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Kibo book value end of 2020 £26.8m
Eqtec book value end of 2020 €27.5m
On paper, Kibo had more assets at the start of 2021 than Eqtec.
“Who in their right mind is going to invest early if the track record of every project has been delay and rework over and over again.”
Agrigas 1 reached financial close within what 7 months of its first announcement? As did Karlovac.
The funny thing is had the small cap green energy market not crashed, had there not been the forrest fires at Northfork, the court case, the gas crisis, the Ukraine war- we could have perhaps financially closed another 2 or 3 projects at least by now.
Anyway it’s healthy to debate these things so the BOD and new share holders can get a feeling for our concerns and make informed decisions.
"They are nothing but TROUBLE!"
And DP is supposed to be the financing expert, anyone doing the slightest amount of due diligence wouldn't have touched Kibo with someone else's s hitty stick. Getting involved with them has been a mistake from day one, and throws into question the judgement of the EQT directors, getting in bed with Kibo in the first place.
"Once one deal is completed in this way, more willing investors with higher credibility start coming along and invest in the SPV’s earlier"
Thats DP's theory, problem is we don't seem to be able to close out the first deal, as soon as we get close to financial close another fly jumps into the ointment and around we go again in the optimisation cycle. Who in their right mind is going to invest early if the track record of every project has been delay and rework over and over again.
We have seen PHE announce their MDC today and the market obviously didn't like it with a 10% hit to the SP, its basically an admission that they are struggling to commercialise at scale, needing to physically demonstrate the technology and we have two MDC's with a possible other on the way.
DP keeps stating he doesn't want EQT to be the owner/operator of these sites, but no one else wants to take them on at present, so perhaps his "IT Company Strategy" is not the correct one at this point in the technology lifetime?
It's not about the Kibo share price. It's about the company which has been a black mark on EQT since the day of the announcement on 16th September. They are nothing but TROUBLE!
Yes I concede you are probably right. Unless Kibo can rise like a Phoenix from the ashes and start issuing more shares to new investors…
Kibo could be seen as a loan shark, short term cash at high gross margin return with the project equity as collateral. The risk being not reaching financial close on time. Once one deal is completed in this way, more willing investors with higher credibility start coming along and invest in the SPV’s earlier
Actually Kibo share price didn’t crash immediately. Here’s a timeline of significant events at Billingham in 2H 2021,
Kibo investment in Billingham SPV RNS was announced 16th september-
And on the same day, this news article came out-
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19585126.jobs-risk-billingham-cf-industries-plant-forced-close/ (most likely the main premium offtake customer as they are next door to Eqtec’s plot)
Eqtec were omitted from the government review of the UK gasification industry 7th October for not having a biofuels/hydrogen pipeline
COP26 - 31st October, coal is to be mandated against worldwide. (Kibo busy trying to sell its coal assets)
Kibo share price starts to nose dive 6th December.
Billingham and Deeside deferrals announced 13th December.
Make of that what you like! Could Billingham have been squeezed over the line had Kibo had a stronger share price and ability to sell assets, raise cash and invest in the SPV or was the project always going to be deferred by Eqtec due to the gas crisis and stakeholder influences.
No one in their right mind would want to be associated with Kibo after investigating them. The cash raise of £7 million you mention is for another new project in Zimbawe (not Billingham) that probably will never happen . Like all the rest! Kibo has no income and no cash and can't even pay the directors' salaries. But it does have regular cash raises diluting shareholders to next to nothing.
"Both Kibo’s and EQTEC’s business priorities have resulted in the parties’ putting on hold any such investment. It remains EQTEC’s intent to sell project SPVs to one or more investors at the earliest possible stage of project development, provided such sale supported the advancement of the project and EQTEC’s interests in it. EQTEC would consider any future proposals in that context."
Kibo disqualifies itself.
The wording of that answer to me doesn’t completely rule them out.
“Both Kibo’s and EQTEC’s business priorities have resulted in the parties’ putting on hold any such investment.”
Kibos share price crashed, their holding in Mast didn’t do as well as hoped, they couldn’t sell their African coal assets as they became toxic after COP26 and Billingham was delayed a year so the terms and timeline of the Kibo SPV investment would have completely changed.
Where we are at now regarding timelines, Billingham land purchase agreement terms remain roughly the same i.e financial close is expected before the £8m land purchase, originally the LPA long stop date was end of feb 2022 and the kibo RNS was 16th September. Just over 5 months apart.
New land purchase agreement is now 23rd December, so working backwards, can we expect an update middle of July with something about a third party SPV investor or a funding partner?
