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Let me correct you Romaron.
You mean "built it, and they will come" right?
With all that Enq already built they shall come.
Nevertheless Enq will of course continue
GLAD
mrc
I guess you have been investing in oil for too long an haven't seen the momentum effect that can build with good news - sadly Brent hasn't performed very well over the last few years, so momentum has been lacking in the sector.
The good news now is that Brent is on the rise at the same time as Enquest has got its's act together - that will push up volume and create the momentum we need, directly propelling the SP up.
It may be a lot of hot air and speculation but there are so many overvalued shares on the market where there has been nothing but good news for an extended period - there is no reason now why Enquest shouldn't join them.
Thanks for that guys. One last thing. HMH indicates we can't claim back the tax paid by Sumcor from Jan 1 until the recent final completion. Juan says we can claim the tax paid by Suncor since Jan 1st back.
Which is right or have I misread?
Splitting hairs now but this must boost Monday's price as many sitting on the sidelines will have calculated the bonus of the oil increase and the tax benefits.
Build it and they will come.
Dont forget, given the current poo Enq will eventually have to pay some extra for the asset. Main thing is anyway that Enq now owns the share in the GE, and right now the NPV added to Enq is quite insane.
If one would go back in time 50 years or so and tell about the valuations now seen in the sector people just wouldnt believe you
GLAD
That's what I said , HMHn.
You just said it more "posh".
Romaron,
From 1/1 2021 the post tax cash flows will be offset against the final payment for the GE asset. Suncor have payed taxes for the asset which will cease to be the case from the date we move GE into the vehicle that carries Enquest's tax assets (Enquest Heather LTD. If I recall). The money have been received by Suncor but the check Enquest have to sign on closing day has reduced daily since 1/1. I guess we will pay in the $200-225m range instead of the initial consideration of $325m.
So the tax money payed by Suncor is forever gone, but as of last week we carry the asset and will offset any tax bill against our tax assets and pay zero taxes, and receive the cash in our accounts.
Best, HMH
Romaron,
I am just a simple East London boy, but will have a go in answering your question !
We only get the full revenue in our bank from the date of completion -- now.
However, From January Suncor have had the sales revenue but instead of paying the taxman the tax on these oil sales. Succor have used our tax allowance and effectively paid this tax money to us ! They have paid us by reducing the price of GE by this tax amount.
So we have had A benefit since JANUARY of the tax of the revenue. The full revenue gets paid to us now - hence the SP should rise next week. - otherwise the SP would have no reason to rise !
Hope this is helpful and correct ??
Correction - Actually it is his brother Nobody who is perfect. What a family?
"No one knows the future" Aloj - can you introduce me to No One, I'll happily pay an introductory fee. I hear he is perfect as well. We have a few on here who make similar claims and one who even knows AB's thoughts and plans. I think they've been saying fibs.
One serious question. I thought we got the revenue for GE oil sales from 01/01/2021 with Suncor getting uplift if oil prices breaches staggered upper levels. In simple terms (please) what date is it from when the cash goes into EnQuest bank account?
@tigar and others
"I think the story is too good, if true share price should double in my view."
It is often a good rule of thumb. If i had lets say $300 million in cash i could however make sp rise significantly, and then when sp at lets say 60 p you would consider it a bargain and buy?
No one knows the future. The sp is just a aggregate guess of the future made by the people interested, weighted based on capital. If you dont have any money at all your guess will not count no matter how much you know about enq and oil business. If i win $10 million on a lottery ticket i would not be better at guessing the future of Enq and its sp, my guess would however make more of a difference on the sp.
GLAD
Morning Tigar - for someone who claims not to be an accountant you seem pretty good at it to me. I can only do broad strokes and I usually follow Pelle because if he is dramatically wrong there are a few here who will pull him up for missing the deposit return on empty barrels for example. I did look at the Supplementary Prospectus (it was painful) but it looks like regulatory hoops and whilst I begrudge giving more to Suncor as the oil price rose we end up with a lot more than them in the deal. It worked (so far) better for us but Suncor aren't mugs either.
I know 2 posters on other boards who you'd think were an asset. An ex partner in a big 4 Accountancy firm and a helicopter captain who ferries workers to rigs. They aren't. I suppose the pilot has an excuse in it's noisy and there is a kinda barrier whilst the accountant becomes fixated on minutiae and lacks flexibility. It may be wrong fundamentally but you have to accept what the market says and does. Our management have excelled in these tough times. The entering into a swap at a very low price was criticised (not by me) in the depths but it may have been a panic bail out (I've done a few and you get mixed results) but weirdly calmed the market in our shares.
Still mulling the 2 RNS's. We didn't have much control over the Cobasam announcement but they seem generally to be 2 days after the event. The importance here is the percentage imo. 3.02%. It gives them cover if they want to go just below 4% and they'll have to inform if they drop below 3%. they're here for the ride and it is a simpler trade than the Helikon. The GE announcement (effectively after hours) may just be to help the computer guys and registrars enter stuff over the weekend? I think its's more than that but speculation.
