Enquest Share Chat (ENQ)

It occured to me that a good reason to farm down is potential for a more extensive field development. We could end up with 15% of something a lot bigger. From the ES:

"If the Eagle development is successful, there is the potential for a larger field development involving
additional wells and tiebacks. However, this ES will assess the initial Eagle development only; any
further potential extension to the Eagle development will be assessed in a future Environmental
Statement (ES) or ES Addendum."

Hi!

L7,
When I use these numbers I`v got a horrible decline (averaging 12,93% every mounth) and its only reach 4 455 466 barrels.
Its a bit away from 6m.
I put the counting beside the other in "uträkningar"

I know that its just a nerd thing to still count but anyway...

Regards/Kamrat

Hi,

L7,
Thanks' for the link.
It did not take long time for me to blame my calculations caused of wrong numbers.
In my files is that parts overwrite now but still there and I wrote, so no one use it, that its useless and that they shall listen to you.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

About the link: save it if you want to use it anytime.
I go on vacation soon so it will not be updated until I'm back.

Take care.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi Tarmak,
The link to the Eagle ES doc is below. Refer to table 2.4 page 43 for the production profile.

One problem with you calculation I see, apart from the profile, is Enquest's share on OpEx. It will be more than $3.

I did a rough calculation that gives $25-$30m return to Enquest, if it happens, but basically not in my assessments. I operate an 80/20 rule to determine what I focus on..

https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/operations/Downloads/EHE8014_Eagle_Development_ES_Complete_Rev01.pdf

Hi!

Its easy to get Wrong sometimes and in my calculation of E´s part afterwards am I wrong.
Just to do it the easier way I put it in the head of "uträkningar" in my files.
It look`s like Crap in the swedish forum.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

For these who dont want to watch is it only that the Opex/capex part is 15% .

The deal gives in five years (whith 15% decline) an average of c. 21,4m /y to E
Naturally most in the beginning and less later.

Have a nice day

Regards/Kamrat

Thanks for that monkey. I'm actually not that intelligent and don't jump on other's posts because I'm just as likely to post utter rubbish myself. I will criticise stuff if its blatantly wrong or trying to twist the facts when it is an area I know something about . Problem is if its about accounts or viscosity I'm in the shallow end but I only need to get the gist. Another reason was that Eagle seemed small fry and I was more interested in the Malaysian connection. It is easy to get things wrong and some of these names are confusing. I believe AB has something up his sleeve and we have moved up a gear. Maybe it's Bressay but I really fancy Malaysia?

You said that some of the more intelligent posters got it wrong. Did you include Juan?

In auction ( Southbound.

Yeah, switch off today.

This year will be milking of oil bull market.
Utilise those tax credits faster.
Few could imagine 65 usd in Feb, far better then I expected and it will continue.
Yday I was out with friend who also bought Enquest.
My friend had called old colleague who is senior oil sourcing director. And he said it’s likely oil will go to 100 usd by end of this year.

Milking the bull!! :-)

https://youtu.be/dLF725CX4mM

More of the same I think Dodger - rotation in to commodities. 20p ENQ will look very cheap by the end of the year IMHO.

Hi!

As L7, I had eagle as first drilling point.

You have to ask yourselves a question: what`s the catch in this affair?
what´s coming out of this affair will be known later but I'm not think E given it away.

It maybe that GKA is doomed and they take what they can.
In that case they keep 120m and save 120 * 0,15 = 18m in the development.
After that they get an average of 0,946k /d in five years if the decline is 15%.
its just above an average of $15m /y.
Its a lot better than nothing in a stranded field.

There can be be more to come and I see things about parts always go up together.
Its Farina, Malaysia, Hibiscus, Exxon and EP!

Yesterday I bought more...

Regards/Kamrat

Awful sell off in asia. Ftse to open 1% down. You got to wonder what the script is for rest of year.

Yawn, Is it Morning Yet ?
Is that "Background Noise" I here ?
No, its the Wife snoring !
Oh well , golden shower then back to sleep.

Romaron I must say I have been very disappointed with you today,some of the more intelligent posters on here today didn't even know the difference between Eagle,Golden Eagle and a golden shower!!! I expected more ridicule to the said posters with your wit, please try harder gla monkey.build it and some will come some will go but me and others will still be here learning from you all in the background

I would suggest that "end of life" is poor terminology. It moves with the price of oil. At $30 it's terminal for 80 per cent of the NS. At $80 even the zombies have a future. I don't think L3 is a native speaker. I find him difficult to understand.

romaron, I quoted L3Trader who used the term 'end of life'.