Generating early revenue from Southport appears to be a similar arrangement as the one in place at Deeside.
From the last Southport RNS’
“As the Project matures toward Financial Close, the Company intends to sell a majority equity position on the Project SPV and invoice the Project SPV for development services fees provided.”
Aandi. re your comment on Billingham. Kibo will have no future part to play in this project as announced by EQT. This is a massive relief as Kibo is a micro company with no cash, a 10 year track record of no projects ever completed, just serial value destruction for its share holders. Now EQT can start again and hopefully attract an investor with credibility and the necessary finance.
36 Q&A's from EQT's Annual Results Investor Meet Company last month on line;
Q3: Does Kibo hold an option to become the major shareholder in Billingham and if so are they funding the ongoing costs?
A. The announcement we made in late 2021 indicated that we had signed a conditional term sheet with Kibo for a potential investment into Haverton WTV, the SPV (special purpose vehicle) for the Billingham Project. Since then, the project development strategy and potential has significantly changed. Both Kibo’s and EQTEC’s business priorities have resulted in the parties’ putting on hold any such investment. It remains EQTEC’s intent to sell project SPVs to one or more investors at the earliest possible stage of project development, provided such sale supported the advancement of the project and EQTEC’s interests in it. EQTEC would consider any future proposals in that context.
Forgot to add in Wesleyville - 3MW. A meeting regarding the majority of the financing being paid to Bluemountain electric is due in June some time (total loans from US state department and Carbon tax credits = $32m.
Can’t guarantee that F/C there will happen in June but remain optimistic for that event happening sometime this year.
Hi C9, sorry for the split post… My iPad has been deleting my posts as a write them for some reason so I hit send earlier than intended,,
Also, doesn’t dejavu means a change in the matrix? Think we need one here soon!
Deeside - €5-7m from SPV sale and development service fees + maybe some more revenue if financial close is reached.
Billingham development service fees/SPV sale (Kibo could have £7m cash as early as next week according to their LSE chat)
Southport development service fees/SPV sale?
I mention the three above as JV mentioned at the AGM that all three UK projects are expected to generate revenue in 2022.
Drama (5MW) financial close expected Q3. Could potentially get some development service revenue before F/C.
A French project maybe?
First revenue from the MDC(s)?
"Events which we expect to generate revenue 2H of the year,"
Deja Vu !
Two ways to keep the loan as cheap as possible… Pay it off in cash before the end of June, or
Withdraw the full amount and repay it on time over the full term. That’s because the first instalment included a 2.5% fee on the full £10m amount.
First instalment was £4.75m, second would be the full £5m and no additional drawdown fee.
Let’s see what triggers could see Eqtec generate the revenue to repay it fast and outright, otherwise the first repayment isn’t due until august 31st..
Funding still to be secured for remaining project stages of 5MW Karlovac, worth around €13-14m to Eqtec
This could well come from the proposed Metal NRG brokered equity investor offering between £20-40m of project investment over the next few years.
Financial close of Star 1 (1MW) due any month now.
Events which we expect to generate revenue 2H of the year,
"Ignore the share price,"
Very difficult to ignore the share price when the company has exposed us to the shadow of impending equity raise in order to pay off the loan repayment, a dilution that now would appear to be much more dilutive as it would have been if the company had simply placed at the end of march at around 1p
"What odds on the first debt repayment being settled with equity ?"
Absolutely guaranteed, but we wait to be amazed !
A drop from 2.8p to 0.6p doesn't do anything for the confidence (Amati obviously concerned)
Unfortunately the company only seems to have bad news to release at the moment, and we can expect any announcement regarding Deeside to be in the same vain, so we hope that the market has already factored in a further delay with that.
If you liked it at 0.8p you have to love it at .....
I will buy more
Certainly painful to watch the full circle play out of 0.4p to 3p and back to 0.4p ?.......especially if Amati continue to ease out of their position.
Riverfort will also not want to be exposed to any equity so we have no idea what sort of hedging they are up to in the background.
Perhaps we can draw down the 2nd 5m tranche to repay the first 5m.....get some sort of ponzi scheme up and running !
What odds on the first debt repayment being settled with equity ?
Ignore the share price, it is not reflective of the company, the technology, the potential, or of new energy, it is reflective of global events. Many stocks are down at the moment but when things are more stable everything will go back up again. As I said elsewhere recently, these are great times to be a buyer, not a seller.
0.65p trade at 8:15 this morning is the lowest point for 12 months
Makes the 1.88p-3.00p performance benchmark price from the recent loan look rather whimsical at the moment, silver lining is we wont have to pay any performance fees !!
All but the share price it would appear at present.