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Some sizable buys, thats why the bid has followed the offer so closely today
Didn't notice that the 50p spread is tighter than normal its usually 1-2p. Must be as the volume is higher lots of trades going on and good liquidity. Hopefully bodes well for a break to the upside as opposed to the downside.
Some bigger single trades pushing through. Not seen the spread so tight before. Question is does this break to the upside or downside..
Not really sure don't particularly understand most of the RNS forms but seems like goldman have disclosed a few trades due to connections with madison in line with take over rules.
Had some good volume yesterday over 2 million shares hopefully the same will continue.
Good to see today's rise, but can anyone explain what Maddison Dearborn have been doing with the various 8.2/3 disclosures over the past few days please?
On there own should drive the SP higher. I see no TO premium within the current SP
Good start back after Easter break nice to see indeed maybe offer incoming soon
The first trading day after Easter sees a positive start with good volumes and increasing share price. There is bound to be a few traders in the market for shares in the next few days. Expect to see some volatility in the lead up to the results. Enjoy the ride.
Positive news flow from Investors Chronicle as a buy rating and well publicised as a fair price at £1.75p with a 45% uptick.
Only a couple of weeks for a decision on takeover and hopefully not an extension…
GLA
Hit 119p a few times today. Seems like volume has stayed up as well. Maybe some buying before Easter to get in and use up ISA limits and any remaining tax benefits.
Some chunky trades being worked through with SP remaining static
MDB were always waiting for the final results,thus April decision.Question is why are so many people selling?Even with two people bidding they obviously think that it won't happen.The whole thing is very unusual.
Think 80-90 on no deal is harsh. The results and continued growth will see the SP bounce back strongly, beyond where we trade today
Share buy back may also be a good use of funds, if no TO
Best risk reward play out there at the mo IMO
I can quite believe the IIs have been sounded out about what sort of offer price they would find acceptable.
It could be some are trimming in case it does not work out; they might have a nice profit and want to crystallize that but keep some in should the deal go ahead. They might want funds to buy back later if it does not work out.
I can readily believe a deal might not be much above 160p; from this level guessing many will support it.
It is certainly in MDPs interests for the SP not to climb towards a likely offer price for obvious reasons.
I can't believe the extensions are due to the 2 parties arguing about the price.
Possibly still doing DD (want to see audited results) and maybe it suits them to do a deal in a new FY.
Personally if no deal don't see these dropping under a pound so feel there is more upside potential than downside risk.
I could not give a Flying feck if MDP don't want to pay up as feel there are excellent prospects irrespective particularly with Equals Money Europe starting to contribute.
GLA whatever your position is here; long, short or trying to keep the SP down ;-)
We will know soon enough what the outcome will be.
I small disagree on the medium term outlook. If there is no deal these will get smacked coz all the day traders are long and the MM's will mark these lower than they probably should be 80-90p would be my guess. Problem we have is this will take a long time to recover and I'll tell u why. 2 people have looked at the books for a long while and might decided it isn't worth XYZ. If that's the case why would anyone fancy buying these medium term? It might be a while before we see these at 120p again let alone 130p+. On a positive note, mgt want to sell it, the major share holders want out (hence why it was put up for sale) so they will be doing everything they can to get a sale over the line coz they, like us, know it will take a while for the share price to recover. The 2 buyers are VERY interested. Wouldn't have had so many PUSU's if not. Just a matter of what they are willing to pay
Thanks Zak, I can only surmise that the deal will not get done, but the SP will dip on results day and then rise on the back of good results.
No deal means the current sellers will then turn the books and become net buyers...once PIs have been taken to the cleaners.
One thing for sure, PIs will panic out on a no deal. The IIs that are short will scoop up the stock causing maximum pain before winding the SP back up. IIs are defo going short
If we see the books turn before the results and the SP starts rising for no reason, it could be game on.
101 of market mechanics ....:-)
Zak - interesting, thanks for posting.
Look at the RNS's that have been coming out. Schroders have been selling everyday, Apex sold. Chelverton, Goldmans who are advising MD, have been net sellers EVERY single time they have put out an RNS. Every single time! None of the funds have added. Its very annoying. Only person to add, Interactive Investor and that's all just day traders
Zebbo is right. Its the funds that continue to sell this, not the day traders. Its actually priced in for no TO even though there are two bidders. The mkt is telling us the buyers won't meet Equals expectations which does surprise me considering how well the company is doing. Look at Shift4 in the US Monday. They received multiple offers for the firm and none of them met the companies expectations. There seems to be a big spread between would-be buyers and sellers in this payment sector at the moment
Lets just say I know a man who knows a man. It will either get done at 160p or it won't get done at all.
Zak7795 - thanks for the post but what makes you so sure that 160 is the max. offer price ? Is this figure based on your own calculations ?
The market is not pricing in a TO thats for sure. The SP action / book tells me there are sellers out there who have been taking advantage of the volume. Many times I have been able to buy 100k at the price and only been able to sell 25k, even in the face of constant buying.
Not that this means a TO will not happen and may explain why we are still lowly priced IMHO. No takeover and strong results / outlook should see us a fair bit higher anyway
Equals want at least 160p for the firm (trust me on this) and on the basis the PUSU has been extended so many times tells me they are arguing over the price so the price Madison are offering isn't 160p as yet. I have a feeling 160p is the best we'll get
That’s a very interesting article from the IC. We will now get to see how serious Madison Dearborn are. It always helps to have two interested parties vying for a share. I’m surprised there has not been more interest from the Banking Sector, it’s a cheap way of buying into the technology. Looking forward to a bidding war.