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Therapist, Much appreciated. No volcanoes on the horizon. I follow this page on what can propel the poo:
https://carnegieendowment.org/publications/interactive/protest-tracker
(even Iraq is "peaceful").
gkb47 and Londoner7, sorry for being confusing about Kittiwake and MOL. gkb47, yes loose language on my side, it is decline rates. I assume you group oilfields (e.g., it seems there is a dance b/w Scolty and Crathes (production in one increases, while it decreases in the other, as others have noticed in the past and explained in detail).
londoner7, I thought ENQ had dropped the licence for Avalon. I hope you are onto something w/ the current licensing round and there is black gold lurking around Kittiwake.
Finally, where is E121 with his running commentary on Shale/Rigs/Etc.?
G&R's manifesto revisited: note that OECD stocks increases in June: "Preliminary June data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 24.3 mb, m-o-m, the fourth consecutive monthly rise. At 3,240 mb, they were 301.5 mb higher than the same time one year ago, and 291.2 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose m-o-m by 12.8 mb and 11.5 mb, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 120.3 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 170.9 mb."
The market will pay attention once the stocks move lower than the 3,000 mb barrier. Until then a few bucks up very slowly.
GLA
L3 et al,
A bit busy but here is page you are after. Graphs need tidying and you don't need them every month.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jwb0a320qzv7f13/Enquest%20OGA%20Bopd%20Jan%2020-%20-%20May%2020.bmp?dl=0
Thanks again to all for serious input. Will be very interesting to see next months OGA, September update, future for E Producer , Malaysia progress, Bressay, Sullom Voe and the list goes on.
Still hope this is a stifled volcano about to pop. But not in a ramping way as I would never ever , , , , ,
Sweet dreams my virtual friends (and enemies/prospective clients)
GLAXXX
L3Trader, I also misunderstood your connection with MOL. Yes, S/C routed through Kittiwake. The only development suggested here has been Eagle, so I took your lack of news comment from MOL to be related to Eagle. On Kittiwake, with the S/C production improvement, AB had included this hub within his definition of a low-cost facility -the S/C rework more than doubled production from the hub - so I’d guess still time for further development if the POO plays ball.
I don’t know the detail of other opportunities around either Kittiwake or The Dons, but in their 2015 Capital markets Day Enquest referred to “exploration opportunities in the area” and even supplied a map (slide 20) of “Significant Prospectivity Around GKA”.
https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/statements_reports_presentations_and_general_PDFs/151208CapitalMarketsDay.pdf
I’m assuming Enquest applications under the 32nd license support these comments.
L7, I hope the OGA tells ENQ to restart the pumps at Hather/Thistle. What prospects are enticing in the current round od licensing that would extend the life of Kittiwake, or the Northern Producer? I am not aware of any black gold lurking nearby those platforms.
L7 and Gkb47, Yes I know MOL has nothing to do with Kittiwake, but isn't the Scolty/Crathes oil routed through there? (I thought that may be MOL would indicate they would - with ENQ - do more drilling/in-wells (whatever) at Scolty/Crathes, but they do not mention anything). Incidentally Gkb47's CUBE might tells us the depletion rates? What are they, can I ask?
L7, "but how significant is the variation in Malaysian production with respect to POO?" I looked into this at some point and thought that for very low oil prices ENQ would really get a lot of the pie. So, we might be nicely surprised here...
Where is E121 for the running commentary on the rigs, Frac, and shale producers' results. I assume he has been reducing his holding...
Chilting, Well done. Congratulations on anticipating what happened so well. I wish I had done the same when ENQ was in the high 20s. At least, I have not added anything above 21p since the RI. But having some hundreds of thousand shares keeps me looking for the black gold here...
Krakie: Yes, draws, but POO goes down. The market wanted a larger draw. Iraq continues to talk compliance and do the opposite. Their spokesperson is the new comic of Baghdad... He better hope MBS is not upset!!!
GLA
Hi L3Trader, good to see you back firmly on message.
