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Hi Pelle. Well then we are quite close for q2. Lets See. Agreed it was poor with the hedging. Something to raise at the agm. The person in charge should be sent home
March I get basically +-0 FCF
Q2 assuming 20 oil I get minus 87 mill FCF
Q3-Q4 20 oil with further reduced opex/capex minus 70 mill FCF
Bonds will capatilizes so it so thats approx 70 mill less effect on cash on hand per year.
Its really unlucky timing that before last two oil prices crashes they have taken out the smallest hedges.
Atleast they could have got it it right 1 time.
I still think US/OPEC+ and maybe some others in Q2.
Or something else unexpected to happen
And hopefully corona situation easy of in Europe in 1-2 months
Agree squif and can I say a big thanks for your well balanced and informative post lately...much appreciate !!
And as they say ...‘Owe a million is your problem, owe a billion is the banks problem’
Stay safe all!!!
Agreed romaron. I believe that everyone is assuming a cataclysmic scenario. The world Will get back to work and as you write the lenders Will be supportive of healthy businesses. Enquest is healthy with an overall ebitda:net debt of < 1.5. In the us shale Patch this is over 5. In some parts of the world such as us and Canada barrels of oil are fetching less than $5 at this point in time. Chad is paying sovereign debt with Cattle - there is a world of pain and according to my calcs enquest has approximately 290m at present after using all 65 hedges. Most capex is frontloaded (Magnus is Done and kraken ongoing).
If needed the SFA will be extended with payment holidays. Do your sums and use PIK for SFA repayments. Last night Trump was using Boeing as an example. He said that Boeing is 1% of US GDP (warning: his figures) but without planes the hotel and tourist business dies. In turn It affects millions and millions of jobs. Planes will fly again. Everybody is in the same boat and criteria will be relaxed or extended unless the company is beyond help.
p.s. does anybody know where I can buy a cheap ox and cart?
Difficult to See in detail but for example at june 30 they had cash available of 248m and in the balance sheet there was 180m cash and cash equivalents and 20m of financial instruments so i would say all but 50m is cash on the ready. I assume this has been improved by about 20m since end of feb through the hedges in place.
Hi Pelle - yes Will Do so and please Do your stress test as well.
Can you please look into your understanding of the 268 mill cash on hand. Think some parts associated with OZ and Magnus shared interest.
I go play badminton now but will check later also and stress test you stress test
Thanks Therapist. Kudos to you too! I spend a lot of time crunching numbers which I am sure JS and AB are doing on a daily basis. Naturally disappointing that the $65 hedges are for Q1 only but maybe AB has cut a deal. Not sure what motivated that decision however I was thinking it may not turn out to be too bad. Q2 is going to be ugly and that was looking that way end of last year even before Corona as many warned of a supply overhang. Now it looks like many won't be able to even sell their products. There are warnings of Brent hitting $10 but if we assume an average of $20 then that is a $18 per barrel cash loss @60k boepd over 91 days = $100M. I also assumed that during March Enquest has used 1/3 of their $65 hedges and with Brent averaging $35 and @60K gives a fcf of +$23.4. Obviously the truth is somewhere around these numbers but the net effect is a cash loss of $77M. Given that cash on hand was $268M Enquest will have somewhere around $200M cash available.
Now if there is one thing I have learnt over the years with Enquest AB will not let this company fall over. He has too much financially and personally invested and I guess in the end that is why I invested. He will not forward sell oil but he could still do a deal with the Enquest Producer FPSO. It must be worth something. Personally I believe by July things will start up again and we will definitely see the bigger players do something. Prices will need to be over $40 again. It is necessary to do these stress tests. Of course we could put the Brent average at $15 and that would mean an additional 28M cash loss but I just can't see that being sustainable. Many will have to stop producing and the market will balance. What is then the value of hedges but of course they may be settled at a financial gain.
