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Something to keep you amused while looking for North Sea tankers, this one has it's own special escort.
Seems the Iranians kidnapped MT Riah after all. Do the IRGG operate in the North Sea?
Yeah, if that happens I will have my own Jet going to the AGM 2025:-)
I'm looking at about $6 billion+ of free cash flow at 85kboepd/$65 brent 2020-2025.
Returning 7.5% of that to shareholders ($450m) seems unlikely. 50-80% is reasonable comparing the company to the industry.
Nothing makes sense at the moment. We'll just have to let the numbers speak for themself.
Yes, I also see no reason going for high growth. This will become safe, boring and with a huge dividend compared to current market cap of 450 million.
They will easy have given back current market cap in dividends over next 5 years.
I'm in Stockholm!
We'll surely have the cash for a dividend next year. Expecting north of $650m after interest payments of free cash flow which would leave us with about $550m net debt reduction for the year at $65 Brent after leases.
H1 carried costs that will not show up in H2, and the cashflow will likely be greatly enhanced with the higher production numbers we'll encounter.
Dividends will come. I'm seeing north of $1b of free cashflow in 2020 at brent $60 and forward even greater numbers. Assets are solid and our key pieces will not require a lot of investments over the coming decade to maintain the production numbers.
With AB at 168 million shares and a salary of about £1m, shareholder value will be delivered. I guess he's getting some gray hair after the last 5 years of oil prices, so growing the company further at massive risk multiples are likely not in anyone's interest.
Talking about tankers it seems one may have gone missing on the Straits of Hormuz
HMH, yeah it sure will be some journey over next years. Guess AB will surprise us too with some move.
I also hope for dividend next year, even as small as 50 million.
Its better you post here then talking to yourself at Swedish forum:-)
There some great knowledge here to build up over several years.
Where do you live by the way?
I live in Malmö
Totally agree. My forecast may be optimistic, but is based on 75kboepd OGA numbers for May plus the additional ~10kboepd net from Kraken 35 -> 50kboep as of may 21 Cairn update.
I think 85kboepd for FY 2020 is reasonable considering PM8 investment and Magnus programme, and I believe we have somewhere in the range of 80-86kboepd at this time.
My cashflow numbers have been pasted here a couple of times by other members. Will keep on refining the numbers, but it looks really damn good even at 75kboepd and oil $60.
I've seen your posts regarding the calculations as well. I think we'd end up close if we assumed the same input numbers.
Will likely move my posting to here from the swedish forums. Looking forward to the journey! :-)
HMH, yeah the same.
I read your posts on Swedish forum.
And I am your side here looking into future this surely must come good if oil prices stays normal even if I think your production forecast is a bit optimistic.
Big plus with AB’s holding and increasing.
Not often you get a chance buy something so cheap with so many good signals
Tack Pelle! Trevligt att råkas ;-)
Alvheim cycle is about 12 days and 550kbo. Wont need two offloads in 2 days as the FPSO is about the same capacity as Armada Kraken.
So I think they need two tankers as Kraken is burstimg at the seams and they are both pretending to go elsewhere to wrong foot the shorters and de-rampers? Yes that must be it.
If I put a straight edge on my PC Monitor Grena Knutsen is definitely pointing directly at Kraken. I think that is how they do the navigation so that's conclusive. Alvheim can't have them all.
Grena Knutsen is also heading for Alvheim according to AIS.
One must be wrong, but the destination could be other than Kraken. Grena seems to be heading in the the right direction, but to early to say.
Therapist, if I was a betting man I'd have put it on your pick, but sadly the Natalita is now showing ALVHEIM O.F as the destination.
The watch continues.
Thanks romaron. A very interesting insight, which highlights the value in attending AGMs or other events and taking the chance to question the main man (or woman). I find that the Q&A session following a presentation often reveals more interesting stuff than the presentation itself, but the analysists can sometimes be too respectful when a question has been dodged or poorly answered. At a recent event I took the opportunity to ask the BHP chairman if there are any party animals on the board with respect to a point I was making on a history of poor CapEx judgements coming at the top of the commodity cycle. I doubt an analyst would have used those words but my point was received very clearly, and just perhaps he'll reflect on it the next time he wants to write a cheque for $50bn.
