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Rosgeo JV and wider more thorough Kola asset analysis, it's clearly what AP were secretly brought in for back in March 2020.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B-ZhwV-jEjC/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
They had done 6 assets of the 9 in sept 2021 -
30 September 2021 -
"· Block Modelling and open pit contouring and optimisation complete for 6 of 9 Rosgeo JV projects."
It's quite mind boggling as to much much work they decided to take on after the bank RNS in 2019, working the entire time to analyse and therfore gain maximum value from their first mover position at Monchegorsk.
I always wanted Eurasia to take it to production at one point, but, it's that large it's definitely a game for a good consortium, and, well, Eurasia would make more than enough from selling assets at the appropriately explored and thoroughly analysed stage.
The demand appetite is there for a large consortium to scoop it all up, time will only tell whether that takes place however!
Citic Merchant have never left, that shows just how keen the potential buyers are from that aspect of things.
GLA
The potential is therefore greater than the 184.6Moz stipulated to be at MT, NKT plus the Rosgeo JV assets due to the section you've highlighted -
"The table DOES NOT INCLUDE new applications made by the Company that will be announced when the reserves and resources estimation is compiled."
The potential NPV calculation is approximate and limited by many factors, but, even if it's halved it's $10bn and again wouldn't consider any of the possible additional new applications.
The district has a pretty crazy resource potential, Eurasia are in an extremely fortunate position to have help on and developed their position there through the weaker metal price times etc. They held on and kept going and it's ultimately paying off for them!
GLA
It's all of the areas at the time lovelyboy -
"Eurasia Mining Plc ("Eurasia" or the "Company"), the palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium and gold producing company is pleased to announce the reserves and resources breakdown by metals for the Monchetundra Project(Loipishnune and West Nittis deposits), the NKT area, and the projects included in the agreement with Rosgeo (as announced via RNS on 26 March 2021):"
New applications are for other resources they may pick up using Absolute Precision's fancy surveying technology, an example is this new license area which falls in to the exclusivity zone but is outside of MT+Flanks and also the Rosgeo JV -
https://twitter.com/TheBakingTrader/status/1501485643813249027?s=20&t=Kn823_TxCZFkftT492_bTQ
You then have the notable area change of the NKT extension application that is in the Russian system, there are a few on twitter watching that closely and updating any are size and shape changes.
With AP's gear they will get far more accurate ore body models than anything that has been done previously imho.
Indeed lovelyboy, they also appear to be deliberately holding info back, so, you have to ask why? Is it due to the conflict, or, is it due to areas going under NDA's to a buying consortium. We know that the license system is now far simpler due to the EDRC agreement, so, could licenses simply all arrive on completion of all analysis in to the holding subsidiaries and then swiftly be given to a buying consortium in our current 'For Sale' environment? I believe they can, and due to the current Nickel demand, those assets containing Nickel are as good as sold imho.
GLA
Just to add. From our discussion the other night - I do concede that this line:-
"The table DOES NOT INCLUDE new applications made by the Company that will be announced when the reserves and resources estimation is compiled."
Does suggest that they are assessing the other 8 areas.
ATB LB
Strawberry - who is bothered with what you think lol...
@Mac - Your doing lots of calcs so would appreciate your input on something.
R+R RNS - 08 February 2022.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EUA/reserves-and-resources-update-yo5o2qemf1ltax1.html
Top para :-
"Eurasia Mining Plc .... is pleased to announce the reserves and resources breakdown by metals for the Monchetundra Project (Loipishnune and West Nittis deposits), the NKT area, and the projects included in the agreement with Rosgeo (as announced via RNS on 26 March 2021)"
NB - JV projects plural.
Under the table:-
"Foot note 5 - The total of reserves and resources in the table above is 184.6Moz of Platinum equivalent."
Below this:-
"The table above INCLUDES the Nyud deposit for which Eurasia's subsidiary already has paid Rosgeo ......and the license transfer thereof will be separately announced....
The table DOES NOT INCLUDE new applications made by the Company that will be announced when the reserves and resources estimation is compiled."
Question - Which is it?
184.6Moz includes MT, NKT and ALL the Rosgeo projects. [Likely given the total qty and your $19.8Bn calc]
184.6Moz includes MT, NKT and Nyud alone. [Unlikely it would mean Nyud is disproportionately massive]
Sorry I think it's ambiguous wording and misleading to include all the Rosgeo projects in the total estimate when only Nyud is actually currently applied for. AFAIK they haven't decided to progress any other projects beyond this first area. YET!
However, IF they decide not to, the 184.6Moz will tumble down by approximately half. A finger in the air figure based on JV total.
Makes a huge difference. How do you read it? I'd appreciate your thoughts.
ATB LB
Aubrey
I think that's why mac used the word "waiting"?
Tick tock...
Problem is Mac there is still v little by way of ‘proved reserves’
A, B, C1
Probable and potential all very well but…..