What isn't speculation is Bressay. I fancy that after COP26 they'll turn their attention towards it. It is encouraging that Chysaor (HBR) are still in with 18% whilst wishing to exit Sea Lion and I suspect that Equinor can develop with us and we'll take the flak. we're not Norwegian and will be the operator. I'm actually looking forward to COP26 because there are stirrings and some activists are looking increasingly sanctimonious. What is happening to indigenous people and their representation at COP26 is nothing short of scandalous. We're still acting like missionaries.
Be Lucky
Lol Chilting - sounds like a bit of a run away reaction!
What a lot of bullocks you post.
I reckon the SP should gain 4p as a result of GE - that's more or less the drop after the half year results.
So by the end of the week the SP could be close to 30p.
The result of that boost should then push it towards 35p and beyond as interest is regained in the stock - especially from the day traders.
Its all about regaining the momentum that was lost at the beginning of September and then building with Brent performing well - we now have two green traffic lights again.
Tiger,
Lol. I really like your posts and find them informative.
You made me smile with your last one though.
You said - "But never Ramp or bull"
And then finished the post with - " True share price should Double in my view"
Lol, some would say that is a ramp !
Tigar what we have basically done is replace high cost high declining assets with low cost, low declining assets, in layman’s terms we have re-set the game but now we are going forward with much higher oil prices.
It’s game on
Hi romaron
Accepted I may get my fag packet calculations wrong sometimes but never ramp or bull I do like constructive negative posts am fully aware you have to be careful if it sounds too good to be true it usually is? If anyone can see the negative in Enquest post and debate it. I think the story is too good, if true share price should double in my view.
Thanks guys for your response.
* Do we
So we expect more details info next week about final cash price on the deal?
Jan - I don’t think RNS timing really matters unless you are a trader. You might get some more volatility releasing it on a higher volume day, but I think ultimately in this market we will end up in the same place within a week or 2.
I think this is what Romaron was getting at yesterday.
We might get a piece in the Sunday papers to spur things along on Monday.
Im not sure how much of GE is in the broker forecasts. I suspect it will have been highly risked if there is any, so could see some new forecasts.
Jan2
Suppose as shares had to be cancelled and reissued weekend was best technical time to do it. And they probably have to announce things before hand to abide by LSE rules. We may well get another RNS first thing Monday confirming new shares have been listed for 8am trading.
But I suspect the important bit about how much we handed over will not come out yet, hope it does?
Just to add.
I think the market was taken by surprise getting the RNS late on a Friday Thats when companies normally try to slip out bad news , hoping it slips under the radar. Not the best time for a good news release. I think i would have waited until first thing Monday to release the RNS.
The fact that the SP was rising going into close tells us everything we need to know, the likes of TLW and HBR were under negative pressure, if there was any doubts for us the market would have panicked and sold off fast specially on a Friday afternoon.
Monday should be the start of much better times
You can probably throw in the Cobasam RNS with it too. The 1 1/2 hours difference makes it appear unconnected but there is already an hours difference with clocks but I'd say anything past midday on a Friday is too late for a price reaction. It isn't called POETS day for nothing.
Ain't reflection wonderful. Desperately trying to retrieve my credibility and wake up to a text from another LTH who doesn't post here or always agree with me. He is ex Shell so always worth listening to. E121 and hitman know who I mean. He wrote:
"Some chunky trades before close.
Something I would accept if what tigar is suggesting is true
Reason whythere weren't more such trades is probably not enough liquidity
Seriously... Who would be selling now."
So obviously I reread Tigar's post and assume it is the 21.16.
The trade angle is probably correct. We know algorithms never sleep but they are excellent at being there always for the slot machine punters but when a whale wants a price or news is out they will not cover the amounts. So Friday afternoons do have similarities with Christmas eve and the day before a public holiday. The timing of the GE RNS basically made it impossible to get size done. The late trades he mentioned anyway have the reporting time against them. Off-Book means exactly that and not the time the deals were struck. Was the timing intentional or not? Well, they ain't gonna tell us so it's speculation.
If I can bump into an analyst on a Wednesday afternoon locally I don't expect he'll be anywhere strategic on a Friday afternoon unless he is involved in finalising a large deal. You don't really get anything done late on a Friday afternoon. Even monkey is out of it.
The Tigar reference is interesting. I think he's right. There are elements of an IPO imo and we will have the opening prices on Monday morning. The company will be the same but different (it makes sense to me). Will the market like the new outfit? Does the value of GE suddenly blossom as accountants, analysts and rating agencies are forced to comment. we shall see.
Apologies to Tigar. I was rude to him on the 17 June and did misread the question. It is so unlike me to be rude to honest posters.
Be Lucky