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Many years ago I intended to move to Florida, the US banks were incredible in their willingness to loan money for my business , the difference to the banks in the UK was light & day. The point Im trying to make is IMO the ease of credit has created the shale monster & fundamentals have gone out of the window. There is no way UK banks would lend under current circumstances to UK shalers.
“It’s structural,” said Yasser Elguindi, market strategist at Energy Aspects, a consultancy. “Energy equities have underperformed relative to the commodity, relative to the S&P. Investors are saying ‘no mas’. They’ve lost faith in management.”
The bets against XOP, an ETF that tracks oil and gas explorers and producers, now amount to more than $1bn — or almost half its float — with the number of shares shorted up 9 per cent in the past month and 2 per cent this week, according to S3.
Short interest in OIH, an ETF that tracks oilfield services companies, rose 9 per cent over the past week and amounts to $233m, or almost 40 per cent of its shares.
The move to open bigger short positions creates the opportunity for a squeeze, if valuations show any signs of creeping higher. But a short-covering rally — or any kind of sector recovery — will need a stabilisation of the coronavirus outbreak or a halt to the broader market sell-off, said Mr Dusaniwsky.
“The price of crude is going to wag the tail of the short sellers in the market,” he said.
It is the size of the shorts that could give a gigantic spike. " Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email email@example.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/a456ee76-5a63-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc
Bruised by plunging commodity prices and oversupply across the industry, US oil and gas companies have come into the sights of market speculators, who have placed huge bets against equity valuations in the sector.
Short sellers have added more than $460m to their short-interest positions since the start of February, according to data from S3 Partners, a research company, the largest move of this kind in the sector since June 2019, when oil prices tumbled into a bear market.
In addition, two exchange-traded funds considered proxies for US energy, XOP and OIH, have drawn particular attention from funds seeking to profit from the sector’s deepening slump. Short interest in both now amounts to around 40 per cent of their shares, the data show.
Investor disenchantment with US oil and gas companies is not new — but it has suddenly accelerated. The sector’s high debt burden, patchy record of paying back investors, and the inability of some producers to spend within cash flow has consistently dragged on equity valuations. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email firstname.lastname@example.org to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/a456ee76-5a63-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc
The S&P index of energy stocks is down 25 per cent so far in 2020, compared with a 7.5 per cent drop for the S&P 500, and is barely positive over the past 10 years. Bank of America calculated that the sector was now underperforming the broader market by the biggest margin in almost 80 years.
Short sellers think worse is imminent for energy equities. Some spent recent days drawing up lists of especially vulnerable companies, reflecting a sudden negative shift in mood about the coronavirus among hedge funds in the US, according to conversations with people close to these moves.
“Short sellers have put a lot more cash into the pot by shorting another $462m worth of energy stocks, anticipating further price weakness in the short term,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of predictive analysis at S3.
Among shale companies targeted for shorting in recent weeks have been Range Resources and Southwestern Energy, according to S3 data, both large producers of natural gas left exposed to the plummeting co
Cheers, Modestus. I couldn't see the article, but the headline says it all. TBH, if the pummeling they've had over the past few weeks (no, months) is a tiny sign, they should be cutting back on drilling big time. Shale wells take about 9 to 12 months from drill start to production coming online, and I'd like to see serious cuts announced in the coming months to curb 2021 production rates. Then OPEC + will be back in control. Fingers crossed.
Yes, I did. I do have minor positions in Devon and Centennial, and I can't help but notice. CDEV is a speculative play, whilst I thought DVN was more stable than what I've found out in the past 4 weeks - even with a 2.5% dividend yield. ;-) Wall Street just isn't buying their story yet.
At least Enquest is moving up nicely today, along with other UK based oilers. Good for us.