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it will certainly be an interesting watch this year to see what action is taken - nations will be expected to give ground and make cuts.
Canada - tar oil, - Australia - coal, US - shale oil and gas, China - pollution levels, Brazil - deforestation, Germany - coal use - the list goes on.
Personally, I think that we are all in for a massive shock on Monday and the need to act will be compelling.
Thankfully, the North Sea Oil Industry is, with a push, well placed not just to do its bit, but to actually profit to a considerable extent from the situation because carbon capture will be on the agenda and there will be plenty of big corporations and governments willing to pay to remove carbon and pump it into spent oil wells.
I doubt many fields will be shut down in Iran , Russia or Saudi for that matter while we have demand for oil. And USA and UK will keep our oil independence, from being energy blackmailed.
The only answer is to use expensive oil for plastics and chemicals and find cheap non polluting energy for heating and transport new Fusion plant may do that? absorb the Co2 into sea shells as nature has done in past (Limestone)
We need expensive oil to drive new technology on.
The last climate change report was used as toilet paper by most Nations.
Poor Nations are struggling to feed,educate and give some sort of healthcare to their population.
Money for climate change is well down the list.
Then we have the big world leaders like China and the US. China is not ready to act and the US is in denial.
Only a few European Nations are doing anything worthwhile. I would guess that this report will also go on the toilet roll too .
Come back in 2031 When China may show some interest. Sadly this is one of those situations where we ALL have to cut our grass for the street to look nice.
It will be brace, brace, brace on Monday when the UN Climate Change Report is published - an update on the last one that was published in 2013 - that could go a long way to deciding the long term global future of the oil industry and give much more clarity of where we are heading.
The challenge to North Sea Oil companies is to back up their environmental commitments with action and also make a positive contribution to combatting climate change. If they can do that, then they will thrive while other players around the world are forced to cease production.
They say we've reached peak oil - But the truth is have we even reached peak Coal demand yet ?
The reality is, this period of volatility will pass over too. Covid will continue to create generate periods of volatility for oil prices and that's part of the new normal. What if China or Japan have short bouts of below normal demand - it's not like demand is going away permanently. If you base our investment decisions with an outlook of weeks, rather than months - then you'd probably do what MRC did and sell out. That may well be right in the near - who knows. But look out over the medium to longer term, oil will continue to rally and Enquest will still be well placed.
Still in Jan - just find it amusing hearing Chiltings confident predictions and KOs bum licking.
Brent average should be ok for the next 12-18 months. ENQ strong medium term as I KEEP saying. Will it fall short term? Quite possibly. Do I care? No.
Chilts is clearly in a short term long position at the moment.
Mrc - You've gone from ramping this stock like its a ten bagger within a year and ripping Chilting to bits for the slightest negative post to attacking everyone that still invested, every one of your post are a attempt to push down the SP !
Funny how things change so fast when posters sell out and now in two minds if they've done the right thing.
Its even worst when you sell out and then the Stock rallies.
Getting left behind is a right Bast ard !
Have you bottled it ?
You were talking strong only recently. I cant understand why anyone would sell before H2 results.
Even the brokers/ analysts are saying 33p inbound for ENQ.
It doesn't matter, simply because OPEC+ are managing the oil supply as we move away from Covid - OPEC+ are taking the hit.
Hopefully, Brent bounced off $70 this morning - the Q3 range could now be $70 -$75 - rather better than the $65-$70 I was expecting.
Japan situation worsening
They are poorly vaccinated, old population, and high crude usage. Why does this one not matter Chilts?
The bottom line is that all the variables that the market uses to determine the oil price, including political pressure, are combining to hold the oil price more or less at its current level.
OPEC+ are probably happy to maintain this and political leaders, including Bidden, will do all they can to push it down a bit but the supply situation will win out and limit their power to act.
Have to add I think the last small rise is not to do with oil price. There are a growing number of mid and large gaps going on a runner and I suspect this is joining the pack.
I agree the fall on China is overdone, and the pattern is a classic falling EW5, but the low trend price suppport is about $66 so maybe one more shakey day then back up we go. Oil production reportedly short until mid 2022 so no reason oil should not go back on the rise short term and therefore this should go up as well.
Nick - sellers need to find buyers for that extra 1%. The cost they are willing to pay for it sets the price of all barrels.
It’s basically going to go in storage because the demand elsewhere can’t use it. The market will price this in based on expected excess volumes that might get built up whilst supply exceeds demand.
If the markets in general turn pessimistic then it could fall a lot.
5% drop in Chinese demand is no more than 1% of total world demand. Hardly a major issue unless the situation gets far worse; unlike Australia the Chinese have vaccinated much of their population.
Chilting - they have cut transport links already. The demand is gone. They are estimating 5% drop in demand currently.
Will it get worse? I don’t know.
The article is saying that 2 of the affected areas are major manufacturing centres.
The Chinese had a working vaccine in peoples arms before we did - looking at news reports from China, they are at the stage where they are now moving on to vaccinate children, just like we are in the UK - the Chinese are not stupid, they know what they have to do to stop another major outbreak and as Jan confirms, their vaccine DOES work against the Delta Variant.
So this scare over reduced oil demand from the Chinese as a result of Covid is just a falsehood.
Dont forget that the underlying demand is increasing day by day, year by year, as more and more people get out of poverty! In addition the number of adults in the world increase every year.
Looking outside China, will there be more restrictions elsewhere? Any place where things will rather tren back toward some kind of normality and hence demand increasing?
Maybe true Mrc.
However a few more attacks from Iran. A sunk tanker or two.
Israel strikes Iran's nuclear research labs etc and POO will shoot up. Who knows what's coming next ? Maybe a slap around the back of my head from the wife !
I'm staying INVESTED .
During India’s delta wave there was around a 20% reduction in demand.
I would imagine it will be similar for China, which would equate to 2 million barrels per day surplus for say a month or 2 before recovering.
It’s not immaterial and that is why the POO is falling. I don’t think that is priced in yet either so it will keep falling if things do head down this road.
The Chinese vaccine does work. It is the main vaccine used in Morocco and has stopped mass deaths in the over 50's. Around 60% of adult population been vaccinated.
China can easily ramp up vaccination across rural areas and prob are doing right now.
India seems to be over the worst . Autumn POO will be on a roll !
Grow up KO.
I am still invested, though as I say have taken some off the table for my own sanity.
Short term POO weakness but ENQ is a great business now and will get to 30p whether POO is at $60 or $80.
Might just take a little dip as this latest Covid worry works through and POO stabilises.
Hi Chilts - sorry that doesn’t seem plausible to me. How can demand not be affected by mass lockdowns of millions of people? We need demand to be growing as OPEC add back the barrels. We are probably a couple of months away from a crest of a wave in China.
I’m not convinced we know enough about the Chinese vaccine to say it stops serious disease.
Also remember that the West has a population with much better immunity as we have let it run wild through our populations across 3 waves, only restricting life to keep hospitals from collapse. Even if China have 50% double vaxxed they are still in big trouble.
In the UK there are around 90% of the population with anti bodies from infection or vaccine. I bet it is no more than about 50% in China.