All told Enquest would have cash on hand of $200M and $425M remaining on the SFA (however I believe that is now at $360M) and 15 months remaining to pay that off. At 58K boepd and a be of $38 (although that may be $35 next year) that requires $28M per month with 435M remaining fcf and an average Brent of $54. I still think this is doable and as others have written the lenders would not close if Enquest came up a little short.
What is interesting was that we first speculated that this could last until year end however with this violent sell-off I find it hard to see that there would not be a sharp rebound in Q3. This is the quarter of pain and in my opinion Enquest has the financial resources to survive.
Hi L7 - I realised you were joshing but it made me aware that others might get the wrong end of the stick. Some are infrequent readers and may never post and I'd never want to trivialise their concerns or fears over the virus. Their personal situations could be dire and a loved one close to death. I am not a callous individual nor do I seek confrontation but some post with a confidence that is belied by their ignorance or lack of experience; they usually go straight to Filter. The post by Nick about Sweden 22.46 is quite illuminating and as they say, "life goes on." Most here post with considered opinion and have skills that I do not possess. That's why I'm here and if I can contribute in return then why not. I have made it quite clear that I am a LTH and am not completely anonymous or have an agenda other than to see EnQuest succeed.
Therapist - I think the narrative that certain individuals brought and some still bring to this board is unhelpful and frankly a waste of time. This is an unprecedented financial meltdown and all concentration should be on beating the virus. Nothing can be done until it shows we are winning. I agree with your summing up. You missed hitman who has a pragmatic approach and doesn't always write what I want to hear but I know he is genuine.
I mentioned 3 doctor friends of my daughter. One is Greek/Italian. One is Maltese/Jewish. One is of Indian heritage. How lucky she is and we are to have such resourceful and committed individuals on our side and if nothing else this illustrates that we are all in this together. The virus doesn't care whether you're long or short, what religion you are or your ethnicity. I don't want us to go lovey-dovey towards each other but I feel the majority here share these sentiments. The priority is the virus and petty squabbles are just plain unnecessary.
Sorry for the sentimentality but I'm a bit down anyway. We lost our 14 year old Yorkie "Bubbles" on Sunday and it broke our hearts.
I have a notion that this is possibly a community even if it is made up of mostly objectionable agenda driven b^^stards. The following is not conclusive but: Romaron, your current social reportage is appreciated and hits home, Spindok look after you and yours, Pelle watch the D word, GKB watch the D word, Chilting stay marine wary, Squif and Epiphany keep on with the insight, monkey be monkey, steelwatch come on over, HMH give us occasional Viking and if i've missed anyone then we won't have a clue if any of us die anyway. Stay safe. It's coming.
As an aside NH has been nominated employee of the week fom the "Comfort Crotch" sales team. Really putting himself out now as a keyworker, he thinks he's selling them but they are all free
L7 not really surprised by that, there's probably only you and a few passing tourists that know what it is, the locals probably think it's some kind of strange, expensive Spanish vinegar and give it a wide berth. Have you checked the Irn-Bru shelves?
Hi romaron, I don't know if your last post was a 'gotcha', but to be clear I was having fun with your earlier post. No offence taken here.
To gbk47's point, no wine supply issues here - whisky maybe. I was in my supermarket on Wednesday and saw that there were only two bottles of my staple Rioja left on the shelf. Not wanting to be badged a hoarder I picked up one leaving the second looking very lonely on the shelf. Today, I went back to the shop and the bottle was still there - having consumed the first, I took the second. I'm not sure what that says about my taste in wines.
This is purely arithmetical not practical answer.
YOY - don't take this the wrong way but are you from Yorkshire or Scotland?
Romaron, one page of Private Eye is larger than a sheet of toilet paper, I would say at least twice as large. You could make 2 sheets from one page x 24 pages = 48 so technically they may be correct.
