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By Barani Krishnan; Investing.com - Palladium roared to yet another record high on Thursday, closing in on the $3,000 an ounce target set by those long on the autocatalyst metal.
Gold, on the other hand, missed another opportunity to return to $1,800 pricing as it settled the latest session lower after soaring to a seven-week high of $1,798.25 on Wednesday.
Palladium futures on New York’s COMEX hit a record high of $2,894 an ounce, rewriting for the third time this week a string of peaks that began since April 13 after the metal that purifies gasoline-engine emissions got to above $2,700. Palladium futures however, settled the session lower, finishing down $32.70 at $2,842.90.
The spot price of platinum did not hit record highs on Thursday but got to just about $2 below the peak of $2,896.68 set during the previous day’s trade.
Palladium has more than doubled in value over the past two years ago due to a shortage of the commodity versus explosive growth in the automobile market, which was expanding consistently at least until the global outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020.
Technically as well, palladium is on one of its strongest legs ever for a rally, surging almost 25% from lows of under $2,295 during the week ended Feb. 26.
Barring a two-week break between late March and early April, it has virtually been an eight-week upward trajectory for palladium.
On a monthly basis, the autocatalyst metal has straight wins from February through April, with a gain of more than 12% for March alone.
Citigroup’s base case is for palladium to reach a historic high of $3,000 during the next three months.
The peak could even be $3,500 if disruptions at Norilskiy Nickel's Siberian mines — the largest palladium producing facility in the world — turn out to be worse than estimated, the bank said.
At a virtual summit of world leaders aimed at driving greater climate action, US President Joe Biden has announced a new target to cut greenhouse gas pollution in the US by at least half by 2030.
Leaders of other countries were similarly keen to share their climate intentions. Before the summit, Japan had already unveiled its more aggressive 2030 target which aims to cut emissions by 46 per cent on 2013 levels, almost doubling its previous 26 per cent reduction goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, announced in October.
On behalf of Russia, Vladimir Putin said the country was developing a carbon pricing and trading system, claiming such a system could allow Russia to be carbon-neutral as early as 2025. Putin said that since the 1990s Russia had already halved its annual carbon dioxide emissions from 3.1 billion tonnes to 1.6 billion tonnes.
Eurasia Mining will contribute towards reducing climate emissions.
"104.6 Moz - why is the Government owned Rosgeo not just digging this up by themselves and selling it?"
Because it would undermine long-term investment, especially in exploration and technological upgrading. Much easier for government to control licenses and enjoy a nice risk-free return on them, while ensuring companies are attracted to invest in the country.
It feels like we are approaching the end game at last - I am not 100% clear on the driver for the EGM shareholder vote but clear that the BoD are working a plan to maximize s/h value one way or another. Perhaps the BoD are planning to sell a % of the Rosgeo JV to Japanese investors - what would they pay for a 10% share to secure PGM supply? $1B?
Thanks for the links and info on auction prices - I would agree "very cheap" at those levels !
Point 2 "very cheap" was going by previous auction values that have been up to $30 million. With the 9 additional pits being contained in 2-3 licences (Alex and Rich found them on the licence map) at $30million each. So full value of 3 licences approx. $90m assuming it follows the normal pattern. Hope that's useful.
NTTG - yes absolutely agree we would expect the auction price to be discounted - I wonder if anyone has any info on precedents for Russian minerals auction pricing levels ? It would enable a rough calc on valuation .. otherwise it's a bit of a guess !
Hi Onassis, great summary and a positive post for any new comers to EUA. It is important to correctly differentiate between "75% of the auction cost" and 75% of the value of each mine could produce. The auction cost is cheap relative to the value of the metals contained in each mine.
Brookkers Cheap is a relative term, but we will be paying auction prices which will undoubtedly be a lot cheaper than buying those assets at full market value. Hence the terminology. Onassis On your final point, the JV and FSP are two mutually exclusive issues. But a good post nonetheless. Thankyou. Happy birthday Banjo
1. The earn out structure means we do not need to fork out cash that we cannot afford to potentially not profit. Cost is spread out as we develop (i.e. not risky). 2. The cost we need to pay is capped at 75% of the value that would have been attained if the sites were auctioned. This is crucial as it does NOT mean that it is 75% of the current or future value, but 75% of the auction cost. (i.e. very cheap) 3. No upfront cost 4. Rosgeo at “arm’s length”. No interference. Peace for us. Free money for them. Win win. The Additional Assets have a total of 104.6 Moz Platinum equivalent resources = $124billion. Feasibility study done and reserves approved by state (i.e. no exploration risk). EUA has already invested some US$8.3 million across the Additional Assets so likely know most of it very well through previous campaigns. Will implement EPCF to develop. 4 pits have already been worked on extensively around our current MT licence so EUA know them well. The ore at these 4 pits are suitable for toll treatment (i.e. using current infrastructure the MT plant to generate immediate cash from at a very low cost low cost). Everything is already in place for this to start ASAP. They are also open pit so usual benefits apply (fast development, less risk, significantly lower costs etc. etc.) 5 more pits seem to be a mix on open and underground. DD and analyses have done here too but likely not as well-known as the 4 pits that sit beside out current licences. Exact make up not specified. Also, no mention off toll treatment so likely far more expensive to develop and operate that the other 4. Key for us and likely the development of these Additional Assets is that this does not affect the FSP. “The Company’s existing mining operations in West Kytlim and Monchetundra will not be affected by the JV”. FSP still underway meaning everything we were waiting on is still coming but with an additional $124billion worth of metal to play with.