology, many ex NASA (along with space X) and their pick of top graduates from the likes of MIT. None of those key employees are very keen to work for Ford or GM. My car is a V8 petrol which although terrible for the environment is actually fine for the London clean air zones - swapped my diesel ahead of the restrictions as that was a fail but any Petrol after around 2008 is not currently banned and there are no immediate plans to do so. This change will come very quickly and I think that Tesla will keep growing to 10-20 million vehicles a year or more at a breakneck speed. There are still considerable price falls to come as they improve their manufacturing, battery prices, scale and likely move into smaller vehicles after the Y and Cybertruck.
Londonshark- well posted. You will have to go EV anyway in your area as Mayor Khan is extending the no CO2 area soon You can imagine what my taxi driver thought of that! I could not possibly repeat what he said about his brother Muslim! So if other car manufacturers are 8 years behind, are we going to see a mass scrappage of the present vehicles? Alright at the moment only 2% of the market, but hardly a great advance for saving the planet. Maybe other manufacturers will also come up with more reasonably priced battery exchanges like Tesla.
let me know when our government has filled in all the potholes
Tesla are close to announcing a million mile battery and already have a very significant battery guarantee, most other companies are 8 years or more behind their battery technology. I.e the original 2012 Tesla battery performed better and had more range than the latest batteries from any other manufacturers this year. Tesla's current batteries are way ahead of their originals and significant further announcements are expected at an upcoming battery investment day as well as frequent over the air battery management and range improvements for existing owners. There will also be a useful life for Replaced Tesla batteries as part of the grid and the kWh price is falling rapidly. Charging wise I live in a terraced house in Clapham junction. There are many new dedicated chargers on streets all around me, the council will add some to my street after enough requests and there is a policy to cheaply add (slower) charging points to street lights so this is and can be increased quickly and relatively cheaply with government grants so isn’t a barrier at all. My next car will be a Tesla and I’m planning to invest heavily in their shares on the market drop as they basically own this market, many other car companies will be going bust fairly soon. Would really like my EUA payout for this purpose!