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Eua is the next eua .
Yeah you are right Stork £3b is too little for the whole company...
As a non investor you have a pretty dull life...
Nothing else to do?
EUA and KOD going up this week. The Wand buzzed!
TheMadStok
How much money did you lose on
FAST
TEA
AAOG
Anyone can see your posts saying i bought, i added more on those shares and where are they now?
People should not listen to a loser like you.
And not, in fact, by 50-100x, as the absurd fantasy of EUA being bought out for £700m-3bn suggests.
Oh and also Shell's bid was at a 30% premium to the previous day's close, meaning that the market was not in fact undervaluing it by 3 times but more like 30%.
calamari
I tried but he's clearly here to mislead and deramp.
Discussion with someone who claims EUA assets are worth less than $50m?
The man comes across like he knows his stuff but he's factually incorrect on EUA and history shows he's a loser.
I'll give you the valuation on the Shell/BG deal as that was what it was worth when first proposed. When it completed it was actually $50 billion/£35 million, due to the drop in Shell's share price.
How can you not see that a premium of *at most* (disgregarding the strategic reasons) 3x is wildly, insanely different than a premium of 50-100x?
I can't even see the golaposts anymore calamari....they're just a blur.
And remember, it's the "belilevers" (to quote TMS) that are keeping this price inflated.....not the II's, funds etc.!!!
And yes, I'm fully aware they are funds that "have" t buy in from a certain level (I think BR was when we hit 1B?), but someone still has to approve that first purchase and continued trading.
Calamari,
1) The deal was for $50bn, not $70bn.
2) Are you seriously trying to compare a huge merger which brought massive strategic benefits to Shell via intrastructure and market share, which they probably slightly (10-20%) overpaid for given oil prices at the time, to an AIM tiddler selling a low grade exploration asset for *fifty to one hundred times* what such assets are valued at by the world market?
BBs by themselves? Not to this level. I'm saying that the fact this BB is so active and so impervious to basic logic means that there are obviously a large number of private investors who have fully bought into the story and will not sell not matter what happens. Obviously quite a few *will* sell if/when the FSP fails hence the price will be much lower going forward, but there will clearly be enough believers to keep the mcap inflated way above the actual asset value. I'd guess £100-150m or around 4-8p med/long term following FSP failure.
TMS.....I hear you but you're basically saying that BBs such as this can artificially inflate a stock's price by 10-13 fold?????
I'm sorry, I do believe that AIM is very sentiment driven, but 10-13 times....sorry, no.
Absolutely right Bobzrig.
I thought this was particularly amusing....."If EUA is worth £1bn then SSW is worth $1trillion, Impala is worth $1trillion, Anglo American is worth $2 trillion and so on."....because they obviously all have identical extraction costs, confirmed resources etc. etc. Complete clown.
Fop72: Based on the current valuation of other PGM players and the mid-low tier exploration assets they have (and let's be 100% clear here, MT is towards the lower end of exploration assets globally) then EUA's implied valuation should be somewhere around £50m/2p. Obviously it will never trade there even if/when the FSP fails; this board is proof enough that there will still be legions of punters willing to believe whatever story the company comes up with going forward.
Bobzrig: I'm actually being incredibly generous with what EUA has. The supposed 15m oz it has outside of the 2m defined resource is incredibly speculative based off of very little drilling and would in no way even be considered Inferred under JORC. I'm also applying a hefty discount to the theoretical valuations of other PGM miners, as they all have mines built, reserves not resources, production, cashflow etc.
I think the reason for TMS's valuation is that he is using a very very very conservative assumption regarding the resources EUA has.
IF TMS is correct on that, then yeah, what he says is correct, other companies are massively undervalued in comparison.
However, that assumption is that EUA basically has nothing in the ground of any value, something most posting here disagree with.
Trying to put a price on what is in the ground is pointless if there isn't any agreement as to what is actually there to value. This is where opinions come in as to what EUA have, what information may or may not be in the data room and how easy, or otherwise, it would be to monetarise the remaining resources (if indeed they exist).
I disagree with TMS's basic assumptions, so we will have alternative valuations. Hence why he is shorting and I am not.
So TMS you're sugsesting that if we work to roughly your SSW numbers EUA should be currently priced around the 7p mark right now? If I've gone way wrong here then apologies and please correct my error. Otherwise I don't really see your point.
Robert no one pays attention to you already I'm afraid. The lunacy of a £20 target demonstrates your lack of knowledge, credibility and that you are a few cans short of a 6 pack.
Calamari,
Where has 750b come from?
No one, not even Hoochy was suggesting that!
We will soon find out "the value" of Eurasia and I would suggest it will be north of where it currently is.
One major point when looking at this is the low extraction costs, transport links, NN nearby. All positives on the dawn of the world's green future!
Calamari - this is not the biotech sector, where every drug and treatment is different. This is mining, where commodity prices, extraction costs reserve and resource figures are all standard and known.
EUA has one mid stage exploration asset with a JORC resource of 2moz 2E PGMs (plus about 15m oz which would not even be in the inferred category under JORC). It has no DFS, no BFS and is years away from production in a hostile juristidiction with little infrastructure. This, under the theory of the bulls here, is worth £700m - £3.5bn.
SSW, to take but one example, has 400m+ oz measured and indicated, plus 500m+ inferred resource. It has huge reserves, production, cashflow, plant and equipment etc etc. It's current market cap is around £10bn. Under the theory of the bulls here, it *should* have an implied valuation of *at least* £750bn, or a 75 bagger from current prices. Similar calculations can be done for every PGM producer on the planet.
Yes Robert, let's ignore facts and believe your fictitious and nonsensical ramping numbers.
Great logic.
Dunno - how much 2E PGM resource does it have? According to the "EUA not in fact wildly overvalued" theory, then every 1m oz resource should be worth anywhere between £350m - £1.5bn. Congratulations!
Billions
Of course you can average out the industry and extend the number of years to drive the average down - for mining this is around 40-45% - but within that there are of course premiums which are much greater, and some much lower.
Many here believe, due to many and various factors, that we would most likely be at the top end, maybe even the very top.
How much is Europa Metals worth @TheMadStork? You missed us out!!!
That's very insightful RMR. Without looking into the list further I would hazard a guess they are small sub 500mcap acquisition.
Another view from the same source is also interesting with a 10 year view:
https://www.bvresources.com/blogs/bvwire-news/2020/12/09/get-a-sneak-peek-at-control-premium-data-on-acquired-companies
What on earth are you talking about? My posts in this thread have never once mentioned takeover premiums for individual companies.
It's very simple: If EUA is worth £1bn then SSW is worth $1trillion, Impala is worth $1trillion, Anglo American is worth $2 trillion and so on. How likely do you believe this to be?