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I've been in this share a long time (only recently found this BB, have posted on advfn under a different nickname, upthepool).
I've had a go at the AIG calculation previously, over there, but that was before the REM were flying and before the possibility of a raise of resources to 40Moz was known about.
Really struggling to get to a sales figure now. For reference, I got to 78p for the 15Moz + a bit for WK and the tailings project - but as I said above who knows what the Rh, Iridium etc is worth to a bidder, and WK has improved since then.
GLA, its been fun since my 0.56p average, and I think there is more fun to come yet
Deneway, you are spot on. Each oz is not worth the same. This is one thing some fail to grasp.
Anyway my view is aim low and anything else would be a nice surprise. With the pie in the sky figures of some there will likely be some disappointed punters when the deal is announced.
Abstract statements don't make them true. I've said numerous my guess is as good as the next as there is no way enough information in the public domain.
Tell me the split if measured, inferred and indicated resources for one.
This is what I think may happen to get us to a final price.
A % AIG will be used for the 2Moz proven.
A lower % AIG will be used for the assets that takes us to the 15Moz.
A lower % again AIG will be used for the historical assets identified outside of the above two.
What the % used above is the million dollar question, hence the widely fluctuating opinions on here.
If you're struggling, like many of us here believe you are, you can also have a little look at page 17 in this link, a nice simple way of explaining to certain people the value curve as certain feasibility studies are done on assets -
https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf
You see, i've provided you with everything you need, you just haven't read any of it lol
GLA
Please enlighten everyone as to how resources are proved up Billions, what it takes to go from known PFS to a DFS stage. The PFS was done without Eurasia's drilling data, bare that in mind.
Or are you now wanting to ignore 80km+ of drilling data and the PFS's because it doesn't suit your standpoint?. The cracks are well and truly showing now.
GLA
And what does the DFS... please enlighten everyone?
Correct me if I'm wrong, MT has a JORC resource of 2.2moz. The rest is targeted no way this is included in the DFS based on historical data alone.
Ok billions we'll go there just for you -
From the company presentation:
"• Adjacent to Loipishnune deposit
• Within prior exploration license and drill tested through Anglo
JV "
From RNS -
"Since the final approval of the Flanks licence (see RNS of 25 August 2020) the Company has been putting together the database of information from previous drilling campaigns in the Flanks area, that is considerable. 48,405m drilling (announced via RNS of 18 August 2020) is related only to one part of the Flanks License (NKT) and comes on the top of 33,100m drilled by Eurasia's Joint Venture with Anglo American Platinum. The Russian feasibility study on the NKT palladium dominant mine (within the boundaries of the Flanks License) gives 15% IRR at the palladium price of $659 per 1 oz, while the current palladium price stays above $2,000 per 1 oz due to long term structural deficit in the palladium market."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EUA/interim-report-z4vq8goh3rc2usr.html
"Extensive prior drilling campaigns with c.48,000m drilled at NKT, a part of the Flanks application."
"Our predecessors also developed targets in the NKT area, and areas to the east of the Loipishnune deposit, and these work programmes in 2015-2017 resulted in pre-feasibility studies lodged with the State Cadastre of Mines in Russia."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EUA/general-update-and-institutional-placing-at-225p-yh2uz9tcbjepr54.html
Anything today or is that it?
GLA
I'm well aware. Just making the point unless it's in a DFS or already being mined at that level then it doesn't mean much unfortunately. It is a plan at this stage only and requires development and proving up.
It starts with the fully financed Sinosteel contract Billions, have you done any research?. You seem very green behind the ears when it comes to Eurasia tbh. The contract includes a specified processing amount, but, it hasn't been started due to the current FSP. The plan that i have put into this thread is the most recent one given for Monchetundra, the one dropped into RNS last year. The 15Moz, 22Moz total including the legal exclusivity area is for Monchetundra, the asset they were planning to take into production next.
GLA
Fair point. For understanding will we mine 1moz this year? If not then when will this happen and what will it take to get there?
"Eventhough underground development will cost significant amounts" - that doesn't happen until the initial open pit mining is done. We currently have a 20 year open pit plan at a full capacity rate of 1Moz a year.
The AISC is far lower, one reason is because it's Russia, things cost far less in USD to get things done over there. Part of the beauty of it being in a country with a weaker currency.
We don't assume anything, we go off what is given in RNS and what is provided in company presentations. The next flank app takes us to 22Moz -
https://www.eurasiamining.co.uk/investors/presentations
As metal prices increase more grade levels become economically feasible to extract as well.
GLA
The Canadian eg is approx 21p eua equivalent. I dont think it's a coincidence that the current sp is not far off this level
Let's believe the lower costs and no capital outlay. Eventhough underground development will cost significant amounts. Also let's assume the mad resource extrapolation that are being made.
5x the Canadian eg gives us £1. Bingo. You need your head tested if you believe the 3,5 10+ numbers.
