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Given the 2/15/30+ Moz the price could almost be anywhere from 10p upwards as we arent sure what they are going to pay for and at what discount. I doubt the 3rd tier will get anything. The 2M I'm sure we will get the going rate and possibly for the flanks a discount - although the official sign off of the permit hasnt been announced yet although I understand EUA get first dibs on it.
I'll top slice at 10p and see where we go from there and will slice again a few more times if we move up and dont just jump a silly amount (which point I might jump straight out)
Yes me too LB. I've always been around the 10-13p mark myself. Anything else is a bonus.
Que sera sera!
GLA
The Monchetundra Project has an in-situ total reserve and resource value of approximately US$2.1 billion (an internal calculation based on London Metal Exchange November 2018 spot metal prices, and prepared for guidance only) and is now fully permitted for mining.
Based on 59,611 ounces of palladium sold at an average palladium price of US$1,587, revenue for the quarter increased to $149.9 million
https://www.nap.com/investors/news/news-details/2019/North-American-Palladium-Reports--Q3-2019-Record-EBITDA/default.aspx
i mean you can see with the PD price growing 3/4 quarters of the year how their investment would be easily recouped because even if PD rose to $2800 you would get the benefit on the rise and on the fall back to this level or worse
Sorry but 83p must be in cuckoo land. Do you have calls for that? To be fair you called me out earlier today, hope you are right and can call me out again.
I suppose for me I'm trying to get my head around the process of valuing something today, that could rise in value another 20% in 12/18 months for example.
No worries Dealer, nice to have a sensible discussion with people who clearly dont have a hidden agenda.
You have to remember, this is the LAST non consolidated palladium play, it's very much in high demand.
GLA
Lol I can’t believe what I’m reading! It doesn’t matter how many times we’ve bagged a buyer will need to pay the going rate for an asset if they really want it.
Let’s say I’m going to buy a classic car which is now worth 10 million... do I offer the guy 1million because that’s 10 times what he originally paid for it...
They'll pay for 15Moz, as dmitry has said as the figure in negotiations. What they get when buying that, is rights to mentioned potential 40Moz/50Moz. That's how the buyer is getting a great deak, paying top dollar for the lower 2Moz/15Moz figures.
GLA
Poor analogy but you get my point. Big buyers didn’t get rich by paying top whack for stuff. They won’t be paying 83p. They will steal in way before that.
https://www.nap.com/investors/shareholder-information/#stock-quote
I get you history isn’t a prelude to the future but it sets levels. The buyer of assets will know we have 10 bagged today. And won’t get carried away on offer. Or am I missing something.
Good point, but then I suppose cars depreciate in value whereas Palladium seems to be going up up and away.
We shall see
GLA
Of course you wont but compare to previous recent mine sales and take off a percentage for the location you are still taking multiples of this SP.
You probably value yourself car a lot higher than someone would actually pay for it. We will never get ground asset value IMO.
If anything, eurasia have more than a great chance of achieving some crazy sp figures. Palladium on a bull run puts MT at a great advantage in terms of achievable value. Future price predictions means that quite a few majors will be after getting their hands on it, and some of them literally have money to burn for the right asset!
GLA
Had a drink LB?
let me get NAP up for you and you can see how it happens sure they jumped from 30 cents to 4 dollars like that but il get the information
Solg did it.. in the early days
Then did it again 2 yrs later from 1p to 44p
Wouldn’t that be the best ever stock since the wolf of wall st days lol
Seriously. .4 to 4p to 83p ?
What is thoughts on realistic deal price
That's what I was thinking, Jippy. It would be great to receive news of the Flanks licence being approved. It sort of seems to be the next logical step in our journey at the moment.
I'm sure Dimitry will be wanting the company MCap to rise to a level more in keeping with any possible offer price. Currently the SP is way off that. Currently any prospective buyer would be looking at the MCap and wondering why they would have to pay so much more. Of course the value of the PGM minerals is why but the MCap at it's current level may be guiding some companies to making low offers.