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aaaarrrrrrr! ye be on the wrong bb then londonshark.
No interest in what you think is needed Elenor. Didn’t invite your pointless input.
Some clearly finding this thread informative. You can skip or filter if you aren’t interested.
Thanks TDT. BMN a good buy currently IMO, plan to add but have taken a 50% hit on current holding. Have my eye on AMC but no significant funds until EUA provides or I decide to release some NCYT. I’m predicting general market drops for a month or two as results and profit warnings hit so hoping to pick up some bargains but we will see.
My 2 cents - In the long-term (>20 years), yes EVs are definitely the future. However, in the short (<5 years) to mid-term (5 - 15 years), they wont be taking over.
Jarrovian. Elenor. This is an interesting thread started by someone else in relation to palladium and I’ve been responding to questions/opinions. I’ll continue to do so and you can skip this one thread out of many on EUA if you aren’t interested in EV’s. There’s very little new information of value. What really spoils the EUA board is the childish references to galleons and pirates all over the place like its a school production of the Pirates of Penzance. Just irritating , not funny and polluting nearly every thread like the Heavy Oil Jarrovian has pointless referenced to stretch this dull analogy further.. I put up with that irritation silently until you gave me reason not to but please don’t lecture on what can be discussed, get dressed up as a pirates and put on a play or whatever ship based activity you prefer instead.
PROP5 - in BMN fairly recently but have take a big hit there.... hoping for good things.
You'll probably get a more receptive audience on the Amur Minerals (AMC) board.
Not at the moment but I'll take a look. I'm interested in all things EV/battery related so thanks for the heads up.
Prop - aren't you? Look at the whole picture and think for yourself.
TDT - Are you invested in BMN?
For gods sake.
If you believe EVs are the way forward , please post on TESLAs BB.
Otherwise go away.
The ARGO Galleon runs on Heavy Oil with a huge CAT.
TDT, don’t disagree that lithium can be recovered but doubt that will be the case with most Tesla batteries, once they degrade by 10-20% after 10 years or more most packs will be plugged into the grid for storage - minimal cost compared to recovering material and starting again. Even 50% of optimal capacity is very useful when weight and size aren’t an issue and priced accordingly.
One important thing to add. The metals in lithium ion batteries are all 100% recyclable. The point will arrive when mining and processing additional metal for EVs will drop to a negligible amount. The process will become circular assuming, of course, that something better and cheaper isn't developed that supplants lithium ion, solid state or any one of the air type batteries being developed. Even then the majority of what goes into these batteries can be recycled.
The next 5 to 10 years is going to be very interesting current pandemic not withstanding.
Hi rattie, I addressed that point I thought. Prices will fall dramatically not rise - that goes for both batteries and EV’s in general. ICE cars have thousands of moving parts and there is little more efficiency or significant cost reductions to be gained, EV’s have only 20 moving parts and there’s lots of cost improvements to come from both scale and innovation which are both happening rapidly. Battery prices are falling and there are 15 years of proven lithium reserves based on 100 giga factories producing EV’s (20 times current rates) and another 35 years of likely viable reserves, also lithium can be replaced if necessary in both in batteries and for other uses so I don’t see It as a significant issue. We have many years of production reserves of lithium to engineer around the problem if necessary but every historical projection of commodities about to run out has proven to be false. I remember being taught as fact that we were going to run out of oil in 30 years (that was 35 years ago ). Also if you watch the video TDT linked to on the future of transport we will actually need far fewer cars in the future. Autonomy will mean it’s far easier and cheaper to pay a few pence per mile for an on demand EV rather than buy your own that sits unused for 96% of the time, same for India and other developing nations.. We’ve lived with cars and driving being essential for many but young children may never drive or think to own a car in their lifetime. That’s already the tread in teens/ young adults that live in cities and with autonomy will be the case everywhere. In fact we are likely to be banned from driving on public roads in 10-15 years as the accident rates compared to autonomous will be untenable. It’s already a magnitude safer for an EV to drive (where it’s able) than humans and that trend will grow exponentially. When it’s 100 times or more dangerous to drive yourself that let the EV do it people will either choose not to or be banned.
Great debate! However anyone plugging in to you guys informative and intelligent posts could only come to one conclusion. With the enormous increase of technical investment in the future of EVs who would be so stupid to now at this moment to buy what extremely shortly will be a redundant vehicle with a huge capital loss and possibly no customer willing to purchase it. Just a thought!!That's made my mind up. By the way no one has answered my question about the future rise in price, because of demand, of the constituents of battery manufacturing. Lithium at the moment is quite low, but will not be for long if your projections are correct. So,don't buy the car, buy lithium!
