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I'd doubt they'd fiddle with the already too high O&G marginal tax rate of 40%, although that can't be ruled out if the pandemic forces Sunak's hand. We'll know soon.
Hi E - I only googled but it says that upstream oil and gas is 30%. I only commented because I was listening to R4 this morning whilst walking. They are talking of raising the corporation tax from 19 to 25 percent. If they fiddle with that then the likelihood is that they'll fiddle with O&G?
Right. All figures in. Brent oil average for 2021.
L7 64.4
hitman 66.5
Juan 67
Therapist 71.19
romaron 72
E121 75.5
Pelle 85
I cut the top and bottom so the middle 5 average is 70.44 All 7 have a ticket for a bottle of Bollinger; closest wins.
It actually shows we are a conservative bunch imo. It is only a game and the intention was to prove our blindfolded pin sticking could be as accurate as the Reuter's poll. It is a standard bottle (75cl) of Bollinger despite Juan trying to make it a magnum and I did consider making it a miniature if he wins. I was also considering making Pelle eat a pickled sardine buried in my back garden for 10 months along with the champagne for his attempt at gaming the poll. However, I am not a spiteful person and will keep it simple. GLA.
*I think L3Trader is an algorithm
Evening R - yes, about right. 75.5 is what I wrote. Don't think the potential increase in general corporation tax will change the value of Enq's carry-forward losses - O&G profits are taxed at 40% , whilst the general corp tax rate is a lot lower.
Hi romaron,
When did you last see me predicting short term movements in anything? I don't because I'm rubbish at it.
But I'd hate to be the party pooper so I've have a crack. I'll take the market's current price as the average for 2021 but I'll knock off a decimal point for you, $64.4.
Hi E121- from another post you guessed $75 for Brent average 2021. Is that correct?
Only waiting for L7 who is adjusting his bell curve and deciding how many decimal points.
*will an increase in corporation tax on Wednesday give a small filip to the share price. I realise it'll only be temporary but our tax credits will be worth more on a NPV basis. Not massive but might just titillate an accountant.
ZFG
No, I am still investing here and can see a good upside.
Its a bit pointless us all being cheerleaders, objective comment is useful as well - just tell it as we all see it.
We have a few new members of the "R.I.P list" among those that sold out at rock bottom and now is desperate when Enquest is rallying.
So the list for now is "Ammu,Neil,mrc mrc mrc mrc mrc mrc mrc mrc mrc mrc mrc mrc, gkb47 and our latest member chilting. Good work on not seeing this stock becoming a ten-bagger. LOL
!00% sunny solar Jan
No worries chilting ,
5% Swedish, your other 95% is renewables.
Broken down as;
45% - Wind
35% - Gas
10% - Hydrogen
5% - Carbon Capture.
Very good romaron, but it's nothing to Crow about.
chilting - If Corvid turns up we are in trouble. Didn't Hitch**** make a film around it where a woman gets pecked to death in a shower?
Hello Pelle
According to Ancestry DNA, I may be 5% Swedish.
I think that the low oil price has held back development of renewables, so if we did see Brent rising as a result of a supply shortage, that would I think greatly accelerate the adoption of renewables, especially as the oil majors have such a big interest in renewables - basically high returns from oil would fund renewables.
Thanks Chilting, are you Swedish? :-)
The best way to face out oil slowly is through high price.
I also saw an plan of US oil consumption with renewable and Bidens plan.
If I remember correctly it was another 500k oil per day consumption over next 5 years to build renewable.
I would say that Pelle could easily be right at the top end of forecasts providing the danger of Corvid recedes.
But, it is also important to think of the consequences of high oil prices.
We could see a quick resurgence in US shale and other producers such as Venezuela could come back strong, so any high spike could be short lived and maybe 2022 may not be as good as anticipated.
Also, consider the effect on renewables, this sector would also benefit from high oil prices and maybe accelerate their development in much the same way as online shopping has prospered in the last year.
The big beneficiaries of high oil prices could be BP and Shell, who are diversifying into renewables, especially if they have capital to inject into renewables - Enquest would do well to try and get in on the act with carbon capture.
GKB, are you like 95% sure average is below 65?
Just so I get an feeling what odds to put
Hello L3,
Not so easy guess future oil prices, but I believe prices can go to the extreme H2 or next year.
Exactly when and how much remains to see.
Regarding this competition I wanted to separate myself from others. If everyone around the same range its more like roll of a dice.
Think No one predicted container freight prices would triple within months end of last year.
They been nice and stable before
Romaron,
I'm assuming the bollinger prize is the standard Magnum ?
and not the Jeroboam, balthazer or even the giant Nebuchadnezzar Bollinger (15 litres) nearly enough for a lake !
N0 - The standard magnum will be just great ! The question is who will win it ? If romaron wins then it must be a fix ! In cahoots with the market !
Gkb47, thanks for posting your thoughts on Brent price - I owe you a drink when we meet. Either AGM ( I plan to go this year if Boris says that we are allowed) or the 60p party !
All the best
JAN (Joan )
Oh sorry about that.. my alternative was using the UBS $68 in 2H in 2021.. but can amend to $65 average for 2021 if that gives you a bit of room. That's the lowest I can go.. when I look at average prices prior to 2020.. I'm sure we will get close to $70 at times, ....add in the Kraken premium and things look even better once we clear our hedged production for 1H 2021.. I liked the paragraph Pelle mentioned in an article about Enquest FCF and market cap.. we are all thinking the same. Just need to keep on track.
Malaysia : not sure what to make of it. What doesn't make sense is how long it is taking to repair existing issues.. surely we aren't waiting for the insurance claim to be processed before making repairs..
22p by early April 2021, based on another months earnings from today.
Hi Pelle,
If there is no serious money at stake people distort their predictions according to their wishes. Talk is cheap!
Perhaps there is money at stake here (I do not know if there is), but the prices I have seen posted so far suggest to me there is not, unless most posters' forecasting models share some features ... Anyway If you would like another bet with me just please tell me the odds you would like for the prediction you posted, and I will see if I would take it -:)
Your entry to the poll has not been the monthly average for the price of oil since late in 2014. There has been a change in the market structure of the oil market. The supply curve is very different.
Pay attention to next OPEC's meeting on March 4th. MbS, in case he still is the de facto ruler in SA, will decide whether he ignores the report coming out of DC. If he does not, he will instead decide to show the US what he can do to the oil market (up or down). I know the way I am going to approach that meeting with my oil related assets (stocks and warrants on the price of oil), but will not post it here. Good luck.
ATB
p.s.: Useful info:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=A
Oh Cheers hitman,
Right under my $67. Leaves me just a thin layer between you and Therapist.
Never mind . $67 will win it ! , My fag packet is never wrong, unless of course it has anything to do with Eagle.
I'm in at $66.5 average for 2021.
GKB, you want to make L3 bet on below or above 60?
Jan, I didn’t think about intermediate milk like you. Lol
You can only win if prices basically remains flat.
Next week can be fun when we see effects of Texan frost bite.
Checking flight radar also. Last week it seems it picked up guess it’s a lot transports.
It’s not far away from 2019/20
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics
Pelle,
I hope your $85 comes true.
We would all be a lot wealthier.