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Hi!
Pelle,
Sorry that I forgot Magnus count-off, that you are right in, and that is 156m on a 90-year base in my figures.
As I am comradely I always give thumbs-up to everyone who answer in a polite way, and lot of others.
Keep up the god work.
Mvh/Kamrat
Hi!
Thanks for so much response.
It would newer happened (I´ll think) if I wrote 70.
northernmonkey2,
The words is so wise that I think you should write your nickname with a big letter in the beginning.
I also have hope of that they hedging as small they can, but I don't think they will.
What you will and what you got can be with differences.
Pelle,
You have all right about the hedging and my 90 just show the valuation IF we get 90.
But you still wrong about BP-sharing and I shall try to only use H1 number why it is soo.
Check BP-sharing H1, its below 1m and in that case did BP get very little of 37,5% production!
Why: First you got to take away the BE ink, other costs.
epi,
Even you, Who asked me again to take right numbers, deserves to use big letter.
I don't have access to Malaysia numbers, so if you know how to get it and let me know I`ll would be happy.
I use 7 000 as base and 4 690 after calculating with 67%.
My Q4 numbers:
Enquests
% Numbers for Q4
Alba 8 000 8,00% 640
Goosander 450 50,00% 225
Grouse 450 50,00% 225
Gadwall 600 50,00% 300
Mallard 1 500 50,00% 750
Eagle 0 15,00% 0
Cratches 2 600 50,00% 1 300
Scolty 3 100 50,00% 1 550
Kraken Tot 32 500 70,50% 22 913
Magnus 16 000 100,00% 16 000
Golden Eagle 45 000 26,69% 12 011
Pereguine 1 000 26,69% 267
Solitaire 500 26,69% 133
Malaysia 7 000 67,00% 4 690 PSC variable
Bressay 0 40,81%
Bentley 0 100,00%
PM 409 0 85,00%
Tot 61 003
------------
I know that You over there First take away the gas so your beginning numbers are smaller.
As the gas price is higher now is the differences against crude not a big deal and some people think it shall counting higher or at least in same price.
I am so illiterate in that area so I use H1-numbers in my files but not Here.
All I know is that if I use my 70 numbers I will be very rich and on that is a very big upside.
Regards/Kamrat
Is there a date for the Ops update or is it TBA ? I see that it was 24th Nov last year.
Excellent. :-) Cheers, P.
The market will eventually recognise value in Enquest, even if means that we need to wait for a few more months. Next month's update will be interesting and could be the initial trigger for a move up, particularly if production is trending well.
Excellent. :-) Cheers, P.
The market will eventually recognise value in Enquest, even if means that we need to wait for a few more months. Next month's update will be interesting and could be the initial trigger for a move up, particularly if production is trending well.
Hello E,
I have Petronas in my excel model.
Below I just wanted highlight it’s not that easy get 90 usd for 100% production
P (and Tarmak) - from what I can see you're still ignoring the 3 to 3.5 kboepd that goes to Petronas (assuming a 8.5 to 10 kboepd reported Malaysia number) via the PSC, even though this production is reported in the headline production number. It's not big in the grand scheme of things, but you won't arrive at the correct FCF if you keep using the gross reported production.
Best
Kamrat, 6m barrels are already hedged 2022 with maximum price 75 usd. That’s 30% production.
I would assume it’s for H1 and 60%.
So to get 90 usd H1 all production, spot price needs to be 112,5usd
Remember also it’s only 54k as 6k go unhedged to BP.
And I would assume between now and last update in September they have hedged another 6m barrels to reach the 60% requirements in RBL.
Hopefully this has been done in last weeks and a lot better than 75 max price.
This will be very interesting read in next update
Hi tarmak,I'm usually a fan of the hedge's just to safeguard the oil price,but on this occasion I hope there just sticking to what they have to contractually and get what they can with the rest, anyone know how they have to sell the hedge's in place i.e do all the hedge's have to be used up at specific times or is there some leeway attached,gla monkey
Hi!
Why is everyone so gloomy?
Its our time soon.
I have Enquest at a little over 61k at the moment, counting on 60k, and with their 4 (can be 5 according to email) drillings, decline should do very well (more likely with an increase).
Its possible that OP reach over 90 and if it do, it will be hedging.
I think that OP will rise during the winter and 90 may not be the highest price.
The figures are year-based.
OP 90
BE 35
Boepd 60 000
Days 365
Shares 1 885 924 339
Share of fcf 40,00%
Yield 7,00%
FCF $ 1 204 500 000
Out 40% of fcf $ 361 350 000
Market capitalization $ 5 162 142 857
Stock price $ 2,74
Dividend $ 0,19
£, course 0,729
Market capitalization £ 3 763 202 143
FCF £ 878 080 500
FCF / Stock 0,47
Stock Price £ 2,00
Dividend £ 0,14
Starting to look better with the prices that are and with hedges in high numbers, I must admit that the DIRECTION IS OUTLINED.
A few months in this climate, with $100 grands /month, is enough for it to feel really good.
Mvh/Kamrat