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Tigra managed to hit many nails on the head, in that building site with that post.
A little more realistic. Around 7000x 2019 revenue. Makes Tesla look like a bargain!!!
Great 3 posts on EUA ‘Billions’, looking forward to a lot more! Keep up the good work!
BOB
Totally agree with you.
This will be a circa £2.87 per share outcome ie $11 billion
Come on EUA bring it home
Fair point. I was just a little flippant with 50p. Agree 70s would be a realistic base which is approx 50% premium from the all time high.
In a perfect storm scenario maybe a £1 to £2 deal may happen but things really would have to align.
Look at the recent Chinese buy out of burtica, npv of the project was 900m and the buy out of 1bn. The dfs is based on measured resources and not inferred. So in the case the unsubstantiated 28m resource estimate does not figure in the calc.
A premium is irrelevant in this instance this is so unique a absolute one off and a pound is peanuts for the resource, $4 billion would not take this amount of time IMO.
We are looking between 8-12 billion dollars here, I’ll come back to this post when it’s confirmed as I believe it will be within the next 2 weeks.
All IMO...respectful of others opinions (+£30 quiders not included LOL)
NTTG2, I did not say I believe BoD ‘want’ to mine, I said that they’d reject 50-70p low ball offers in favour of mining. As you say, 20 years of hard work. Are they going to give it away for peanuts like 50p? Some 10% higher than our SP in December? Doubtful
Tigra, appreciate the comments RE: ACF. You’re right. Our basket of metals have improved considerably and the ACF report omits the region surrounding MT which the holder of TGK licence will have first ‘dibs’ to as it were
I’d love a $10bn sale as it would net over £7-9m profit, sadly I think that it’s something the board of somebody such as Nornickel could justify to their shareholders. After all, it’s 1/5th of their entire market Cap. It’s also all of their 5 year investment budget used in one fell swoop, and they will need some of that budget for sure for other expansion (not to mention if they did purchase MT/EUA, they would need to Build the mine, cost of employees workers etc. This would be factored in and unlikely to be outside of a $10bn budget)
There’s the trouble of having to justify a share price premium of 1,000% also, which is extraordinarily large.
I do believe, however, these prices are very much achievable if EUA (or the owner) decided to mine and produce, year on year the growth would be rapid. But there needs to be something left for the buyer. A good deal struck is one where both sides are slightly unhappy about it.
£4bn sale of the company is well over £1. Have to laugh at the fact that that prediction gets you filtered nowadays!
300% premium to today’s 27p for £1.08 would make every holder a substantial gain from their investment, even if they bought at the very top. Something our directors would accept IMO. Christian, Dmitry, would be on 8-9 figure profits
Agree Tigra. Potential numbers here are beyond our ken.,,,,but potentially required input of Sinosteel not to be forgotten and may be clogging the gates.
NN have had an awful 6 months. £2B fine for fuel polluting the sea, and more recently, two mines flooded by sea water. NN MCAP £50B. Potential collapse of refineries due to current mine production, and we see a perfect storm. However, I do not think DS will take any advantage of circs affecting NN; but will hold with any pre-agreed deal. NN my favourite for a good deal while at the same time acknowledging that for DS, this is much more than money; its history; its 20 years of his life; the loss of Alex; its the huge sentimental value, that cannot be bought; which Alex will never see! (very hopefully, his family will!)
“...this is the biggest event ever never to be repeated for decades...”
Hilarious.
Br closed their short must of had the nod.
@ramp
That would value company at £4b. Again that wouldn't take this long, into the green coffin with your mate billions
Billions. Quite right about the market cap, £1 or thereabouts is a sensible valuation
Disagree with 50p. The acf states 70-78p post flanks so eua are clearly looking for that as a base. If not they’ll just say no thank you we will mine ourselves and earn 5x that when the Pd is mined
70s is an absolute base and anything above is most welcome. Multiples of 26.5p easy!
But 50 quid lol. Anyone suggesting that needs to switch monnikers with me
Sorry for popping the bubble, but someone has to call out the idiocy here.
The reason why it's taken so long is only clowns, maybe like a couple on here, would make an genuine offer without a DFS. Now that its here, I expect the deal to be cleared by end of this month.
@Billions
Do you really think it would take this long to negotiate a deal for those figures filtered for being at t#at
I feel some people lucked into this investment (me probably included) and have no real grasp of share prices, market cap and reality.
£50 is nonsense. This implies a market cap of over 150bn which is much greater than Anglo American, Glencore and Antofagasta combined.
In reality anything between 50p to £1 would be a jackpot.
Hoochy, you really do help me keep the faith!
Ive never sold any and wont do until D day but it can be disheartening to see profits erode and shares that you want to get in on rise in the meantime
If it sells for 1/10th of your valuation ill be over the moon!
I was just pointing out that even small percentages of Rhodium change things significantly Hoochy. Someone said there was only 0.5%, so.....
15,000,000 Oz divided by 100 times by 0.5 = 75,000. . . . . 75000 x $27000 = $2,025,000,000
22,000,000 Oz . . . . . . . . . . . $2,970,000,000
The Rhodium factor is far greater than people think, even if it does just end up being a small percentage of total metals mined, due to it's very large price, small amounts equal very big potential returns. It was at $5000 an ounce when Dmitry said there was a significant Rhodium credit and appeared quite excited at that level in interview.
It's not worth those figures to us in the current FSP situation, but, even a change of a few hundred million dollars onto an buyout price = more money into shareholders pockets.
GLA
You may be right WTF, but I would prefer to describe Hoochy's posts as outrageous rather than ludicrous, and we love him for it. His posts have provided a degree of levity at a time that has been stressful for many reasons, for a lot of people. Whether you like him or not, I think The Hooch has given a lot to this board and kept our spirits up during this long wait. When it's all over, i hope we can follow him on other boards.
GLA, It can't be long now. W.
So do I gary.
Any thoughts about whether Qatar's Sovereign Wealth Fund could be involved?
Apologies if already been mentioned.
Oh so it's jumped up to £50 now, that certainly makes it more accurate.
Hoochy's valuation has to be the most ludicrous out of everyone's. There are some really intelligent and well-researched valuations that get shared on this board and they are all between £0.60 and £2.50. I find it extraordinarily hard to believe that so many people, including GMF78, have valued the share price wrong over a poster that can only seem to type in capital letters and gives everyone the 'Kermit finger' if they question his £35 valuation.
I hope Hoochy said intraday RNS today
And my whiskers say Hoochy is closest