Enquest Share Chat (ENQ)

NO is just 61 miles to the south west of AK - hook up looks like it will be from the north.

ETA is breakfast time tomorrow so we could have a hook up late morning if they are ready.

Weather is set fine.

http://www.bilddump.se/bilder/20190921182853-185.205.224.55.png

Hi hitman1a / hamnon.

Nobody interested in your Hitman posts so hijack a more popular poster?

How embarrassing for you

Fake hannon - I've seen this post before.

You wouldn't have another profile would you?

We should have a higher market cap, given the depletion /depreciation charge for 6 mths is $255m . I just think of this as extra money.. on top of the net profit.. which allows Enquest to pay off large chunks of debt and also reinvest in new drills/capex every year. It's upto Management to decide where to spend it.. . but in my book, having an EBITDA of nearly $1b gives the board a nice problem to have. After all, even AB mentioned at the AGM, why do people always concern themselves about the debt. ? It doesn't look that high now.

I certainly don't like the interest rate we pay, lower for longer might work out cheaper if they could refinance now.. otherwise it's deleverage as fast as possible. Even Greece wants to pay off high interest rate IMF loans and replace them with alternative cheaper ones.

We should have a market cap near $750m but need another 6 mths accounts to prove it.. I can't agree with others that this is a speculative buy, given the significant reserves and expertise.. but as mentioned from the AGM, Enquest has consistently failed to meet it's own targets and Kraken was a disaster that caused more issues that can't be forgotten, even though it is now fixed.
GL.

Hi L3,

Agreed,it wasn't clear. That page totalled OGA boepd Jan-Dec 17 and 18 and used that to look at % increase/decline.

I've looked at increase/decline over differing time periods and in the end just looking at using preceding 4 months data to represent change and then applied a reduction factor (shrinkage) that gets OGA down toward company reported figures. I've now graphed that and it works very well I think. Tight to OGA parallel but veering away when gas heavy Magnus is firing. Will be iInteresting to see how the predictions work. Again no planned improvements factored in and a bad Magnus month influencing data .. so I have a get out of jail free card in any scenario.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/b78nmdzgue4ezt3/Enq%20Prod%20data%20with%20estimates.pdf?dl=0

Second half underway . . the poison is football.

Cpy/Paste nth time lucky?

GLAXXX

Itsaponzi, you were predicting single figures a few days ago!

Thanks pelle, I do take confidence with internal buys, I respect that AB is putting he’s personal / family money in.

Agree with market anticipation normally you find institutions are snapping up shares before the true value hits the mainstream buyers, this doesn’t seem to be happening at the moment, but like you abit confused with recent trade action. But not the fist time I’ve been in the dark Enquest;)

Looking to add around these levels in the coming weeks.

Good weekend;)!

25p ??? but i have said on many occasions forget this year but get lock and loaded from the start of 2020..
70p 2020 year end ??
£??? 2021

Mavrick, I wish I knew:-)
It cant be less then 20p atleast with all this production and assuming 65 oil then.
And outlook for 2020 is much better in term of lower cost, better balance sheet and probably only small amortisation left at the RCF for 1 April schedule.

Maybe they reduced debt another 200 mill, I am struggeling with these work in capital changes at P35 last report.
How it will effect H2? Just the debt reduction should then incease SP 50%.
Do we get anymore for 2020 outlook? (Normally market should price in such things earlier in my mind)
And that we basically a safer bet.

Somehow I still think AB holding this SP back and buying as much shares through confusing guidance and limited info to Analysts. Look at the marketscreener finance page. How inconsisten figures and strange estimates.
Maybe buying on a scheduled deal from Swedbank?
Otherwise it must be hard buy 500-1000k each friday basically, its my thought.

Its all very crazy, but we will come out good at some point as AB and Helmuth cant resist buying at these levels.

Pelle - If oil’s holds around these levels what’s your view for year end sp?

Appreciate tie feedback as always!

There some new links with video and photo of work onging in Saudi here

https://twitter.com/aeberman12

Thanks - that was my thinking having admittedly done zero research...when shareholders are starting government petitions it never ends well.

Shame as it looks like they have a decent management team and product to sell. Maybe just unlucky with timing looking for funds. No doubt someone will make money out of it but SH not I expect.

