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Thanks Monty you make a fair point yourself! The only downside to your approach is that the market is unlikely if ever to fully recognise the monstrous reserves in your share price if everything is under wraps.
And in the context of selling said assets and proprietary rights, however, you'd instead be looking for/ needing a heck of a lot of goodwill. Literally (accounting joke)!
Never seen a company sale done quite the way EUA have set their stall out. Hopefully we'll see if it all works out for best soon...
Don't see a reason to be concerned,
We've had big sellers since resumption of trading in July, there are many PIs who have huge holdings and simply don't want to wait anymore.
It could be someone who thinks this may go on for a few more months and thinks the price may drop further.
If AC had sold his shares to the open market, I would have been slightly concerned yes, but the fact that it was a direct sale at 29p to Veles (whether it was for cash or whether he's doing some dodgy tax stuff) is enough for me to be satisfied.
@oldspurs - Good point, and normally I would agree with you, but not in this case. Surely even if (say) NN take EUA over fully, they will still want to retain the proprietary data. In fact, I would guess that this is explicitly part of what is being sold by EUA alongside the assets themselves. Given that so little, relatively speaking, is proven up, and this is the last non-consolidated palladium play, I can see a lot of benefit in them retaining as much opacity as possible vis-a-vis the wider world's knowledge of the specific outline of their assets. They'll literally be able to exercise price-setting power over global PGM markets. It strikes me that there's a lot of value in saying something vague and equivocal like "yes, we've spent X-billion on a large asset that currently has X-million oz of PGMs" while then spending the next 20 years applying for new licences, proving more up, and quietly adding to their truly monstrous reserves, all to be slowly drip-fed onto the market for decades.
I agree, someone always knows something.
Remember back to a few days before suspension? The buys that were going through as the price shot up from 3p to 7p.
It'll be the same again, key thing now is to watch the volume, I would have been suspicious of pending news if there was more volume these last 2 weeks, there has been a LOT of buying going on and I feel like without the big seller, we would have easily ran up into the 30s.
Lets see what happens, I do feel we will hear something inside the next 2 weeks.
16:39:42 27.957 757,154 211.68k buy
757,154 is a big buy. If it's blackrock or a short closing, we'll soon find out. If its an II , we can only be notified when they go above 1% and they would have to have 27m+ shares. We're seeing a lot of large trade action which is a good sign. MMs holding the SP back while IIs load up below veles, mates rates. Share are going to sticky hands, those who will hold all the way which is also a good thing. Most traders are already out and hence the low volume. GLA
"It's not going to get leaky. UBS AND DLA PIPER will not have their reputations ruined for some impatient investors..."
Yeah it will. It always does. Even if just for a few minutes before the RNS lands. Just think of the number of potential leakage points: outside of the core team negotiating the deal, at every single step - Eurasia, buyer, bankers, legal, Russian authorities, takeover panel, NOMAD, insurers, London Stock Exchange, the list goes on - there are higher-ups and lower-downs who know things or will know things, even if they just overhear a conversation in a hallway or see a photocopy of a document that relates to a minor part of the transaction with a date on it, before the market does. Some of these people will actually be very distant from the transaction itself, but necessarily privy to information where they can make more educated guesses about what and when than you or me. You're talking hundreds of people, which exponentially becomes thousands once it hits the City rumour mill. The idea that every single one of those people can keep their mouths shut is fanciful, especially when they've spent 18 months themselves gossiping with mates who are invested in EUA about it and will be pestering them for a cheeky nod. That simple fact of human fallibility and inability to keep a secret is why I don't believe in conspiracy theories.
- that was to Monty's 15:27 "why on earth would you want transparency?" See the thread's had a few more comments since!
Monty what you say makes sense only in the context of JV or Farm in, where EUA would continue to exist following completion.
This is an FSP so the first and foremost intention is a sale of the company and its assets. What is has should be open to scrutiny and allow fair valuation. This would also allow the bidder to convince their own shareholders that a) its worth buying and b) worth buying for the multiple £ per share that we all want.
All interested buyers and bidders are confidential anyway - them's the rules.
There are a number of things which scare me, they include people with guns, knives etc, Your opinions do not...
IMHO nobody knows what is going going on behind the scenes except for the company... surely if no sale was going to happen you would of thought we would have got news of it by now but like selling anything its not done to till money changes hands snd contracts are signed etc..
It is taking longer than most would of thought and we keep saying maybe today maybe tomorrow maybe next week and now we enter March for me it has to be this month at some otherwise I will really question it.
Hope we get the news we looking for soon as I think we lots of us going slightly mad here waiting lol .. GLA
IMO NDN suggest you keep your opinions to yourself!!!
DORE123: FOI only applies to public authorities.
Spoon fed
NDN
What are you on about
Yes they do have an enormous amount of data
Historical, desktop and drilling data
You obviously have not kept up with information spoofed to you
27.75 finish
Well they have done a good job of keeping it water tight so far, assuming the bids value the company higher than we are now!!