The latest Enquest annual report under 'Our Purpose' says the following,

"EnQuest is focused on enhancing hydrocarbon recovery and extending the useful lives of assets in a profitable and
responsible manner,"

That sounds like an 'end of life' strategy to me, unless Enquest plan to sell them on to the fishes.

You've confused me L7 (18.42) "I'm with you on the 'end of life' strategy. It's outlined in the opening pages of their annual report. "
Two things. The report was a year ago and has been overtaken by "events dear boy". I looked at the report and couldn't find the quote?

There is a mention of "maturing assets" but lets ignore the semantics of the phrase. We haven't had the money to develop a new field and neither have most of the other companies in the NS. The majors are moving out so basically every trade is a "used" field. In fact I'd say maturing assets is the every day reality. AB isn't moving away from a strategy. The strategy is moving away from him and he's doing what I want; adapting. All oil fields decline as they age we know and Jeff Currie has been banging on about capital being hard to find for months as has E121 in reference to shale. These aren't new.
Geologists want to explore. CEO's want to spend other people's money. Engineers like to take things to bits. I just want EnQuest to do well.

Build it and they will come.

Mr.C,
I agree with your comments.
When you first came onto the board , some of your posts were not popular and maybe you were tarnished with the same brush as Ammu.
However You have demonstrated that you have a good knowledge of Enquest and the Oil market. You actually talk a lot of sense ! You also see through a lot f the "Smoke".
You have earned my respect.
All the best
JAN

Mrc - they're indeed trying very, very hard. Can they really fight Brent - not for too long.

Hi L3Trader,

Word is, JS has >$700m (+$50m) coming into the coffers. I like the GE package, is the balance spending money or insurance - I hope the former.

I'm with you on the 'end of life' strategy. It's outlined in the opening pages of their annual report. It's a key reason I bought in, timed with an SP savaging on Kraken FPSO issues early 2019 which as an engineer I knew were fixable.

If AB moves away from this strategy I trust he'll tell us. GE is a bit shiny for the likes of us but give it time. When the rust comes through and bits start to fall off AB might want a larger slice.

AB had a plan, which he presented at the CMD late 2019, but he hadn't foreseen Covid. It's a new world. Let the dust settle and no doubt he'll present a fresh one, when I guess Bressay will figure if current expectations play out, and Kraken runs dry ;-)

Therapist gave us a heads up on an approaching Stena Nat, but she's gone dark. If she docked today then yes 13 days. When she reappears we can do the maths.

I don't think the market gives a *******

GKB et al - is the new deramping strategy to bore us all into selling?

This discovery was estimated at 6 million barrels recoverable by Enquest in 2016.

Osaka - the EP theory for marigold is strong. Petrofac have the contract for anasuria and although I don’t know their full relationship with hibiscus they seem to make most of the engineering calls. The petrifaction engineers will be far more familiar with the team (and FPSO) from EP than they would be with any other option. I have been wrong in the past but have a good feeling on this so bought a few more today.

I did wonder about Gadwell and Mallard, flagged them in yellow at the last OGA published update, maybe they've also dropped off a cliff, in which case wouldn't it have made more sense to complete Eagle and tie it back to GKA as an alternative?

Otherwise it may be that they are pulling out of GKA altogether, or on the other hand preserving cash to take over KNOC's share?

https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/south-koreas-knoc-looking-to-sell-north-sea-assets-report/2-1-953466

Anyway they paid $350 m to take an interest in Golden Eagle but didn't want to pay $50 m to develop a (non Golden) Eagle. Maybe their systems can't handle two birds with one stone?

In answer to L3's question, Mr Market agrees with me and is not impressed.

Hi Londonder7,
Thank you for your response.
Yes, the point that caiptal is harder to secure than before was a theme of my post. Nothing wrong on focusing on ROCE or ROI. That is absolutely fine me. What we need is clarity from AB. After all this is a one-person company. There have been market updates and the September20 results calls I still have to listen, but the posts I have read here do not seem to suggest AB has provided a road map with enough detail.

Notwithstanding the above, I still would like to invest in a company that operates end of life fields. I still think there is money to be made there, and more so if the POO will be as high as posters here say it will be. Novak , MbS and the guys with cowboy hats might decide to gift them such mana from heaven for an extended period of time.

There is a literature on measuring stock returns in event studies. I provided a simple calculation to avoid complexity overload on this bb (too many greek letters and math symbols). I can send you some links of how experts have been doing it and improving it over the years at some point. There are successful ways to control for and meaure market liquidity.

I am not up-to-date with the tanker watch. Is AK still operating on a 13 day cycle?
ATB