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Hi aandi.
Thanks for all your research and knowledge here. It’s a great board imo. Hopefully it stays that way when we are sailing into double figures. I think someone said we need to be at 11p plus for the FTSE 250?
Like you I’ve also been invested since last summer. I made some money on the fluctuations but got bored too and missed the initial big rises. But I made up for that by investing in phe just before the large rise from 3p. Although I had been watching eqt since 2017 so I guess I’ve timed my entry quite well in that respect. So likewise I’m just sitting and waiting and if can average down on any drop I will. I’m sure we will get another large rise of at least 80% over a few days on good news and I’m not prepared to be out if that happens.
Anyone know what happened to GVH?
Good luck all.
Thanks aandi, I hope you're right!
50p next year would be lovely v111jas!
Thanks! It was posters such as Ophidian and in the past Lunsam amongst many others with well presented research that attracted me to this share instantly. Then as the research was done and the share price stayed under 0.5p for so long I was scratching my head wondering why so undervalued. Ended up selling through boredom and had to jump back in quick around November. Won't be making the same mistake twice
Norfolk ; iirc ~ Reg was looking for / hoping for twice that .
Now I think he will probably have to wait for 2022 for his 50p !
Fingers crossed for that ;)
Oh other news that might land in an RNS one day in the future.. New plant to be built with a focus mainly on hydrogen production.
Then some government somewhere or European body announce a huge grant to contract Eqtec to survey and replace ageing incinerators as a means to the reducing the countries energy carbon footprint.
~ " my share price prediction is 4 x this which = close to my 24p end of year price prediction. " ~
Slightly more than my prediction / hope , bring it on !
As usual ; terrific knowledgable posting aandi .
Certainly one of the best , idiot free , information loaded BB`s on LSE . Many thanks for your invaluable contribution .
*Actually the last pipeline figure the market was aware of was €400m end of September 2020.
Pipeline grows €400m in one year, and DP is receiving a few calls a week offering hundreds of millions of investment (every week). Just need to match projects to investors. For this framework deals and EPC JV's are required. Good job Eqtec took on 4 senior staff members in the last 3 months.
Yeah why not, if three or four things happen:
Woodgroup come out with a 4 or 5 star review and in the same breath sign a deal to finance, build and operate RDF plants in the Middle East, Asia and North America utilising the finances of some of the unsolicited infostructure investors offering hundreds of millions of investment capital weekly.
Large EPC joint venture deal signed for building and operating plants in Britain and Europe outwith the framework agreements already in place. As a deal sweetener, the EPC are offered first right of refusal on four new large projects in Europe under license agreement.
£80m capital raise when the market cap hits 4p early summer giving us funds to advance the pipework and take 25% equity stakes in each of the projects with the highest IRR %.
Pipeline continues to grow reaching €1B either announced at the interm results or a trading update announced the week of GOP28 spiking the share price into the Christmas holidays like Christmas there past.
Share price did 1000% in 2020 when the pipeline jamp from €130m to €500m with covid and a court case. €500m to €1b+ with two new EPC partners in my opinion can take this to 24p
You still hoping for 24p this year aandi? That would be very nice but I feel it would be going some now!
Hope you're right all the same!
Points very well made Aandi, some of the info is useful if combined with the superior knowledge we have: as you state pipeline contradictions and the drag for ITM of building their own factory (don’t get me started on the farcical first factory) rather than outsourcing/contacting that work. (There may be parent issues for ITM that means that is the only model that works).
I would not write all sites like this off automatically.
Some, more than others do have their uses if they are used in the correct way, i.e. not as your primary source of research.
I would not invest, or make any decision solely off the back of any articles from one of these sites, but some will present items of use/interest, and I feel that the majority of rational investors accept these articles for what they are.
There are some great posters on these boards who provide some excellent information and reminders of why posters will have invested in their particular stocks in the first place, although a bit like these 'research' sites, sorting the wheat from the chaff is sometimes no different!
gla
I'm not disputing that the algorithms may be bs, but the data matches that available from the broker notes for both companies, so using it as a tool along side say London stock exchange website allows historical and future fundimentals to be worked out. For instance they say ITM overbought, I agree. And that's based on an inflated piooelinne figure they use. (supplied by the broker, not decided by simply wall st), where as it states buy with a price target of 6p plus for eqtec, based on a 2024 revenue figure which only accounts for the current pipeline. What the real 2024 revenue figure could look like, let's put a low figure of £300m of new pipeline turned into deals per year, with an 18 month delay to reach financial closure (likely to speed up with large EPC), 35-40% of the pipeline converted to revenue. By 2024 we could have an extra €300m on top of the €109m quoted. So working back from 2024 estimated revenue (which is what simply wall street algo is doing, they actually show the sum under the details tab), my share price prediction is 4 x this which = close to my 24p end of year price prediction.