MOL Group has a share in Scolty/Crathes but I don’t think this extends to the Kittiwake hub – if you know otherwise please share your reference. If so, MOL would not have an interest in any planned works in relation to Kittwake, such as an Eagle tie back – something to watch but not high up on my list of expectations near term, but could be essential to an extension of the Kittwake hub a year or two out. I don’t think anything else in the portfolio helps Kittiwake but the 32nd licensing round might.
Catcher reserves have been upgraded based on exceptional production and due to an infill well due online soon – my interest here in through CNE. An S/C reserves upgrade is possible, but IMO would be small if it came – something else low on my list of expectations.
You ask, “should not ENQ take the long view and smooth out OPEX/bbl over several years when deciding whether to stop production?”
Perhaps they have taken the long view, however, the situation was dire last Spring, and these marginal fields may have been an option they couldn’t afford to carry – hence the decision to decom. There is still oil there – I’ll go with your 2P reduction which will probably be disclosed in next month’s interims – which is something the OGA will take into account in assessing the application to decom. There may yet be a twist, but I’d guess Enquest’s main criteria is the generation of FCF. At least I hope it is!
You say, “share of the Malaysia production will be higher this year because the POO is low, and the Tanjoram field is now history.”
Yes, Tanjoram is now history, and the return of $50m will more than cover the repayment of the Tanjoram loan, but how significant is the variation in Malaysian production with respect to POO?
All,
hitman1a: Thank you for posting your estimates. I am waiting for Therapist to post his production data file to feed into my spreadsheet (if that were that easy). Note that the effects of the hedging up to the end of April already appeared in the May TU. Net debt was at C$1360M. Can it get close to $1100M by ear end? All depends on the poo (assuming no more low ball hedges were put in place). I was using an average POO in Q3 of $48 and $55 in Q4. There are good signs there is upswing pressure on the POO. US companies are withdrawing their reserves in the SPR... Traffic is getting worse in many parts of the globe. The one lagging behind is air travel. Bressay: it is not the easiest of projects. Can the Alma/Galia FPSO be put to use somewhere in the next semester? Perhaps a partnership with some other operator. this FPSO is not prepared to process the heavy oil of Bressay. Too expensive to refit I would suppose? But others know more than I do about this.
Londoner7: I get back to Crathes/Scolty. MOL has just announced results. There is no indication of any work planned here in the next 3 years (unlike at catcher and scott), and there is no indication that reserves were upgraded. But MOL in 2019 increased their 2P reserves in the UK by 3.7MMbls (It might have been related to Catcher or to Crathes/Scolty, but the AR is moot on this matter). I still believe the reserves were or will upgraded, but ENQ's AR also says little. Eagle might make sense in 2022 to keep Kittiwake going? Which other wells/licences could help it keep going so as to extend its life?
Thank you for sharing your calculations on Heather/Thistle. My reading of them is that when production finds obstacles in these old fields, OPEX per bbl shoots up. But should not ENQ take the long view and smooth out OPEX/bbl over several years when deciding whether to stop production? I read somewhere AB saying that decommissioning these fields would reduce 2P reserves by 30MMbls. If true there would still be life left in them. I wonder what criteria they use, and what others who post here think.
Pelle: Yes, you can talk about dividends when the POO 20-day moving average crosses $55. But, you will still be fined (gkb47 keeps the tabs on that) until ENQ starts paying those dividends. I have lost hope on it paying dividends in the next few years, byt happy to be proved wrong.
Modestus: I read the G&R piece. I believe some of their info on the volume of stock increases is slightly inaccurate. OECD stocks increase by close 300MMbbls in April (I believe), so more than what they indicate. Also, OECD stocks have less importance nowadays that non-OECD stocks (hard to measure) are playing a more important role. So, the stocks that do not build in the OECD, end up in non-OECD countries (such as China). This is my only comment about their views. But they have spent more time than I did looking at the issue... I like their neural network model approach to predicting shale production.
GLA