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Todays bounce back is very welcome - lets hope something concrete comes out of OPEC+ and the US and that this is the first step back.
Tom
Please don't think that we are deramping Enquest we are simply facing the reality of the current situation and looking at the most likely way forward.
I'm not suggesting ENQ will go bust and I sincerely hope they don't - I have been long ENQ for many years although dearly wish I'd sold when they went up towards 30 but hey ho
But this is not a 3 month problem - 18 possibly
IF PEOPLE are worried about The debt in oct sell in sept .
But Enquest don't have any debt payments this year, much cash available, lower break even.
I don't believe in this covenant problem in October. Usual fake deramping rubbish. And anyways the banks will forgive it like they did last time.
When oil price is high in a years time we will have 70 thousand barrels a day. Soo much cash generated.
Tom - I'm sorry but this is not a 3 month issue - I fear the recession that rages after this will last a lot lot longer.
I spoke to my colleague in China this morning, they are trying to get back to normal but she said already they are seeing signs that demand from Europe and America is collapsing
Tom
Like I said - one step at a time - first step Brent back to $38 - Enquest can cover its costs - hedging is doing that job at the moment but that won't last forever.
We do have J&J making a vaccine, I’ve been told they never spend money , so the fact they are committing so much money assured me that it will get done , I understand it’s a joint venture with US and will be provided at cost ,
The biggest problem is time , How do OPEC + countries fund themselves over 18mths , with only a partial reopening of the economy ... higher prices near $50 make it much easier with a global coordinated effort which probably has to last 2 years .
Chilting
The market seems to disagree with you
Why is it worth over £150 million if things are as bad as you say? If the market believed there is no future the value would be 1p like the bank said it should be?
Tom
Enquest doesn't have a future with Brent at these levels.
The country and the world is already in recession as a result of corvid.
Oil demand is at an all time low.
You have to face facts.
gkb
We have to take this one step at a time - Brent back to $38 Enquest breakeven has to be the first target - hopefully by June when the corvid virus effects begin to recede.
GKB, you would have been kicking yourself in a few years if you had sold at 30p. 30p will be as nothing.
Potential for 10 bags here at least. So cheap, and for no reason other than a very short term demand drop.
Chinese are already back to work. It's a 3 month blip. No problem here. Gov needs to get everyone out of lockdown ASAP and back to work. Otherwise the economy will falter.
I don't know anyone who has had it let alone died. The numbers look very suspicious to me.
I am not sure that is correct Tom - gkb is a realist - this is going to be a long haul.
Thank you for your analysis Chilting. I've just been paid today so I've added some more Enquest shares. If you are right I will do very nice indeed :)
GKB was soeing some doubts but I can see his game.
10 p here we come!
The point is gkb that Putin cannot be seen to backdown - that is not the Russian way.
All the backing down will be done by KSA - Russia will be the victors.
The outcome will be the same - cuts by all - lets just hope Brent rises at least towards Enquest break even - that might be a tough ask.
Makes me laugh how certain long term rampers turn into desperate derampers once they bottled it and sold out at the bottom.
GKB, its the Christmas Goat in Gävle.
Almost every year someone put its on fire illegal, however you can see it survived 3 years in a row now.
Last time 2005/06 it survived two years oil went into supercycle 150 usd.
So you can imagine the future now
https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%A4vlebocken
GKB, let’s hope in few weeks you can chase the goats out of city and fill up the car
A deal would be useful for the future thou, when poo will go up and shale will restart.