Of course the tech needs validating, a large EPC JV with favourable terms for Eqtec signed, and continual shift of wealth into green tech for this wild prediction to come true. But its not impossible
I have great respect for your postings here Aandi,
But ‘Simply Wall St’ is simply B**lsh**t. Computer generated unedited nonsense. If it’s telling me ITM is overvalued and EQT significantly undervalued that’s been obvious for years now. That’s why I sold ITM at £1 (obvious mistake!) to buy here at 0.195p average (clearly not).
The difference is the management; ITM buffoons (perhaps now better with Linde in board), EQT transformed under DP. That is the component that the computer algos just cannot capture that will drive this up to that sort of valuation whilst ITM goes sideways (or down.
I see on simply wall st, they have eqtec fair value at 6.8p (section 3.1 share price vs fair value) ITM fair value is 58p (currently 491p)
Eqtec revenue vs (ITM revenue)
2020 2.4m (3.29m?)
2021 15.5m (6m)
2022 55.6m (30m)
2023 118.5m (80m)
2024 109m (143m)
2025 no data (246m)
So Eqtec have a larger project pipeline than ITM, but the revenue growth flatlines (actually slightly declines for 2024) but ITM broker notes forecast revenue to continue increasing year on year exceeding the current pipeline, basically estimating future pipeline sales not yet on the books. Double standards!
This simply wall st website is quite detailed in its Analysis, it has been updated with latest broker figures but still relies on the 2019 FY financial data. The 2020 FY data will cause their algorithm to upgrade rheeir price prediction further.
When checking PHE data, they can't give a price prediction as there are no broker notes, no analysists data to use.... I find this strange, eqtec have 2 (now 3), ITM have around 10 but PHE have zero? The website even states that 97% of companies have research and this is rare. Not wishing to scare anyone but do the fundimentals suggest overbought or a hold share price? No data or confidence to predict future revenue at this time. Then again it might just be too difficult for the simply wall st robot to find! Well worth signing in to use the free service and have a read. Hagwa
*EQTEC CAGR figures in the next 3 years of between 113 & 545% If the broker reports are to be believed.
To my eye it looks as if this is based on the most recent pipeline and does not include further growth so for example the 2023 (and potentially the 2022) CAGR % figures could be higher.
ITM currently classed as underweight by both Barclays and Morgen Stanley with 800p and 600p targets (490p S.P today)
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/ITM/morgan-stanley-sees-itm-power-sales-growing-at-70-cagr-over-decade-to-2030-c3ul8vwfulcvlah.html
"For the decade ending in 2030, the analysts projected compound annual rates of revenue growth of 35% and 70% - admittedly from a low base - for NEL and ITM Power, respectively."
2020 2.4m
2021 15.5m = 545% CAGR
2022 55.6m = 258% CAGR
2023 118.5m = 113% CAGR
Total project pipeline at key dates:
December 18 - €30m
December 19 - €130m
July 20 - €341
Sep 20 - €407
Feb 21 - €657
Increasing 4 fold every year...
I am not sure if it is auto-generated as DG never responds to any posts.
As a test can you confirm DG12?..............
Thanks for the link DG12 - I checked out the Yahoo "analysis". Blimey - whoever writes it clearly hasn't made much money on the stock market. No wonder they stayed in journalism.
Are revenue and earnings forecast to grow ? ( A forward looking question relating to future outcomes). Answer: "Earnings have declined by 29% per year over the last 5 years". Err, firstly that's a historical perspective, and secondly a quick check of the Fundamentals shows revenue growing from £50,000 in 2016 to £1.69M in 2019. And the RNSs of late have all pointed to growth in 2020 despite Covid.
Share price liquid and stable ? No. I'd agree with that ! but then you look at the SP three months ago and it was 2.5. Yesterday - after 3 months of bouncing - it was 2.3. Hardly volatile. The same view could be applied to pretty much any AIM share.
Shareholders diluted in the last year ? Yes, 9 months ago since which the SP has quadrupled.
Honestly, does anyone actually pay attention to this lazy "journalism" ?
Looking at DG12's posting history the majority is here in EQT, mainly offering insights from third-parties such as Barclays (Neutral/Bullish in late March) WalletInvestor, and Stockopedia (consensus price of 3.5p also late March). Don't know if you have an agenda, DG12, but man alive some of these sources are dreadful.