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Blast, forgot to add in £1.50 final sale price for Ian - if you have the time to read all the posts, thanks! 1hr 15 that took me to catch up on today's posts!
£1.50 is retirement figure for me
Just doing some number crunching before I start the night shift (at work - explains the 3:15am post GFD!)
As posted last night on the back of Frankies twitter post
30T of Pd @ £50,231/kg = £1,506,930,000
15.5T Pt @ £23.733/Kg = £367,861,500
2.14T Au @ £47,091/kg = £100,774,740
28,000T Cu @ £4.90/kg = £134,120,000
30,000T Ni @ £10.90/kg = £327,000,000
= £2,436,686,240
So gold is worth approx 4% of the total metals
Copper is worth 5.5% of the total
Nickel is worth 13.4%
Nickel was worth 3x as much back 15 years ago.
If the price of nickel and copper double (on the back of the green revolution) then the total in ground value will jump up by 19%
The 1.9moz was at a historic Pd price when Pd was worth less, and pt and gold were worth relatively more (compared to Pd price today) At todays prices, the palladium eq price, using a 31g troy ounce, comes out at 1.56moz Pd eq. This includes copper and nickel.
If just purely based on pgm prices, then Pd eq is 1.44moz.
EQT is my favourite to 10 bag. Placing out of the way, industry leading syngas energy from waste. This produces electricity, gas and steam as well as useful byproducts from the Ash.
Looking at peers VLS and PHE - EQT is the most undervalued in the sector.
Appologies for the cross ramp. I talked about vls previously just before a massive raise and share price halved. Hope nobody got caught out based on my ramp, its always the danger.
EQT did a 10m raise and the market cap is 30m. Expecting first year of decent profits this year and only a few million debt. Great fundimentals
Hopefully when we do get an acceptable offer it will be highly detailed for all you boffins.
The same method and assumption for 19million ozs produces £1.10 per share. Basically approx £167.00 oz in the ground with $350.00 extraction costs /£270.00.
Total purchase and extraction costs circa $567.00 an oz, don't know if $350.00 oz allows anything for the cost to build the mine.
The Board know what it is worth and wont let it go for any less. Up to the interested parties to meet the price.
1.9 million ozs At $2k per oz its $38billion, x 80% its $ 3.04Billlion.
divide by 2.9billion shares its $1.0483, x15% its 0.157cents a share.
7.89 is the factor for 1.9 to 15million so 0.157 x 7.79 = $1.24 per share, X 0.77 exchange rate its 96p approx less 10 % tax its 86.4p.
Casio Fag Packet Calculator
At 2k it comes out at 84p I think personally speaking anything around the 1 pound area weve done well until we get an update on resource upgrade at wk/mt and the other assets we have were just guessing. But I know one thing I'm so glad I'm holding and hope it works out for us all... gl
we know it costs 300/400 dollars to mine per oz dependant on prices we could get more I just used 1.5k as a lower end estimate try 2k because its certainly possible..
15mill oz × 1500 lets just use this figure as an example
15mill × 1500 = 22.5 bill
80% ownership = 18bill
10% in the ground valve could be more is 1.8 bill divide by 2.850 bill shares comes to 63p a share.
Thats just mt we have other assets which will add to the value we could get something for the mentioned 40/50 mill oz who knows only when that rns drops will we get an idea. Gl
2.4 bill at 10% would be 240 mill thats in the ground value
On 2.85 bill shares thats 11p
So let's say 15 mill oz roughly 7 times more resources
7 × 11 = 77p
80% of 77p = 61p
This is reality not noddy land we could get 15 to 20% in the ground value
Frankie, which "mine acquired" are you referring to? The North American Palladium mine? If so, the purchaser already owned 20% of the shares so that is a good equivalent as we only own 80% of MT.
Also the cost of extraction at this mine was quite a bit higher than what has been calculated from Eurasia. Although they had already built their mine and it was operational. I guess you could argue we have a working mine already at WK...
So if this is a total sale, add on 4 or 5p for WK ?
Actually the 1.9moz is PD equivalent of PGM's so it includes platinum, palladium and gold but they will be at pre covid values.
Version 1.3 should use the kg weights. Here are the quantities in £ and in Kg/Tonnes
30T of Pd @ £50,231/kg = £1,506,930,000
15.5T Pt @ £23.733/Kg = £367,861,500
2.14T Au @ £47,091/kg = £100,774,740
28,000T Cu @ £4.90/kg = £134,120,000
30,000T Ni @ £10.90/kg = £327,000,000
= £2,436,686,240/ 1.7billion = Growth of 1.433
1.433 x 712m = £1.02b
1.39b divide shares in issue = 37p
Not bad for the 1.9moz.
x7.5 for the 15moz and we get £2.81
There was also a poster recently who talked about resource grade metals and pure grade. Should we be valuing the in-ground metals at the lower grade price or pure grade? Really not sure about this.
I know I’m going to have to do 1.3 version
As it calculation should read
3,315,336,000 / 1.7billion = Growth of 1.95
1.95 x 712m = 1.39b
1.39b divide shares in issue = 51p
I’m only human.... but I think people get the equation.... again this is first offer MT mine only.
Frankie, you forgot the rhodium, iridium and also a boat load of platinum. Well done though. We also have some cobalt if memory serves. Have a good weekend.
Version 1.2
https://twitter.com/veteran_frankie/status/1292241148937895936?s=21
Cheers aandi, I have amended it....version 1.2 is up now lol.
I’ve got around 44p but again that’s very conservative....
Very achievable.....
Thank you again for correcting me..
Frankie, check your figures for Nickel and Copper. You need to raise your final sale figure by 12%, so 47p minimum.
Minor point but every little helps! Also don't forget this is easy to mine, at surface with processing plant. Also, "bidding war" =)
Anything under £1 would be disappointing in my view.
It's fair for the 1.9Moz at MT, any figure for WK?
GLA
I know it’s not a lot compared to other numbers but I just wanted to work out what is the minimum this could be worth.
All numbers I used were rounded down and I advantage of the buyer.
I myself am hoping for the flanks to be granted then it’s a different ball game, I’ve just gone for what we have in place. The facts.
With multiple bidders it could be well above that.
With the flanks and surrounding areas MASSIVE!
Good luck all..
Yeah if that's the minimum (thanks for showing your workings too!) and assuming there is more than 1 interested party, it has to be more than that, how much more depends on number of interested parties (they already mentioned "several interested parties" hence they had to get UBS involved... lets hope these interested ones have deep pockets and a bidding war gets us way up from there, 42p is still a healthy profit but when you crunch all the other figures being thrown around it'd somehow feel like a let down haha
Based on the acquisition price, the growth rate and current metal prices.... and no other news....
I think the minimum this can be is around the 42p mark....
https://twitter.com/veteran_frankie/status/1292195709375127555?s=21
However I still think +£2