If you could that would be appreciated thanks.
My understanding is that it's very unusual. Most takeovers are with a premium of 50% or whatever. But then those takeovers are also generally of companies where lots of information is in the public domain and they are relatively easy to value in terms of future revenues. Even in the mining sector, how often does a junior explorer even manage to sell its asset, let alone find itself with an asset on the scale of this one? Eurasia is a complete one-off in these regards, so it's reasonable to suspect that the eventual takeover price will be a one-off too.
My suspicion is that it will get leaky before long and the share price will start rising quickly in anticipation of the announcement so that the premium is not as large in percentage terms as it otherwise might have been. If you think back to a few months ago when we had the big rise alongside the various tracker indices buying in, at one point there were buy orders on the book of 50p if I remember rightly (although they didn't get executed, presumably because they didn't need to). When news really is close, we could get up to and beyond that very quickly I would imagine.
Montmuzard... Awesome couple of posts IMO.
Thanks for sharing
ATB LB
Thank you for taking the time to post your responses. Very knowledgeable. I’m more confident now there is less link between the bids and the share price, in fact the share price is just random walk. Just curious, has there been any occasions in the past when a firm has taken over another at a gigantic premium on the previous closing days share price, i.e. well in excess of 300%?
The other thing to say on the transparency question - and what seems to me to be really the crux of the issue - is the enormous gap between proven reserves and the sheer unimaginable scale of what is actually under the ground. This is a colossal grey area and sweet spot for negotiations.
On the one hand, EUA officially has 1.9m oz of palladium. Fine, there you go, $5bn once mined. But, on the other hand, all of their proprietary data will point to potential multiples of this: tens of millions of ounces of palladium, the rhodium, REEs, nickel etc. contained in the flanks and flanks of flanks. How much is that worth: $50bn, $80bn, $100bn? Nobody knows, but EUA has oodles of data taken from their own work, stuff they inherited from Anglo, and decades of Russian state and academic studies, and that is the thing - along with their syntheses of it - that is kept rightly under lock and key.
Normally mining transactions are based almost entirely on proven reserves. In this case - the last non-consolidated palladium play, where only a tiny fraction has been proven up, and which EUA has another two decades of exclusivity to play with as prices keep rising along with a JV they can action at any time to start mining - all of that big grey area comes into consideration. We are all sailing on a galleon that really is a historical one off. Every single variable - 20 years of hard labour on the part of the BOD, Anglo-American's earlier disinterest, rising PGM prices, the coming post-Covid infrastructure boom, NN's cash glut looking for investments, the trouble faced by South African miners, the fact there is literally no other similar asset waiting to be bought anywhere on earth - has fortuitously aligned to make this company insanely valuable in a way that it wouldn't have been at any other time.
So, it is the proprietary data that determines where on the scale between the $5bn we know about and the $100bn we don't the bidder is prepared to stick a pin with a fractional number between 5% and 10% written on it.
Montmuzards response needs to be the post referenced anytime anyone asks why no release of what's in the ground...superbly written.
I do however think if there's zero communication on where things are at in March then there's another slide to go on the SP. Hopefully the RNS we're ALL waiting on is soon.
"I am intrigued as to why there wasn’t more transparency, as it could have led to a higher share price"
Why on earth would you want transparency? It's like asking Tesla to give up their battery designs. Crazy talk.
Publishing more data may well have a short-term impact on the share price, today, but that doesn't mean it would necessarily lead to a higher sale price in the FSP. Quite the contrary. The whole point of having UBS run the show in the dark is to draw in potential purchasers (who themselves would not want to be identified) and keep nudging the price upwards. The only way you entice them is by dangling the carrot of the various bits of proprietary [read that word again: proprietary] information that are included in the data room, which itself has various doors that get narrower and narrower that only bidders invited into successive rounds of the process get to enter.
So, you give all serious bidders access to the general data room, but by the time you get to this stage, only the preferred bidder will have access to the most sensitive information. This has the effect of increasing the price during successive rounds of bidding - both because the bidder wants to access more data and also once they have that data they are prepared to pay more to secure the assets - as well as building trust between the two parties and locking the prospective buyer in.
It's madness to suggest that a company like EUA would just publish much of this stuff. For one thing, they would be naked in the event that the FSP collapses, with everyone knowing exactly what they've got, being able to attempt hostile takeovers etc. And for another, this isn't actually about EUA: it's about whoever the buyer is. Assuming it's Norilsk, there is no way on God's green earth that they want the rest of the world knowing the precise details of an asset that is likely to give them a dominant position within global PGM markets.
For as long as the takeover panel remains happy. That suggests that the takeover panel is happy, which means I'm happy. The longer it takes, the more complicated and intense the bidding war, and the bigger the prize.
How long can eua drag this fsp out for under this nda before they are forced to communicate with their share holders , days pass , weeks pass , months pass and soon years