I should add that if another company releases information that impacts on EnQuest then he is freed from concerns about any breaches of confidentiality etc. He does respond to questions when they are phrased around other companies and a specific EnQuest comment that releases him from that aspect. I also get the impression that he prefers not to regularly quote/comment on the performance of EnQuest outside of the AGM and half-yearly updates. Don't expect him to start tweeting any time soon; he is the mirror opposite of a David Lenigas.
It was in the QA when he responded to a question (I can't remember the exact question) saying that the estimates produced by posters here are pretty accurate (rule of thumb?)and he added that they need to factor in the 3 week maintenance shutdown which is a simple mathematical calculation. At another AGM he admitted to reading the BBs to prepare for questions at the AGM. I doubt he reads them regularly and certainly didn't find it strange. This is a guy that prepares and understands his brief. He is unusually open in my experience because there is a lot of scrutiny but he has his red lines and won't , for example, release contract details and was relatively circumspect about Cairn. In another AGM he admitted that he would have liked to have said more but he had an obligation to Bumi. It wasn't being evasive as there are constraints and stabdards that apply across the industry. I would say though that it is unusual for him to avoid or wriggle out of answering. He is very bright. I'm left with the feeling that whilst we zero in on Kraken barrelage he has moved on. He is conservative in his projections which isn't what PI's really want but this isn't an AIM stock. He is always talking to the larger shareholders imo. TBF there are always a lot of short term punters on BBs.
*I was once at another oil company AGM that had finished when the CEO (not realising I was there) said to other Directors, "right, lets move on and do the serious stuff". I wasn't offended. AGMs are often full of small shareholders and are procedural. Most of the important stuff has been agreed beforehand and proxy votes wipe out those attending personally.
Hi romaron, could you expand on your comment, "At the last AGM AB commented on the accuracy of tanker watching "
Natalita heading North and in our direction. Not updated but could be?. Sticky Vicky could be Flowy Chloe with a fairwind. Don't think that sentence has been written before. glaxxx
Just waiting for Sticky Vicky to issue a downgrade.
Hi Londoner, I arrived at something similar regarding CNE and in fact 'kitchen sink' was used in an exchange on this BB. It doesn't mean either of us are right but always interesting to have another person's view. The data room reference was the 2018 AGM, not this year's. I held CNE briefly but decided that country's trump companies and the arbitration award might never happen. I wasn't hinting at bid interest but that the sale of the 20 per cent of Kraken has never really been off the table and might be a lot more attractive now. It would change our finances dramatically imo.
Hi romaron, the chess analogy is interesting. AB may be a chess master but in my mind the chess board is floating on the North Sea and pieces are arbitrarily moved by passing storms. Perhaps he doesn't need to win but just outplay his opponents. I don't know the man but you seem to so your comments are encouraging.
Ineos walking away from a £117m deposit on a deal suggests they are very serious - perhaps they identified a better opportunity. Whether that's here or elsewhere I suspect there'll be news in the next year or so, but bid interest has never been a basis for my investments. Let's call it the cherry on the cake.
I've been reviewing Kraken on a number of fronts but held off posting. As a CNE holder I understand your point about the Kraken impairment - in the main my view is that it was part of a 'kitchen sink' exercise to get the SP down ahead of his options, and it worked. Time will tell as to the validity of the impairment, but two elements struck me. One, the financials CNE applied to their impairment lead to a positive read across to ENQ's holding even if the same impairment was applied. And two, it would be remiss of CNE not to assess the logic of building their stake in Kraken from 29.5% to 49.5%, and a first step would be to reduce its valuation in the market. There is the possibility of a large arbitration award later in the year. If successful CNE has stated that their existing plans don't require the cash injection so they would return the bulk of it to shareholders. Perhaps they would look at increasing their stake in Kraken. I'm not clear whether the 2018 AGM you mention was this year or last but I'm assuming this year. I noted in the report issued just a couple of months back a comment that a sale of up to 20% of Kraken was still an option. Again, looking at CNE financials on Kraken even the sale of a 10% stake would do wonders for Enquests financial position.