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LB, top post. They’re the facts laid out for all to see.:-)
….Part 3
Time factor;
This is a large complex company now, with multiple assets all at varying positions of development. (multiple Lasonde curves). The addition of Rosgeo assets has added a new dimension to potential value and time scales. There could be multiple bidding parties (alluded to in RNSs) that each want different sub-sets of the assets. The desire for these subsets may be causing conflict to proposals by each party. These bidders may be consortiums. This makes negotiations complex and time consuming. Also consider the whole world has slowed down due to C19. It is generally taking longer to achieve things.
Conclusion ;
The BoD want the best deal. They have a desire to maximise value for shareholders.
0.5p, 14p, 23.25p, 26.5p, 45p, 78p, £1.03, £3.50, £35…. Simply Wall Street’s fantasy figure
who knows?
Given the above, on balance, I propose the bull case out strips the bear here.
Personal perspective ;
I've de-risked my position. Overall taken out more value (£) than I put in. Still sat with a modest 6 fig holding. If it goes to zero (unlikely) then I'm up ~40%.
Personally I don't really care how long it takes now. Who's shorting. Who's holding. Who's selling. What the scam pundits on twitter make up. What the MMs do. Whether I have pirate blood in my veins ;) Etc etc
Due diligence complete;
AIMHO. Certainly NOT investment advice. DYOR of course.
Peace out lovelies x I wish you well with your investment.
ATB LB (cutlas secreted about my person arrgggghhh)
…Part2
Recently;
Off take partners identified by NN in sales pipelines over the border in Finland for vertically integrated battery metals value chain (from NN investor day presentation). Infrastructure being upgraded for the big copper project. RSBN Blockchain project gaining traction. NN signing a 5/10 Yr collaboration deal and agreeing Ni/Cu/pgm offtakes with Russian Platinium (NN press release 2/12).
Generally;
Gov backing for Arctic region tax breaks. Indigenous populations being actively supported. Emissions being drastically cut. AP and drilling contractors on the case for months working for RosGeo.
Positioning;
All this stuff going on whilst there's a widely held market belief of an impending deficit in battery metals (items in our basket) and a global commodity SUPER CYCLE about to kick off.
MT, flanks and the Rosgeo JV assets are geographically slap bang, bullseye central to an area that appears (fairly conclusively) to be subject to having significant financial, political and engineering resources thrown at it.
EUAs assets seem to be positioned in the perfect place at the perfect time both in terms of geography and market cycles; as eluded to by Fitch research note above.
This feels like owning a sweet shop next to a school... Before the school's even been built.
Diversity;
Meanwhile WK is actively being scaled up (x3 wash plants, flanks extension approved and permitted for 365 day stripping) providing an income and potential interim sales pipeline. Satellite image analysis kindly provided by a1ex show continued expansion. Room to grow at WK.
The elephant in the room; risk
Disclaimer - look away if you have rose tinted spectacles on. Any number of things can potentially go wrong. This is being posted in the interests of a balanced perspective.
Of course there are risks. Anyone not considering the potential for downside, no matter how unlikely or small, is foolhardy imo. Please make your own mind up but to me there is an element of geopolitical risk here. Where there's big money involved there’s usually some level of manipulation.
There is always a risk of ANY company going private or shifting its listing destination. This is an AIM listed stock; it carries by its nature elevated risk. The value of any publicity listed stock can go down as well as up. General bull/bear global market sentiment swings. Impacts of Covid 19.
According to Morningstar data- insi holdings have displayed net drops last 2 months running. MStar Managed Fund exposure is not significantly increasing (private US II placings aside). MCSI rebalance static. There is a risk (slim) that the unseen JORC report is flat or underwhelming.
Standard M+A business disclaimer:- "Until a transaction is finally concluded there can be no certainty that a transaction will occur or on what terms." RNS 28/10.
Cont…..
Afternoon Eurasianites
First a reminder of the INDEPENDENT Fitch research note, published on Ortex this week in regard to the Russian mining landscape;
-----------------abridged-----------------
MAIN PLAYERS
The mining sector in Russia is highly consolidated, with only a handful of companies accounting for the main share of domestic output.
Norilsk Nickel is the country's largest metals producer. The company accounts for the lion's share (more than 90%) of domestic nickel output. In January 2021, the firm joined the Responsible Sourcing Blockchain Network (RSBN) built on IBM blockchain technology which helps improve transparency in the mineral supply chain. In 2020, the firm's Russian nickel operations increased 4.0% y-o-y to 172kt.
The country's palladium and platinum subsectors will rely on
>>>> Eurasia Mining
and Polymetal International in the coming years for
>>>> production growth
--------ends---------
The Company;
Heavily incentivised BOD. Dmitry holding 465 million shares, more than II nominees according to EUAs website. DS initial investment many years ago according to video interviews. "shirty mileon" (30million). 2 successful private placements executed. Company is sat in a cash liquid position fully funded for Rosgeo obligations. Potential buyer completed DD. Company progressing several transactions concurrently. JORC report imminent. License transfers imminent.
Add these parties;
UBS. DLA Piper. CKE. Absolute Precision. SP Angel. RosGeo. Gipronikel. Wardell Armstrong. Tamerlan and the Japanese connections. Konstantin and the RosGeo connections. Alexander and the Norilsk Nickel connections..... plus many more of course.
Consider;
NN on the doorstep. Published evidence of a massive clean up going on in the wider Kola district. A new, doubled capacity, esg friendly smelt facility being built in Monchegorsk. Investment active in the area.
Cont…