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The license has been approved by all the federal bodies, just waiting for Rosnedra to complete it, but it's in the bag, and all bidders know it.
GFD, Pretty sure he's going to run with the 78p.
It's all over his research note pal.
The rns of 9th Apr 2020
''This update is made further to the announcement of 11 February 2020 which stated that, following social media speculation, trading in the Company's ordinary shares was suspended pending clarification of its relationship with CITIC.
The Company clarifies that its conversations with CITIC to date have been with CITIC Merchant Co. Limited ('CITIC Merchant'), the merchant banking arm of the CITIC Group Corporate Limited.....''
And thats the clarification.. oh please....I said from the get go that the suspension was to prevent undesirables grabbing shares and it would appear to have worked.
GFD - it's good to talk about these things, as others have said we have an opinion but aren't the ones doing the deals!
78p would be a decent premium on the 46p fair value down to bidding competition.
Flank approval and increased production plans send 'fair value' sky rocketing but I prefer to think of that as greatly increasing the likelihood of 78p rather than thinking we will get the £1.50,£2 plus kind of offer.
GFD - I think the flanks is definitely on everyone's mind and I am sure the company and UBS know the impact of it on share price extremely well.
Also really looking fwd to getting some news on flanks - but I don't think we will unsuspend (if we do at all - M&A may well be complete during suspension) without either the license, details of bids etc - so I am not too worried about it
It is all about timelines GFD
34p - current NPV for Mt based on 1.9Moz and EPCF with SinoSteel
78p - weighted average of FCF analysis and WK and full takeover price if we sell in 2020
Flank approval is great and a gamechanger, but it also needs a revised production plan to take advantage of 15Moz compared to 1.9Moz. Otherwise you end up with a mine with 100 yrs that doesn't increase the FCF much. They've now said 1000Koz is feasible as a long term plan, probably by 2025/26 to allow time to ramp up to those levels. This would need a lot more CapEx.
Assuming this gets done and recorded in RNS along the way :
384p-686p by 2026 becomes new fair value based on FCF $21-$22bn and NPV $11bn or so
Hence I believe 78p to take this off EUA hands in 2020 (20% of long term value) is very achievable.
That is your problem - Exclaiming and not sticking to new facts.
Same as Ben. I hope this comes back to trade so I can pile in even more using COVID profits. I doubt we will get a chance to add below 10p though because as soon as II's start buying this will fly. Some people will obviously sell for their own personal reasons but it wont bring the SP back down because everyone else/ II's etc. will be trying to scoop them up. Good position to be in but I am also annoyed because I am greedy and selfish and want more.
mike001 . I suggest u calm down!!!!!!! (oh do I need more exclamations)
It's good that it's the UBS table that they have to be putting their bids on, they will know UBS only deal with big deals so will have to put big bids in lol
GLA
Wolster. I suggest that you have just contradicted yourself. Why discuss it ?
Got my feet up, chilled, just waiting to see what they put on the table tbh -
"In recent months, Eurasia has received a number of inbound expressions of interest from multiple parties interested in acquiring all of or a stake in its assets"
GLA
Mike001 this is called a discussion board for a reason - im sure we can discuss the flanks to our hearts content & at no point is anyone of us amateurs trying to say we know better (with only half the info the BOD have at their disposal) .
As long as we have two or more companies who want the assets/company then the share price is pretty irrelevant! Far to late in the day for a hostile takeover as we’re currently in a formal sale process.
The BOD have this all in hand :)
With so many scenarios mentioned especially about the Flanks etc - do you not think that the BOD have all of this in hand and do not need us amateurs to think we know better ? We do not !!!!
Totally agree, stay suspended until minimum flanks license, preferably stay suspended until flanks license and offers received with a reccommendation from the board.
Genuinely don't share that concern. If MT without licence can fetch up to 34p for fair value of the asset and share price is currently at 7.2p, it is entirely reasonable should suspension end, to see the share price rise up nicely upon resumption to somewhere close to this assigned NPV.
The licence is obviously going to be a great addition but we are in a very strong position whilst it comes along.
The fact we retain NDA's with interested bidders for MT suggests they are of similar opinion.
I fully agree it will be volatile which I was I updated my thinking to assess where things could head when trading resumes.
To summarise, I would love to see an offer before suspension ends, obviously that is a win win for us all. But if we do resume shortly, it will still be part of the process of achieving fair value for Eurasia.
maru - Cove Energy 2012
Share price before putting itself up for sale was around 110-130p. Shell announced first offer at 195p (70% premium). Ended up months later being bought at 245p.
So approx. 2x return on share price before putting up for sale, when the deal went through. Fair below the % EUA will achieve.
Gecko - I said in the Mining Community as that is very important, there isn't a wonder breakthrough like you describe available so that comparison doesn't translate imo.
My £1+ is after a bidding war, easily obtained in my eyes if the right war materialises. You would be looking at 50% on top of any fair value in the right situation.
All present dynamics lead to that war materialising imho. S.A problems, palladium demand, last non consolidated palladium play etc etc.
Perfect assets at the perfect time is very much the situation at play here.
GLA
Eurasia themselves had Monchetundra on their site as a "Two billion dollar play" long before the flanks license was nearly in hand
The fact is the core of the BOD have been in this for a substantial amount of time whilst taking no salary, you don't invest the time and effort that these men have to walk away with a low ball offer
This is nigh on certain a once in a lifetime opportunity for them all including ourselves, the quantity the demand the deficit and it's vaslt low extraction costs put the company is a very very strong position in negotiations
I don't subscribe to the £1 plus shouts but can fully understand and appreciate the logic behind it, in my humble opinion we are looking at somewhere in the region of 64p full value but that's just my two cents
If you had a rare classic car that you had invested years into it's upkeep and restoration and you knew it's value would only rise in years to come you wouldn't flog it to the first punter who offered you a low ball figure
These men are savvy and more knowledgeable than anyone of us here and they know they won't get another opportunity like this
Just imagine the Only Fools auction episode with the watch......
Cove Energy 2012
Incidentally im at no point knocking our BOD choices (I think they are doing a great job) its just the shear power of NN in that local vicinity carnt be discounted - even if the law is on our side.
Tbh i think you guys are worrying about absolutely nothing, clearly over thinking a relatively simple process imho.
GLA
GFD - the market cap is relevant whilst it is 'cheap'. We might wish to believe it is all about the asset value, but very few large multinationals would sanction the purchase of an asset for billions from a company worth £200m or so.
Yet to find an example in the mining community over last 20 years. If anyone can find an example of this for a listed company, I am all ears.
I would consider myself heavily invested on this with millions of shares, but I am very relaxed if/when we come back trading. Part and parcel of life when investing. Driving up the price with large II purchases will remove the market cap argument and ensure all potential bidders are brought to the table at the right prices.
EUA finds itself in such a strong position and I have utmost confidence in the Board to realise fair value for the assets
Eurasia also have offices in the area, they will know exactly what's what with the application -
https://www.eurasiamining.co.uk/operations/monchetundra
GLA