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Hi Londoner - we live and always have in an imperfect world. i just threw JB in because he does talk a lot of common sense but like us he cannot control or predict the variables. I also thought I'd use him to counter the whingeing. I'm as impatient as the next person but nothing happens overnight. Shale looks like it's here to stay but has got a bit carried away with itself. The gung-ho early days have been left behind and everybody is more cautious. Basically, they've stopped throwing money at it and are going for consolidation.
I'm quite happy with the EnQuest approach and await the recalibration and promotion at CMD Thursday week. I came across this which surprised me a little:
"Meanwhile, Delek remains in talks with investors regarding its plans to float Ithaca on the London Stock Exchange."
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/211790/deleks-ithaca-completes-chevron-north-sea-deal/
*In May 2015 JB and AB had a bet that oil would be back $80. Not sure what side he was on but it does confirm what you wrote. Neither are stupid but that's markets and cycles for you.
romaron, no doubt Jim knew his stuff!
Fracking will not happen in the UK.
Cost of energy to extract energy ….
Shale production / well falls off rapidly
Shale equity holders will not make money
and some stuff he didn't see, 'Eagle Ford is the poster child'. Guess he didn't see the Permian coming.
My point is that you can be very smart and knowledgeable and still make duff investment predictions. It's a while since I saw the full video but as I recall Jim did not anticipate the volume of US shale production or its impact on world markets.
Hence I take current 'knowledgeable' forecasts on the demise of US shale with some skepticism. As an investor in conventional oil I hope for the best but plan for the worst.- or at least tune my spreadsheets accordingly. ;-)
"Dont you think he's beeing bit ironic with lottery tickets?" - of course he is. They sometimes win.
In the same video he also says that dividends mean growth has ended. He also says that the ideal percentage of a field is 80% plus because then you win all the votes. I think 70.50 % ain't bad either.
I'm happy to take the view of HMH and a few others in that the progress of EnQuest makes an investment case that is undeniable. Let the numbers do the talking. Our frustration at the EnQuest price is shared by the management. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" John Maynard Keynes. We are moving out of our 'irrational' phase.
Be Lucky
Hello Romaron
Yeah, I know you posted this video before.
Dont you think he's beeing bit ironic with lottery tickets?
I am not asking for US valuation because that would be maybe 5 times more then today already.
Also not asking for Enq to over promise.
We aren't asking the company to over promise anything but it would be nice to know its been fixed after the bashing we've had over it ! Why do we need to wait for Cairn to update the market ?
No news is good news unless its stocks of course.
Fear has been the driver of the share price for the past 5 years, its about time greed took over
No Pelle, you are missing the point. Fashions and trends make little sense at times and if EnQuest is passé then no amount of window dressing will help. I take you back to a previous Chairman, Jim Buckee, who also couldn't understand the EnQuest share price and said that unlike US shares which correlate to reserves and production per share in the UK this is not true and shares are more like lottery tickets because EnQuest should be worth a lot more https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdjTi-uhoqI listen from 8.40 in. As true now as it was in 2013.
Actions can speak a thousand words and the AB Foundation buying is significant. Why over promise? In the real world sh*t happens and you can look a fool (Thistle, SVT , FPSO heat problems etc.)
The company isn't an AIM stock where management often have a life style paid for by investors. The collapse of oil coinciding with huge Capex requirements for the FPSO required the best management and we survived and are growing again. We aren't a BP that can just shrug off major events.
*good to have an oil man again as Chairman. Jock Lennox was an accountant.
Build it and they will come.
Romaron like to call me a troll, When do trolls post the number of shares or the value of each of my buy's before the button is pressed ? I've done this for the last couple of years, its all there in my history for you to see. Most of the time the price crashed just after I bought, annoyed me badly..... Anyway my average is a lot lower than it was this time last year due to AB pushing the price down. Also took my full ISA allowance this year with Enq stock
If its good enough for him then its good enough for me.
Hi Romaron
I think your missing my point, I believe there is a complete disconnection between how market view Enq through AB's guidance so far this year and AB's personal view and knowledge.
All we can see is that he is buying shares every week.
For example in H1 report (sept) he re-stated full year guidance 63k-70k when we had 68,5k for H1.
Does it mean H2 can be as lowest 63k or as low as 57,5k?
I think most here is convinced we doing much better then that by now.
Maybe 70-80k Sept forward
Debt / EBITDA guidance
March/May, AB said below 2 full year
June, actual was 1,8
Sept, re-guidance of below 2 full year. ( This sounds like no debt reduction in H2)
I guess estimates here on forum range between 1,3-1,6. and debt reduction 100-300 mill.
And in my view its CEO task to keep markets informed about in what direction we heading in a balanced way.
Some companies even do a RNS with reversed profit warning if market is to pessimistic.
If now prod and debt reduction is anywhere near what we believe here and AB change guidance next week I think we can easy go up 50% over next weeks.
And yes I am shareholder since several years, if SP heading in right direction until May I intend to come and join the AGM.
I dont have any agreement or support with KO, guess we just share bit frustration as longtime shareholders.
Witch I think KO is, he even been in contact with IR several times and posted updates here and me too.
As I said, we all different personality and views but in the same boat.
Lets see what we get next week, I am optimistic!
Guess you knew it already:-)
Poxy phone " Every other word "
Well, well Romaron, You certainly do love to patronise people on this BB, makes you sound much more educated than some of us or so you think. In actual fact your posts are nothing but pure drivel and bring nothing to the table worth discussing. Its like reading Little Red riding hood to my 3 year old but someone's re written it using thesaurus for every other world.
