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Haha,no. dream on!
If GKB is wrong it’s 2000 SEK penalty each post! Lol:-)
I havent looked at the cash flow sharing deed which will have specifics on cost. It was just an estimate - fair enough with leasing. Across the group enquest do not have costs per barrel of $20p/bbl though - irritates me when managements refer to EBITDA or pre-capex costs in a capital intensive biz. The higher the profit the bigger the payout to BP, as our cash already included in top-line. Will see if i can take a look. Couldnt find in prospectus last time i checked.
Re the Magnus profit calc ENQ don't absorb capex or lease costs in their $20 p/bbl number so I have added back a few dollars based on the global capex and leasing costs. I assume the BP cash sharing deed will not exclude capex for Magnus. My estimate is conservative though...granted. I think we are very well positioned and wish everyone good luck. Magnus and Kraken are great assets when you compare to asset extensions specialists like Serica, who are exposed to gas oversupply and have way less 2P.....that stock is still cheap though - i am taking a closer look
Not to worry Jan, at least you haven’t been verbally assassinated lol
Maybe if you attend the AGM you won’t forget next time, then apparently you can start patronising everyone on here lol
Honestly I’d rather go to the 60p party than the AGM
Yes sorry guys. My numbers ignore. They came from a funny part of my memory banks. At my age best to check beforw i post. Memory on way out.
Net debt should be around $1510m at year end 2019, I’m see debt reduction at $42m per month this year if Brent averages $63
At 31 October 2019, net debt was reduced to $1,561 million (30 June 2019: $1,638 million)
Hi Pelle,
From memory we were 1475 at half year (end june).
Minus 30m per month debt reduction since June gives circa 1300 - 1350 year end !
Or have I missed some grey matter here ?
Hello Jan,
How do you get so low end 2019 net debt?
Looks good to me !
Even if you take Tom's model. He is confirming debt will be down to 1 billion or less at end of 2020.
Debt end of 2019 around 1.30b to 1.35b
Minus Tom's 360 gives a 0.94b to 1.00b for end of 2020.
If that's the pessimistic forecast then I'm a "happy bunny".
Personally I see fcf at 500m
All the best
Jan
Ok.. Time will tell..
Thistle will give flush production when re-started, so maybe up to 8k for a few weeks before dropping back down to 5k
Tom8080
And if you have Brent on 62 for the year you dont count any premiums or do you think the Brentprice is is lower for 2020 and counting with premiums?
Kraken increase offset by depletion in other fields. Magnus continuing on current trend. I will be happy with sustained production in 2020, de-levering $300-400m and re-starting hunt for new Malaysian or North Sea marginals with max capital discipline.
Ajes - WE LOST THISTLE IN H2 !!!!
chilting,
Enquest official production numbers:
Production jan-june = 68,548
Production jan-okt = 68,501
Production july-okt = 68,430.
Even though the improvment of Kraken we have a decline in overall production in H2 2019. I belive that production 2020 will be lower than 2019 - we need to wait and see the guidance... maybe operational update on thursday the 30/1 ?
Tom8080
Very consevative if you think we will have lower production FY 2020 than H1 2019, why?
I am not getting near $50m a month of FCF as has been suggested on this board unless Kraken premium surprises me. My fag packet prediction for FCF available to pay down debt principal in 2020 is $360m. The Tanjong Baram Project Finance Facility is L+8.5% and the BP seller note is L+7.5% so I would hope they can aim to wipe these whilst still paying the PIK and principal scheduled payments for RCF next April. $360m FCF calculation below:
EBITDA = (66,500*$62*365)*60% EBITDA margin: c.$900m. Cash deductions as follows
-$200m (Capex)
-$50m (repayment of 75% seller note to BP)
-$60m (Magnus cash flow share paid to BP, 6,500bodp*$25profit/bbl)
-$120m (lease obligation)
-$100m (interest charges, these could be lower but assume RCF paydown offset by PIK on bonds will mean same as 2019)
-$12m (Malaysia corporate tax)
Ajes
Kraken production was poor in the first three months of 2019 it improved later in the Spring and has been excellent since the Summer - if AK continues to perform at current level throughout 2020 then production will be significantly higher.
Well tell us Neil it don't need to be a secret!!!
Give us your predictions on the next update??
Hope your right Krak so 70k to 75k will be what the market is looking for and debt at $1b year end !!
Refinancing of that in 2021 and we will see dividends and buybacks and maybe some new Magnus like assets from BP ???
Here is to hoping everyone...
I also wounder how it is possible with higher production 2020 then 2019 when Thistle and Heather is offline.
Its also hard to understand how FCF will be higher in 2020 then in 2019 given that in 2020 Bp will recieve 37,5% of Magnus FCF. In 2019 BP had to repay 100MUSD before FCF.
Vendor loan repayment were higher in 2019 ~70MUSD and in 2019 I expect ~30MUSD 2020.
Disclaimer - I'm a long term holder of Enq and waiting for 10 SEK per share in 2021. So please dont accuse me of beeing a deramper..
For starters Kraken only had about 6 months of continued high production rates. If 2020 continues as we have seen over the last 6 months then production will be above 2019 even with the other assets declining, Thistle back on line in Q2 will boost production
Will enquest production in 2020 be higher than in 2019 ??
Can someone tell me where is the extra production is coming from please ??
The UD will tell us guidance for 2020 and how will the market react to the same numbers !!