See, NYUD was complete a long time ago now -
"The table above includes the Nyud deposit for which Eurasia's subsidiary already has paid Rosgeo (as announced via RNS on 26 March 2021) and the license transfer thereof will be separately announced. In the meantime, Wardell Armstrong International has presented a draft CPR under the JORC Code and the NPV model to Eurasia for review. Nyud is a nickel dominant relaunch project, similar to NKT."
Such an easy waiting game when that was said to have been done 6 month ago!
GLA
Now, as per NYUD, the reports can be done and the BOD has to review them. This leaves an element where the BOD can review them for as long as they like after draft reports are complete, and, well, essentially release all of the Rosego JV JORC NPV etc info in one go whenever they like.
The chances are that Rosgeo JV assets were going to the MT buyer via ROFR agreements, to be bought when JORC and NPV analysis etc are complete. Due to the conflict, they're now perhaps looking at one transaction to cover MT and anything from the Rosgeo JV side which may have had ROFR agreements in place and be looking to exit Monchegorsk, and therefore Russia, in one orderly move.
If it's a Chinese state consortium moving via Citic Merchant for the Kola assets, the Russian gov will agree to all and any requests due to the strengthening BRIC's relations dynamic.
They also want the district in production and foreign investment from an entity like China would 100% allow that to take place.
GLA
To the state, Eurasia are a registered Arctic resident -
"Companies that intend to use tax incentives and investment support in the Arctic shall apply for Arctic residency status. Taking into account the above incentives, Eurasia has started cooperation with ERDC and filed an application for the inclusion in the register of Arctic residents to be able to enjoy the incentives, benefits and administrative support granted to the investors in the region. This application has now been approved"
They get full state support and a far simpler license system via EDRC. I encourage all to go back and read the EDRC RNS, it's one of the main things that changed long after the Rosgeo JV was made, and it cements Eurasia's legal position at Monchegorsk.
GLA
Koka Kola's all round -
"Establishing cooperation with ERDC with regard to all Eurasia's projects in the Kola Peninsula ("Kola") will allow Eurasia (whilst current majority owner of its Kola subsidiaries) to obtain further state support and various tax and non-tax benefits for both Eurasia's own projects and all the projects included in the agreement between the Company and Rosgeo (collectively "Kola Projects")."
GLA
The licenses arrive via the new EDRC system for Kola that was signed last year, it's all legally binding -
"· The right of registered Arctic residents to get land lease for their projects in an out-of-auction procedure, whereby it can be the Arctic management company that grants such lease right to land plots in state or municipal ownership. This regulation considerably simplifies and speeds up the process of obtaining land lease rights (Article 15 Law 193; Resolution of the Russian Government No. 91 dated 1 February 2021 "On the Approval of the Rules of Granting Land Plots in State or Municipal Ownership and Located in the Arctic into Lease by the Management Company of the Arctic"). This enforces the titles to the projects in addition to mining related licenses and potentially speeds up the development of mines;
· Tax incentives and non-tax benefits;
· Legal defence of rights and lawful interests of registered Arctic residents by the Arctic management company (Article 17 Law 193)."
If it's all legally binding then there's little point doing the 75% ownership stage, it's more logical to JORC the entire lot and move straight to 100% ownership. We already have the funds for doing so, they raised those from institutional investors quite some time back -
"· The financial position of the Company is sufficient to accomplish its commitments in relation to Rosgeo JV, where a JORC resource by Wardell Armstrong is to be announced shortly"
It's simply a very easy waiting game while they do the entire lot!
GLA
It always happens, that's why they disrupt.
Block modelling and open pit oprimisations were done on 6 of the 9 Rosgeo JV assets back in Sept 21. Now, where does block modelling fit it? Well, the answer comes from the NKT Tier 1 JORC report, it's part of the process of doing JORC, NPV etc, therefore the BOD are doing the entire Monchegorsk district -
"· The wireframe and the block modelling of the high-grade Nickel, Copper and PGM vein part of the NKT is in progress and represents another upside to the MRE and the NPV."
If they're doing the entire district then they'll inevitably arrive at an entire district NPV as per the approximate calculation in this thread!
GLA
The green boxes only come to disrupt and try to get factual posts taken down. It's pointless arguing with them, just report, filter and then continue the posting of company things to discuss, like the lovely potential NPV -
"Now, since we know it's all heading to JORC and NPV etc, the fun part, the potential entire district NPV -
"· The net present value ("NPV") using an 8.33% discount rate for the underground part of the NKT project is $1.2bn under the WAI price forecast"
That's for 11.2Moz of the potential 184.6Moz - "· Tier-1 scale: 305Kt of Nickel, 143Kt of Copper, 57 tons of PGM and Gold (11.2Moz of Platinum equivalent) have been estimated by WAI as JORC-compliant resources for an underground mining operation."
So 184.6 divided by 11.2, then times the answer by 1.2 = $19.78bn (rounded up) potential full Monchegorsk district NPV.
Koka Kola's all round!"
GLA