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No change this morning - the STS vessel Sapphira is still due to dock at Sullom Voe on Thursday evening.
I guess that means we wont see a hook up until Thursday at the earliest.
It seems that we still have to wait - the STS vessel Sapphira isn't now due to dock at Sullom Voe until Thursday evening.
I guess that means we wont see a hook up until Thursday at the earliest.
Just waiting for HK now - no confirmation as yet.
Yes, we need the IRGC to do a lot more. They've been taking it a bit too easy of late. Go, IRGC - keep up the good work with Brent.
Another prime contender for load 42 has appeared after unloading on Teesside - Heather Knutsen is moored off Aberdeen.
Navion Oslo is on her way to the Triton field.
Chiltling, Pelle. Great.
Guess we will find out in the coming days. :-)
HMH, yeah I see your point but probably they consider this info so small it doesn’t effect anything.
A couple of days delay when still in high point of yearly guidance and an asset that should produce for 25 years.
In big picture this slight delay is nothing.
HMHn
No, you can take that response as 100% correct - Krakenoil always gets a personal response from IR - he has been posting here for many years.
Pelle, Fair enough. I find it sketchy... Our core asset "having a breakdown", and now being back up running like a clockwork is still market driving information.
Should be released via press release or not at all.
HMH, I don’t doubt the info.
I have in the past myself asked questions to IR and got info that you could consider sensitive
Chiltling:
Just one question: Do you base your case for the Kraken delay on the comment from "Krakenoil" regarding Kraken having a breakdown?
I highly doubt the IR department could legally release such information to a single stockholder, as it's likely proprietary and market driving.
If not, why don't we just ask exactly when Kraken is going down for maintenance while we're at it. Would make shipwatching in Q3 easier.
My bet is still on maintenance.
Just one update - Scott Spirit has got a load of crude onboard - despite the fact that she has been moored up for a week or so - so she is heading into WILHELMSHAVEN now - hopefully she will be on her way to Kraken later tomorrow???
L3 - Wrapping up my 2 week holiday and so, posting has been sporadic. It's just Kraken that'll fill ENQs coffers, but Magnus and other little ones too. It's not a one trick pony by any stretch.
L7 - my reference to IR was with L3 asking if IR would answer his/her question. L3 posts their questions to IR here on this board expecting someone else to ask on their behalf. I'm not sure why, as I don't think Ian W bites at all. He'll answer what he can or not. I was encouraging L3 to at least pose questions direct to IR and find out.
The updated deck had a slide with water cut from Kraken and you can see that drop towards the 50% mark for the past few mmbbls produced. It must be to do with DC4 and let's hope that this lasts a while yet.
GLA..the last week has been encouraging and no doubt some new shareholders have been joining the ranks - institutional, hopefully.
E121,
Great to see you posting again.
It was not me speculating about Kraken's delay. Others have posted different possibilities as to why there is a delay. I am sitting comfortably knowing that load #50 will happen before year end :)
May Kraken fill up your pockets E121!
Speculation is the lifeblood of these boards.
Contact IR? No, no, no! It’s way too early for that!
A recent discussion on Kraken fuel reached an impasse so it was time for facts. But who would have thought that it could lead to a fresh discussion on the heating of sea water and crude. Okay, a somewhat specialized subject and with only one specialist (ProdOpt) on board it too has reached an impasse so again time for facts.
The Kraken tanker has been delayed a day or two and already the board is rife with speculation. :-) For my part I wanted to know if the Sapphira had been contracted by Enquest – if a shutdown has been initiated its status would indicate whether it was planned or not. There was an ‘investors presentation’ last week which included a detailed slide on ‘capitalisation and enterprise value’. Clearly a point for discussion. AB has just vested all his outstanding options. The ENQ share price has recently been showing some strength against its peers.
There is a rich vein to suck dry before we introduce facts. The 5th Sept will come round soon enough, when much will become clear, but let’s have some fun in the meantime!
As we expect a shut down I would guess that it is happening right now. Kraken losing 12-15kboepd the day after last offload seems rather unlikely.
Guess the next tanker will be spotted around the 5th of August if that's the case.
No doubt that 'uncertainty' fits right into your glass half empty vision, L3? ;-) Have you asked IR yet - if you don't ask, you'll never know?
chilting and londoner7,
just when kraken was roaring (using MO's words), uncertainty is back. would ENQ IR reply to question about Kraken's shutdown having started?
May Kraken fill up your pockets
londoner
There were two STS transfers last year involving Kraken crude - the first STS transfers at Sullom Voe for many years.
It is possible that Enquest have attracted another company to use the facility but unlikely I think.
chilting, why do you think the Sapphira with a destination Sullon Voe was linked to Kraken when recent transfers have been in Scapa Flow?
There is no sign of any shuttle fleet tankers being available for at least 2 or 3 days and the STS tanker has moored up, so I don't think we will see a hook up until the middle of next week at the earliest.
The scheduled 3 week shutdown was for Q3, so it seems unlikely that that has commenced, also why arrange the STS - so maybe there is a problem.
Kraken storage capacity maxes out at 600kbo, 650kbo at 50kobpd would require precision and no margin of error. Unlikely.
STS receiving tanker is larger than the recent ones. Maybe the next load will be 650k instead of the usual 525-550k, no problems, just a few more days to fill in a larger order. Big Heather Knutsen would be just right ...
Petroatlantic perhaps?
Or maybe we're in planned maintenance already. Oil prices statistically head north during the coming months as refineries ramp up over summer and inventories draw down. Kraken is going down in Q3 from what I recall even though I thought October was the safe bet due to loan repayments.
This time a year would be good after the DC4 increase, as we'd expect about 50kboepd for the rest of the year once it's done.
I'd like Saturday latest (~40kboepd). Tomorrow implies 43kboepd. A bigger drop than that would imply some operational issues.
Let's find out
The market starting to price in another Kraken delay/problem.