Hi L7 - You are right to correct me and I would like to apologise to anybody that thinks I may have trivialised what is a very serious disease. The comment I paraphrased was "Those who die may have died from something else in the not too distant future." In the same article it quoted a certain Boris Johnson who said "many of you will lose loved ones before their time" so I'm not the only one being casual with terminology but there is good intent in trying to get the message through by both of us. My source is the current edition of Private Eye which is trusted by fellow journalists and the BBC (p.8).
What really brought it home to me was the news from Italy tonight. 9,134 deaths so far including 46 DOCTORS. These are the true heroes along with nurses and other public servants. I include check-out operators at supermarkets, delivery drivers etc.. who aren't paid a fortune but plough on. My sister works for the NHS and suffers from COPD. They had to force her to isolate but she wants to get back on the front line. My daughters best friend qualified today as a doctor. I hope she has a better survival rate than the young lieutenants in WW1. Another 2 recently qualified male friends of hers didn't hesitate for one minute to volunteer. No bone-spur excuses there. It does make you proud!
*The Private Eye edition is the one with this front page:
48 SHEETS OF
WITH THIS ISSUE
*Which isn't technically correct as they number both side of a page. It should really have read 24 sheets so maybe I have been too trusting of this fine publication.
londoner7(inexile) I'm struggling to keep the glass even half full, the local Supermarket has run out of decent wine, these are certainly the worst of times.
romaron, I’ve done some fact checking on your recent post.
‘Many of those dying would have died anyway of a mixture of age and existing conditions.’ This is a dodgy statement. ‘Many’ – definition, most or majority. But you don’t define a timeline, so one could ague that the statement is superfluous considering your closing statement.
Incidentally, I saw 4.4% as being the chance of a person over 75 dying within one year. (Sorry I don’t have a reference). Even if the population of the Earth, say 9 billion, was replicated a thousand times across the galaxy, then that statistic would point to an infinitesimal small chance of any 75-year-old within the galaxy, seeing out another 100 years. I’ve done the math.
Therefore, I can, for arguments sake, accept your closing statement:
‘Another fact is that we are not immortal and we're all gonna die of something eventually.’
A grime fact to accept, but one reassuring outcome of the current lockdown is that the #30 bus that used to career down (and up) Linlithgow High Street every 15 minutes has been changed to every 30 minutes. Therefore, the chances of my demise by collision with the #30 has been correspondingly reduced.
It's at times like these I urge people to consider their glass half full.
I agree the weak will,die, the strong will survive and more will emerge, just like Companies in the economic world
As I've mentioned my friend's brother was confirmed as having the virus on the 20th. She was with him every day with really no protection but she has been told to go into "quarantine" for 14 days and not move out of her flat. I actually asked her what the difference is between quarantine and isolation and she replied "not much" but I prefer the term quarantine if you've actually spent days in close contact with somebody with the disease. At best she's asymptomatic imo and of course has not been tested. The vast majority are getting better and immunity is building. Many of those dying would have died anyway of a mixture of age and existing conditions. Before anybody jumps on me I have family at risk but those are the facts. Another fact is that we are not immortal and we're all gonna die of something eventually.
While off topic.
I've been exposed to far too much detail on virus epidemiology.
Last night I was reflecting on a discussion around viral load. I wondered if perhaps one way to achieve 'herd immunity' is to adopt an index finger handshake. ;-)
Remember, you heard it here first. I think it's time for my daily exercise session - clearly I'm not handling confinement very well.
Listening to the piece on the BBC I heard a so called 'expert' say that Boris now needs to follow his own advise and remain in isolation for 14 days. The BBC news interviewer didn't correct him.
Clearly, the advise is not clear to some people, including BBC news presenters!!!!!!
Once you show symptoms the isolation period is 7 days.
If a member of your family shows symptoms and you don't then your isolation period is 14 days to take into account the incubation period, whether or not you go on to present symptoms - you may be asymptomatic.
Boris - the consummate slacker.... ;-)