Neil, sxx 2 words. Dead duck.
I have great sympathy for current sxx shareholders but unless a white Knight appears (Han**** or bhp etc), it’s heading for a total restructuring & shareholders will be wiped out.

Recomend copy your posts, might need give it a few tries before it go through

L3, the 30k is the way I keept track on the other fields and its been rather stable.
Expect maybe 23k during summer months due maintenance
And 30k+ from Sept with new pipelines without wax and Malaysia completed.

L3, Tired now. I just wrote you long post and it didnt go through:-(

Beerbull - I see you have posted on SXX... What are your thoughts? Dead duck?

When hopes are pinned on gov intervention I would usually not touch.

You seem like a level head so thought I would ask your opinion

Thanks - Neil

Beerbull - yes but grown ups are boring...

Revenue $858 Million +57%
EBITDA $526 Million +69%
Cash generated $426 +34%
Net debt ratio reduced to x1.8

The share price cannot stay this level forever with those sort of numbers in the background. This will rerate over the next six months.

Selected few,

Therapist: Many thanks for your 15/09 spreadsheet.
I cannot understand the last page, p. 10. You refer to Prod FY17 and Prod FY18.
What are these? I am sorry but I do not understand if the figures are boepd or something else.

Londoner7 and ProOpt: I read with interest your exchanges on the Western Flank.
In particular that " demand for hot water from FSPO will not diminish with fall off in oil production
from the current well stock so either hot water capacity is added to the FSPO to support the Western
Flank development or an alternative solution is developed. Hence consideration is being given to the
'downhole electrical heating and ESP' solution.

The questions I have for you are: Could ENQ send the Enquest Producer FPSO to the WF? We know that
Alma/Galia project failed, so can the FPSO be sent to Kraken? By the way does any of you know why Alma/Galia
did not perform?
It has produced only 6.3MMboe so far. It was suppposed to produce a lot more given that gross 2P reserves were
set at 34MMboe. Does any of you know what went wrong? I ask because the new ESPs evidently did not
improve production.

Have you seen the plan for Eagle? It is available at:
https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/operations/Downloads/EHE8014_Eagle_Development_ES_Complete_Rev01.pdf
They intend to start production in 09/21 (Capex will be in 2021), and stop after 2 years,
producing a total of 4.3MMbo in the high [P05] case for oil rate.
I do hope that Capex on Eagle will be no more than $60M!

Pelle: You asked about the feasibility of hedging during Monday and Tuesday. Yes, it was possible. 5Billion bbl
changed hands on Monday in the derivatives market. E121 casted doubt on direct hedging. If he wants he can explain
more why he thinks that would be hard. There were surely parties out there trying to cover their short positions
and I am sure ENQ knows who to ring/email. We shall see if they hedged anything in the next OUpdate. Shale
producers did take the chance to hedge, as confirmed by the media.
Yeseterday you wrote that you expect production at 30Kboepd, if you exclude Kraken and Magnus. How do you get
to that number?

SP: I am not one for running commentaries on the SP, but I am puzzled as to why it does not budge.
We know one thing, which is that AB bought on 23 November 18 at 23.3p. After that his purchases were
all below 20.4p. It seems Mr. Market wants to see more evidence that execution is as planned.

PO: $4/5 higher than last Friday! Good news that rigs are down and that EIA weekly production is stuck at
12.4Mbopd. Better yet that part of the positive adjustment every week seems to be driven by crude-by-rail
from Canada. So the import data from Canada is not accurate on a weeky basis. At least we know that
it is not immediately unaccounted-for US production that is explaining the adjustment. As E121, insistently
says keep an eye on shale to see where the POO is headed.

GLA

Haha the war mongering kraken is back.

Neither side want a war so it won't happen.

I think this is the least provocative response. There had to be a response.

The worst thing would be for US to do nothing and give Iran a free hand.

May also be better prepared if Iran do have another pop.

That's another step towards all out war. Obviously the US believe another attack is imminent. This latest attack has been brushed off by the oil markets , Iran haven't achieved the oil shock they want so badly.....Yet !

What you expect to happen neil normally the opposite happens so I will go with a $2 rise ??

Ups the ante imo Neil.