There will be challenges ahead, that's for sure, but these challenges have solutions, some of which might not be immediately apparent in the here and now. This below covers a few of these, some positive, some not so.
The above was published in 2018.
This is what the National Grid is saying now.
I guess we will just have to wait and see.
I hope you had a good walk.
TDT i will be watching the Tony Seba presentation later.
When referring to electricity i should have been more specific, meaning that there is hardly enough present supply to accommodate what is needed now and the upgrading of cabling specifically to major charging points ( Service Stations / petrol station) for the required infrastructure the cost will be astronomical and who is going to foot the bill.
Dont forget when you plug 38.5 million vehicles (total number) in to charge something has to give and as i said previously forget about stored power.
Off for my daily walk now , have a nice day
Everybody has an opinion cj62 but you really need to go beyond that. I take it you haven't watched the Tony Seba presentation, not that I think it will change your mind but its worth watching anyway if you have the time.
The UK is probably better placed than just about any other country in the world for harvesting energy from offshore wind farms.
The amounts of money being poured into developing EVs and the infrastructure to support them runs into the hundreds of billions. VW alone has committed $66B over the next 5 years.
The legislation coming in in Europe, which the UK has signed up to, will result in car companies being find millions for failing to meet the new emissions standards. The efficiencies still left to squeeze out of ICE vehicles (not withstanding any cheats car companies might come up with) will not meet these new standards.
The emissions standards being adopted by China make the demise of ICE in that country inevitable.
If your interested in following this development BNEF publications are quite good. Clean Technica is another good site to tap into to keep abreast of what's actually happening out there:-
"EVs will come but maybe another 10-15 years away IMHO."
I think, by 2030 they will be here, there and everywhere and I think the adoption curve will follow the pattern outlined by Tony Seba in his presentation.
"....we can't even manage to get highspeed fibre to all household...."
We already have electricity to all households (with the possible exception of one or two houses way up north)!
This is for a bit of amusement only.
Improvements in efficiency!!!
Renewable energy is commendable but totally insufficient. Stored of electricity presently isn't possible on a large scale and a number of years away. There are 32.5 million passenger cars in the uk NOT including transits HGV etc.
That's quite a lot of power to feed off peak even and as for queues at service station. Oh and I forgot we can't even manage to get highspeed fibre to all household ( presently 27%) and that's after 4 years.
EVs will come but maybe another 10-15 years away IMHO.
As for comparing the UK to Australia, please think again.
Improvements in the ICE / hybrid is the way forward until the technology has advanced enough to make the change.
Then we have another problem in the likes of India who are just starting out.
That is my view gents so I hope you appreciate it as I do yours. Have a nice day all
London shark has just explained it far better than I would have.
One further thing to add, when all the wind turbines are producing electricity at night that has no immediate user, as well as going into battery storage it can be used to make hydrogen which can be stored for later use.
If you haven’t watched this guy before give this presentation an hour of your time. You just need to get past the awful American introduction.
Cj62 - solar and battery storage, especially for peak demand. Battery storage has been a game changer in Australia, reduced costs massively and closed expensive peak coal and gas plants. So way cheaper and clean. Solar costs, efficiency and capacity are improving exponentially , tipping point reached. Also electric cars are mostly charged off peak at night and this can be managed cleverly to smooth peaks (including pushing energy back to the grid).
Good Morning TDT I am all ears ! Apologies but i haven't got a lot of other things to do today .
That is a much easier question to answer than you think but it will have to wait until tomorrow.
Guys I am all for EVs but can someone tell me where all the power is going to come from?
G-man - completely disagree that Tesla will increase its prices because it has such a big lead in batteries. Tesla stated mission is to advance EV’s and a sustainable future. They have consistently backed that up by consistently lowering vehicle prices and putting all their patents in the public domain so others can follow. Only Chinese firms have taken advantage of this. They will continue to lower prices as they scale and battery prices fall as they already have been doing consistently for years. Cost per mile is considerably less now than a few years ago and falls every year as Tesla lower base vehicle costs whilst increasing range both for new cars and existing owners with over the air updates. They will continue to lower prices as their costs fall and they move into cheaper area of the market.
NMS1966 - your argument over current percentages is irrelevant. Massive increases to EV market share is happening and will only increase, it’s been slowed by the availability of batteries and deliberate moves by oil and the motor industry but can’t be stopped now Tesla have reached critical mass. You can either make a fortune by investing or stand on the sideline complaining about irrelevant current percentages for which their are historic reasons that no longer apply. Your negative points don’t reflect any in depth research.
TDT - watched that video - really good and though much of it aligned with my current thinking there was lots of new and very compelling analysis. Have recommended to others. Thanks!