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"someone wanted it to spread before taking action"
Rumour is (I can't reveal my cabinet source) that incoming flights from China, Iran and Italy were increasing during early March in support of policy 'Herd Immunity'. The policy document was stamped "Cummings - my eyes only!"
A few days later the policy circulation was relaxed to "Cabinet eyes only".
Well we know what happened next.
gkb47. you say, "I still haven't figured out why Lombardy became an epicentre"
Not a focus for me, but I do recall a view from a couple of weeks back that the region is prosperous and has the best regional health care in Italy. As a consequence it has a higher proportion of elderly, with associated care homes. Hence the greater impact of Coronavirus.
But that view is based on susceptibility due to age and adverse health.
Unsurprisingly, Peter Hitchens has a view on current events.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html
These idiots can't organise a ****-up in a brewery, and the king idiot talked about a 10-15 mmbbls/day cut without the US committing to a cut. Weird enough...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/04/oil-set-to-crater-monday-as-opec-meeting-delayed-tensions-flare-between-saudi-arabia-and-russia.html
https://www.di.se/nyheter/konspirationsteoretiker-branner-mobilmaster-i-storbritannien/
GKB, is this something you have insight in?
Burning down 5g antennas because they cause Corona
There several reasons why it got worse there.
They also had champions league match near there and even half the players got infected.
Atalanta won and it was the opposite of social distancing
https://www.google.se/amp/s/time.com/5799586/italy-coronavirus-outbreak/%3famp=true
Hi Londoner,
You write so long it’s hard for my get a grip:-).
It sounds about right what you say.
Your government will be safe as they did what everyone else did except Sweden.
It will be very interesting see these test in next weeks how widely the spread been already.
If volatility in oil prices is too much noise for Enq they should stabilise it with hedging. Specially when we not long ago had 65-70 that would put the company in final stability within 6-9 months.
imho people with pre existing conditions should not be reported the fact that they added covid 19 to the list of rare and NOTIFIABLE is uncalled for
Pelle, it's understandable that scientists would look at the China experience for answers but the political decisions that will need to be made over the coming weeks are huge. I would expect UK politicians to rely on their own data, and measure policy against local behaviours before the lockdown, the response to the lockdown and the relaxations appropriate to the needs of the UK people and economy.
The level of the current lockdown will be debated - too much, not enough, too late, whatever - for weeks, months and years to come. But I don't think the government will face much criticism for current policy decisions because of the unknown nature of the virus and the need to protect the NHS against these unknowns is understood by most.
That is the easy part.
Although the UK lockdown is due for review 12th/13th April, in practice it is under constant review. I hope that a snap decision isn't taken this week to extend it to say the end April, following the US example, but rather consideration is given to data that is now coming in fast.
PHE, a UK health body, has started highly sensitive antibody testing of the population. I'd guess these surveys will assess urban, non-urban and reginal variations. They will have results in days but I don't expect these to be published as they come in. Encouraging or not, the early release of data could undermine current lockdown rules.
The ONS are assessing the number of deaths within England and Wales to determine the extent of the coronavirus impact. The reported Coronavirus deaths are deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. To be clear, those are deaths with COVID not strictly deaths due to COVID. There is an opinion which has been voiced by advisors to government that in large part Coronavirus has brought forward deaths that would have occurred in a relatively short time, creating a temporary surge. The answer to this questions will be largely known within a couple of weeks
The policy decisions taken in response to these assessments and others will be more critically judged as the marginal consequences will be hugely significant.
The OPEC++ discussions - will they, won't they - has no doubt lifted the downward pressure on the oil price, and as posts here point out, significant supply cuts will be implemented, whether agreed or not. The trouble with political fixes is that it delays or suspends the market response which ultimately is needed to approach fixing the problem. It creates too much noise for the likes of Enquest with a wide portfolio of assets to make the right decisions. GKA and The Dons hubs are probably cash flow negative today, but both could support future growth - Eagle, Ythan infill and perhaps most importantly the outcome of the 32nd licencing awards. The announcement of the awards in due this quarter.
There's also this study which suggests the UK gov are being (perhaps reasonably) over cautious.
It'll be interesting to see the antibody test results. I think they start this coming week.
I guess the UK is the first to use antibody tests, otherwise we'd already know which model is correct. Does that sound right?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-half-uk-population-oxford-university-study-finds-a4396721.html
About UK, need translate yourself
https://www.di.se/nyheter/brittisk-coronakritik-malat-in-oss-i-horn/
One Swedish expert said around 1 mill 10% already had it or have it here.
It will reach 50% in end April.
And who believes China only had 80k when US already reach 300k
That's a good find Pelle. I've found a publication on it in the respected BMJ, not a personal blog:
Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
BMJ 2020; 369 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1375 (Published 02 April 2020)
Cite this as: BMJ 2020;369:m1375
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
In an article on the website of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Jefferson and Carl Heneghan, director of the centre and editor of BMJ EBM, write, “There can be little doubt that covid-19 may be far more widely distributed than some may believe. Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
New data from China is now going across the World Health Organization WHO's opinion, which was stated in a February report that coronary disease without symptoms is relatively uncommon and probably not a major cause of the spread of infection.
In the Chinese samples that are now being performed, it turns out that four out of five who tested positive for corona showed no symptoms at all.
In China, sampling is now carried out by persons who enter the country from outside. Since April 1, figures have been published on the number of people tested positive for the coronavirus without showing any symptoms.
As early as the first day, 130 of a total of 166 new cases were tested that tested positive for symptom-free, writes the journal British medical journal, BMJ.
- It is a small sample and more data will be available. But let's say they can be generalized, and even if they are ten percent wrong, this is because the virus is everywhere, says Tom Jefferson, epidemiologist and researcher at the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, to the BMJ.
Tom Jefferson believes that the results are very important and also says it is likely that the virus has circulated longer than previously thought and that a large part of the population has already been exposed. (TT)