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Hitman you’ve changed your tune of late, kraken has at least 3 years of plateau production before decline takes hold, kraken hasn’t been running at 50k average as confirmed. So decline rates not a factor for this year.
I'd be delighted to see 70K average in 2020 E121.. but i'd be equally happy to see Enquest match 2019 production.
Kraken premium is a real bonus as confirmed by Cairn this morning.. They said the new Kraken wells would be connected at somepoint in 2H 2020. AB said Thistle was expected back in Q2 , so it's hard to see the yearly average going up from today's production rate.... what ever that is.. when you take out Alma and include natural declines..
Interesting Cairn came in at 23k for 2019; (guidance range of 21k-23k) yet are forecasting 19k to 23k for 2020 , slightly lower.. even with Catcher and Kraken.. so why are we underestimating our natural declines.. ?
I have no doubt the 2020 FCF will be substantial which will drive the SP higher..
Hitman - yes, Enquest never said that production in 2020 will be lower than in 2019. Even with Alma ceasing production, slightly improved rate from Kraken/Magnus and with Heather/THistle back in operation soon, I'd suggest that the mid-point in 2020 would be closer to 70k ( a touch under perhaps), versus the 66.5k mid-point guidance for 2019 (63 to 70K range). At that production run-rate and with Brent average of $63 and with a Kraken Brent premium of say 6 bucks over 2020, FCF is circa $550 mill. A no-premium scenario gives me just under $500mill.
We should be in good shape to get net debt under $1 bill, not withstanding a supposed steer from IR that was posted here a few months ago that 'suggested' that FCF will come down by less in 2020 than it did in 2019 - that's B**locks to me.
You are telling lies again or do not have any understanding of oil. Thistle and Heather can comed back on line early in 2020, so litmited oil loss and you conveniently forget to mention that there will be additional wells drilled and therefore the production will go UP.
As for Barclays. What do they know? They had a 15p price target also. Do not use this to proved you are not ignorant.
You pretend you know about oil but are just making things up all the time and guessing.
Why do you believe what poster said that IR said to them? You are not very clever to say this.
We have been over this many times.. IR already confirmed to a poster that 2020 production would be slightly less than 2019.. Heather and Thistle out of action. and natural declines..
Still holding.. not sold . been accumulating for almost 5 years.. Ps : Barclays and JP Morgan also have a 40p price target at the moment..
Perhaps pencil in 65k average production for 2020 (slightly less than 2019) I thought the company had already indicated it might be slightly less.
Net debt near $1.1b year ended 31 Dec 2020 is a good enough target imv, with Kraken premium helping it get there.
Sp: ? above 40p
Krakenoil,
I assume that is "net debt".
This is spreadsheet logic rather than financial knowhow.
$1.45 billion end 2019 closer to $.9 billion end 2020 (2020 production circa 71800BOEPD).
Look at me and my maths.
GLAXXX
Therapist where do you see net net at end of 2019 ?
Evening L3 et al,
Gas link for L3. I now have Malaysia at 5% gas inforned by the regional income and oil gas split in the FY18 report.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/lfnlhz8v9hub15b/Enq.Prod.%20Data%20Jan%2019%20-Oct%2019%20-%20Gas%20BOEPD%20Graphs%20and%20Data.pdf?dl=0
I remember the confusion at the Nov 19 Update with regard BOEPD totals. Someone mentioned IR having mentioned a Magnus correction updated in Enquest figures but evidently not OGA. Read a bit of a report explaining unreliability of OGA but is also one of our best sources of data.
Anyhow, looking at the Cairn FY19 Kraken BOEPD figure, that leaves my predicted Kraken producing over 47500boepd for Nov and Dec which is a bit of an ask so I wonder if there has been Kraken data changes also earlier in the year.
My financial model is now mega improved even having decimal points and currencies in the right place!! It's a learning curve. Looking at income I struggle to get to the HY19 £858,000,000 without some additional barrels or a premium to Brent average. With those added I volunteer FY19 $1,646,729,000 income, production 67,070 BOEPD.
GLAXXX
I hope we can hold 29p today but its looking unlikely. Let the profiteers move out and the fresh blood move in.
L3, maybe your making wrong conclusion about SP re-rate.
It might very well be because my estimates on cash allocations for 2021 or possibly H2 2020 looks more and more likely:-)
What’s your prod and FCF estimates for this year now?
Gd morning all,
I expect CNE to say that Kraken 2019FY production was above guidance, so above 35Kboepd. I expect it to be 35.6Kboepd.
Guidance for 2020 will be between 36K and 40K boepd.
Kraken premium: Like E121 and others I expect this to be in the high single digits. Suppose it was $10/bbl. Given
Enq's WI and the upper range of the 2020 guidance above, that would lead to an extra $100M in FCF accruing to ENQ.
Not bad at all.
I am not expecting CNE to reverse its decision on lowering Kraken's reserves for now. They will want to see at least another
semester, of good production. We have to bear in mind that in relation to Kraken's FDP production in the first two and
half years of production was lower by more than 10MMbbls. And that gap was what originated the reserve writedown.
In December, there were some post about cash available and net debt.
Let me add to that conversation, as upon reading it I felt that the TU had some relevant info.
At 31 October 2019, net debt was reduced to $1,561 million (30 June 2019: $1,638 million) with cash and available bank
facilities amounting to $213 million (30 June 2019: $248.5 million)
Net debt Cash and available bank facilities
$1637.9M $248.5M
$1561M $213M
(so cash holdings decreased $35M)
$77m net debt reduction + 35 (reduction in cash and available bank facilities) = 112
Paying down of RCF from 30June until 30 October was $10M+$35M+$45M = $90M
To whom were the other $22M cash paid? About $12M was to BP for the ret of the 25% BP vendor loan. The $10M could have gone to anyone, from Working capital movements to
the Oz loan, etc...
SP: 15 p in March 2019. Will it be 51p in march 2020? Mr&Ms. Market are very moody...
p.s.: Pelle, the increase in the SP shows you do not need ... for it to go up. Keep adding to those fines. Gkb47 and I will come to collect them.
p.s.: Londoner7 and Therapist. In my previous post I had a question for each of you about October production. If you could answer that would be great. If not, I understand. Minutiae on my side.
p.s.: Gkb47: the 75th load time target needs to take into account that one of the recent loads was a half load (or less), so we will have to take that into account :)