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Thanks for the replies guys, ticks another box. Have a great weekend & hopefully onwards & upwards next week.
May I also remind everyone of their partnership with Seapulse and my dream of their massive finds :)
https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/seapulse-forms-exploration-partnership-with-enquest/
Hi Robbie - in your 10.21 you posted "There`s been quite a high turnover of shares over the last year and institutional shareholders are so short termist ". Well these three aren't:
2016 Baillie Gifford 67m
Aberforth 58m
Swedbank 47m
2019 Baillie Gifford 94m
Aberforth 151m
Swedbank 69m
Source: https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=ENQ:LSE
The Directors and Board have a limited impact on the share price but it's always nice to blame somebody. To suggest that they are actively trying to prevent the stock rising is imo puerile. I suggest you listen here from 08.00 - 09.30 to an ex Chairman & industry professional https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdjTi-uhoqI
It doesn't mean I'm not disappointed in the current price but after reading an article from The Telegraph (my post 7 July) and using the sp of 2.4 times current earnings I looked for another share/sector that was as unpopular as oil and decided that tobacco fitted the bill. I forgot the debt to an extent and looked at BATS which I once held and may do so again. I remain a holder.
Ten years of reserves, use 4 of those years to clear the debt and that leaves you quite a chunk of cash coming in to buy another asset or 5 lol or just keep on trousering the huge cash until its run out completely and walk away extremely rich ! Sounds bloody undervalued to me
Beerbull, a 'steal' isn't a quantifiable valuation in my book, but the 10 years of reserves only refers to 2P of 245MMbbls.
Enquest have identified a further 200MMbbls of 2C resource, which they claim is accessible through drilling with existing infrastructure, so expect the 2P number to be maintained or grown over the next few years. The 2019 bonus plan points to a 5-10% growth target in 2P over the next 3 years - that's net of ongoing production.
ProdOpt
That's all very well but it doesn't always turn out that way - take Alma for example - is it realistic to base a companies future on a maybe - new resources from elsewhere are needed.
To work out if Enquest is a steal at the moment with just 10 years of reserves it would be necessary to also speculate how Brent will perform over the same period.
Beerbull, plenty of Resrves and Resources but only 10 years classed as 2P and 2C. This distinction is very important and much misunderstood, like the poster on Hurricane the other day, comparing possible resources to 2P Reserves. For example , on Hurricane perhaps there is a lot of oil there, but the 2P Reserves are only 37 Million. bbls.
What the 10 years means , is that if Enquest drilled no more wells than in the current production plans, and did nothing to improve recovery factors, through facility changes and drilling, basically if they spent no CAPEX, they would run out of oil in 10 years. However as they say, the best place to find oil is in an oil field, and spending CAPEX on facilities and wells, moves oil that Enquest already own, from contengent resources into proven and producable oil.
I’m playing devils advocate here, but with only 10 years of reserves at current production, why is ENQ a steal?
Osaka,
The company is currently grossly undervalued. The directors seem content to let the share price drift back below 20p at which point they pick up shares. The risk here is that of the company being taken private in which case the private investors will be deprived of the opportunity to participate in the highly significant upside potential which others will then benefit from.
Robbie I feel as though you are taking a very simplistic approach. The shares dropped to below 20 because there was no buying pressure. Reason? Kraken performance and debt. Result? Directors and many on this messageboard picked up more bargains. Others meanwhile moaned a lot and others deliberately shorted and then bashed the share. Now? Kraken is performing well and debt is being paid off nicely.
So I'm afraid that's where your theory falls over. When value is demonstrated with evidence, buyers will return and this will fly. That's the fundamentals of supply and demand. I see you have also been touting PMO as a potential takeover target. I guess any company that's grossly undervalued is the target of a predator.
Yes correct 9 major shareholders holding 47% but that also includes AB holdings and BODs !!
So from memory they will need 85% of all shareholders to agree the sale for a compulsory purchase as ithaca did ??
So good luck with that 40p won't cut it in my book so if there going to do it they to do it ASAP.
Otherwise it more expensive as the months goes by and the debt reduces..
I`m sorry but the idea that small shareholders like ourselves could in any way prevent a company like this being taken private in the 40s is somewhat far fetched. The directors seem content to let the share price slip back below 20p when they can pick up a few more. They, of course, would be major beneficiaries of the company being taken private. Currently 9 shareholders hold 47 per cent of the shares. 44p would be a take out at 100% premium and the insiders etc would have a much higher stake in the new entity. I`m afraid that rightly or wrongly this type of company is now deeply unfashionable and I see the risk that many of them could be taken private with the real financial benefits accruing to others rather than the long suffering and largely powerless private investor.
Where do you get the 40p figure from? Wouldn't it be wiser to look at the market cap instead for your prediction/calculation? Yes it could very possibly be bought out... it's highly undervalued. But 40p???? You're having a laugh!!!
As for all the different shares changing hands that you spoke of. Please do share the basis of this assumption.
Hi Robbie
Can you post up the increased instutional top ups through the year please !!
Would love to know how many they hold as we already know AB holdings and that should give us the answer?
Or unless you're just guessing as most people that post know diddly squat..
There`s been quite a high turnover of shares over the last year and institutional shareholders are so short termist that they would love to see their quarterly performance boosted by a take over. I am sorry to say a steal is on the cards and very much in the interests of management who would get a much higher equity stake as parties to taking the company private.
90 % of private investors and institutions selling out at 40p will probably lose money ??
99 % are underwater at 22p so AB trying to sell investors down the river wouldn't be that easy!!
If he wants to do that next year around a quid I'm sure most would settle for that.
After what most have been through here I think they deserve a £ Minimum..
My view is that this company will be taken private before the year end with management being part of the buy out. The shares are trading on a prospect P/E of 2 and management are making no effort to get that message across. Just happy for the price to remain low so that they can hoover up a few more. Many will think a buy out in the 40s is a good deal but the company will have just been stolen from you.