Certainly RMR, our costs are far lower than that Canadian example, which in turn makes a vast difference to projected profits etc. It's still a very good starting point to look at things and make comparisons. The comparisons allow us to fully appreciate the great position Eurasia is currently in, those legal exclusivity rights to surrounding areas is a huge advantage for a first mover position as it allows a very straight forward expansion plan to be made in theory.
GLA
I believe our AISC is approx halve of what is suggested here too!
That makes a big difference also.
The other thing , the equipment is similar to what EUA have at WK, think they have more dumper trucks though.
Mining
Mining methods will employ conventional open pit, truck and shovel operating practice. Three pits will be mined over the 13-year mine life, with an additional two years of pre-production mining to be undertaken where waste material is being mined for construction and ore stockpiled ahead of processing plant commissioning. The mining equipment fleet is to be owner-operated and will include outsourcing of certain support activities such as explosives manufacturing and blasting. Production drilling and mining operations will take place on a 10 m bench height. The primary loading equipment will consist of two hydraulic face shovels (29 m3 bucket size) and one large front-end wheel loader (30 m3 bucket size). The loading fleet is matched with a fleet of 13 x 216 tonnes haulage trucks. A fleet of two 90 tonnes excavators will be used to excavate the limited volume of overburden material and will also be allocated to mining of the narrow-thickness ore zones associated with the W-Horizon in the South Pit to mitigate additional dilution.
That's the beauty of this, it's very close to MT for the initial 1.9mz/Oz given the fact it's also open pit.
When you then add in flanks extra 13.3 m/Oz and WK it shows the value we have.
These statements are very good and should give every one confidence
With the consensus outlook for palladium and copper strong for the next decade,” commented Executive Chairman Kerry Knoll, “this is a project whose time has come. With little new PGM mine capacity being scheduled to come on stream over the next few years
The scale up value and the fact they are putting large investment in which they will re-coup in 2.3 years should show how much value could be had by someone with deep pockets to scale up MT quickly, from then on its a lot of profit.
Hi SW, thank you for sharing this document. Really appreciated. As Mac said we are looking to produce 5X their capacity also, unless I’m reading that wrong? Is anyone able to work their magic and extrapolate the figures and convert to SP?
GLA
Another point i should make now, is the current 1Moz per year full capacity mining plan is only for the open pits. For the ore that can be mined via under ground techniques once the open pits are depleted, a new feasibility study would have to be done for those resources. Higher extraction costs etc -
"In November, following weeks of delays at congested assay labs in St Petersburg, Eurasia were at last able to announce results for a drilling program of four target zones at Monchetundra. Zone 2 emerged as having underground mining potential, delivering grades increasing with depth from 4m at 1.7 g/t Pt+Pd at 75m depth to 3.6m grading 8.4 g/t Pt+Pd at 190m depth. In Zone 3, lower grade but potentially economic open-pittable mineralisation included 6.7m at 1.8 Pt+Pd some 90m below surface and 36m at 1.8 g/t Pt+Pd only 75m down. Overall, given the current prices of the two metals, the platinum:palladium ratio was encouraging at 0.6:1."
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/226/eurasia-mining-revisited-0188.html
GLA
Mac...have you got a guestimate of in ground value per OZ of PT at MT?
That's another good starting point, we have lower costs here and a far greater mining life, so that would effect valuations accordingly.
Should i mention the obvious point, oh go on i will -
"MONCHETUNDRA
A fully funded development project; with 15moz palladium dominated PGM resource, it is one of the largest assets globally not owned by a PGM major.
Asset overview:
Ownership: 80%
Operating Partners: Sinosteel, Central Kola Expedition
Region: Murmanskaya Oblast, Russian Kola Peninsula bordering Finland.
Mine type: Open pit.
Licensing: Mining license to 2038. Financed via Sinosteel EPCF.
Status: Preparation for production.
Product/Offtake: PGM and base metals concentrate (Palladium dominant, Platinum, Gold, Nickel and
Copper).
Infrastructure: Road, Rail, Sea Hub, Power and labour. Close to Finish border
Mine life: >20 years
Target production: 1,000koz at full capacity
Exploration upside: Expanding mineable reserve base via acquisition of adjacent licences"
When you have 5km exclusivity which is protected through Russian law, things can only be expanded upon, such a great first mover advantage the BOD have placed themselves in!
GLA
Thank you. This is genuinely one of the most useful posts that I have seen on here for a while.
Like I have said for the bidders and shareholders, all that really matters is the DFS. Without sight of that we are all just clueless.
Hi All,
I usually stick on the telegram groups, found the following for a Canadian mine which is very similar to MT minus flanks, feasibility study from a few days back showing operational cost and scale up.
Didn't see it mentioned so wanted to share :
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/03/03/2186576/0/en/Generation-Mining-Delivers-Positive-Feasibility-Study-for-Marathon-Palladium-Copper-Project.html