Instead of thinking your a cut above the rest of us, take everyone as they are or just ignore them including me.
We are on the same side remember.
Hi Pelle - .08.01, I don't know if those questions are rhetorical or not but I will answer them even though they are relatively facile. EnQuest isn't a one trick pony but Kraken is a large part of their production. The field appraisal proved its and the problem was the FPSO. It possibly resulted in Richard Hall leaving. We did survive poor performance as the FPSO was bedded in but that is not unusual on big projects (Crossrail, Heathrow Terminal 5, Sirius mine). A fail in the Kraken field would affect us negatively but that is becoming more remote as the field and FPSO becomes better understood.
I'm not an accountant so I'm surprised at your second question. For what its worth I'd go for 5. Certainty always brings a reward.
Re your 9.22. I have filtered 'no show, KO' for some time and must have missed your support or agreement with him. You are enthusiastic about EnQuest but I don't have you down as a whinger every time the price moves down a fraction. LTHs have had to be patient and I don't know many people who enjoy waiting. I also believe you are a shareholder. Trolls come in all shapes and sizes. Nobody has to read my posts and I highly recommend the filter function if they upset anybody. I only filter if the posters are puerile, predictable or add nothing to the discussion.
Hi KO
We just different everyone here, age,personality,country,background, finacially. Everything.
This we need respect and there was no need have a "dig" on you personally or anyone unless your name is Neil or members.
I said same things many times, and our response to Romaron were identical view of things.
Lets now hope for good update next week!
Agree beerbull.!!
Romaron is a strange fella, I used to read his posts on other BB's and they are written in exactly the same manner, Always finishes his post with 'Build it and they will come' he has a little fettish with AGM's as well. Maybe he just likes to sit in a room with analysts hoping they rub off on him a little.
Maybe its just an age thing ! lol
Maybe he was my old headmaster - Loved giving the naughty kids a good Cane-ing
Good morning Romaron
I know we dont share view of everything, but thats why we here and I have more points I would like to add.
Do you think its more likely Enq go bad financially and go bankrupt if they at some point during last 6 months made an RNS about Kraken performance?
On a finacial scale 1 to 5 how well will Enq perform with current oil prices over next years?
In my opinion
AB's view since 1-12 months:( 5 )we will accelerate debt repayments, big FCF, we home safe, I am buying as much as I can.
Banks/analysts: (1) Finacial problems, huge debt , no light in the tunnel but they managed hang around another year. no change. If you want to place your money in oil there several better companies. Poor H2 guidance.
What you discribed below was the reversed situation, what me and maybe few other logterm shareholders ask for is balanced view.
Probably many shareholders is still today worried if they will loose all their money soon.
Lets see what we get next week.
I am placing my bets on a bit changed AB
Absolutely Kraken, Pelle, you don’t need to be a genius to keep the market upto speed with developments, just communication skills. Personally I think genius is an overused expression, but like iconic! As an aside I’d heard AB likened to a souk trader, genius didn’t enter the conversation, this from someone who knew him on a professional basis. To much hyperbole here me thinks.
Hi Romaron,
I would say balance is always best.
During this year or last 6 months we been on the other side of scale what you descride below.
We build Kraken during 5 years or so and 2 years underperformance and during last 6 months it basically works perfect.
I think few out there knows this and what significant lift that is for Enq.
Magnus deal / RI was also a significant lift but even we had problems to understand it exactly in start.
Imagine shareholders been through this and maybe lost 75% and sell out now thinking its best to save the little that is left.
Banks/analyst all say sell sell basically.
AB is probably genius and looking back what we been through last years its excellent that we are where we are today.
But he is not perfect always in every way.
Romaron having another dig at me I see ! Tight lipped and zero info to the market has basically got us into the mess we are now (un investable) from a II point of view. Every analyst coving Us Tell the same story, likely to miss our financial obligations. What else can they say if they don’t know what actually going on ! What’s wrong with posting a RNS telling the market that upgrades to Kraken ha e been a success? As it’s this asset that could make or break us. It would have been nice to know what the company is aiming towards over the next 5 years, just paying down the debt doesn’t cut it for me, doesn’t help me out as a investors does it ! It’s not good enough and I hope it changes after the CMD. If our world class asset is producing at plateau rates I want to know. We shouldn’t have to wait 3 month for the data to be posted online. I don’t want to be invested with a element of Doubt in my mind. I would much rather more frequent info posted to at least stop the element of fear creeping in.
We need the market to look at Enq as a successful growing company and not some debt ridden company on death row.
Enq is a great company and so is AB and I want the market to agree. It damn well should by now
I can't be exact but it was either May 2016 or May 2017 and I'd met a fellow investor at the EnQuest AGM. We'd both suffered from being in Xcite Energy which is where we knew each other from. We had a drink after and he tried to get me interested in another stock that sounded a lot of fun. It was an Oil E & P company and the investors in it were evangelical almost in their support for it. So much so that they even visited sites in Morocco and had a lot of boozy fun. Almost like following a successful football team. The CEO was approachable, open and fun to be with. He joined the parties. On top of that he kept the investors in touch with regular updates. Exactly the type of CEO that some here, like 'no show, KO' think we need. I followed the company for a while but lost interest and it did outperform EnQuest for a time.
That company is Sound Energy. The investors are now screaming for an EGM to oust the CEO. I think I'll stick with professional and boring.