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The are TNCP trades - no idea what they are but they don't seem to have anything to do with normal trading - they are classed as non price forming - looking around at other stocks, not just oil stocks but right across the market, they all had similar trades - maybe it has something to do with the end of the month???
E121, I am asking you because I know you follow, in detail, the rig count data. Looking at the data I feel the fall in US rigs must be "at" or near the bottom. I just can't see the numbers falling much further or there won't be a US oil Industry left with this rate of rig reduction. What's your thoughts/views ? I know there are a number of months delay in the rig count falling, before it is translated into actual production falls in the published figures. Therefore today's rig count will not show in decreased production until maybe mid summer. I am working on US production falling to circa 9-10m bpd based on the number of current rigs today. What's your thoughts on US production falls, with what we know now ? All the best
Disagree - I would NOT expect company share buy-backs while POO is at these levels. It would not be prudent to take a chance with the company's future, surely. They would need the cash if a big second wave of coronavirus came in the Autumn and POO nose dived again. NO - You will only see the company buying shares back when it is safe to do so, and sadly that is not likely until POO goes well above $50 . Also it would need to be at $50+ for many months . All IMHO of course. All the best
I need to look at the indentures. Would lenders by comfortable in loaning an extra £40m so AB could buy in 20% of the market cap? If he is bullish he could significantly increase his ownership, why not? It would kick the share price on significantly. If we all believe the market cap of enquest is below the intrinsic value of the equity why are management not pushing for this?
RE: Falling rig count and demand normalizationSat 12:50
Thank you for your patience in explaining hitman1a appreciate your reply thank you... I'm a bit lost over the deleveraging part if I'm honest but i don't have as greater understanding of the company as you and others on this BB probably have.. Hope you have a nice weekend tho and I look forward to reading your posts in the future.
RE: Falling rig count and demand normalizationSat 11:36
It might have been me, 1p rise for every $1 increase . If we hit $40 within the next 2 weeks, then we can accept a slow upward trend to the GS target of $65 by Dec 2021, with a corresponding increase in SP, but maybe high 40s, not sure about 60p yet... just depends on the actual rate of deleveraging next year, ie if we get $65 earlier than expected. $55 plus is good enough. My inclination is Saudi want that price this year asap to help balance the books which would also help our FCF a great deal.
RE: Falling rig count and demand normalizationSat 10:05
What factors/ oilprice do we need plz for Enquest sp to be valued at say 30 or 40p plz? If Brent goes to 65 next year would that be likely to mean that Enquest could reach 60p? Did someone post on here a while back roughly every $1 rise on Brent equals 1p on Enquest?
I looked at a few other companies (PMO, TLW, BP.)and the UT trades are all pretty sizeable there too so it may be an end of month technicality and there were plenty of those TNCP trades too. Could be just a blip that we can ignore. If it's more than that maybe the weekend press might comment.
Hi hitman - it was K who alerted me. I doubt it's buyback and I expect a RNS early next week. This looks like a negotiated deal and the use of the UT might be for transparency or an impartial way of settling on a price. The Europeans had fixes on their currencies mid-day for a "fair" price for their customers. It was used to settle many deals and avoided accusations of dealing at highs and lows of the day. In this trade It might even be that the parties agreed to do the trade through the auction process at the closing UT at the end of May. We'll get some clarity next week hopefully.
I've never seen anything similar to that, but given there are nearly 1.7b shares, it could be that another RNS is on the way. I'd be impressed if Enquest were using the share buyback option, assuming they had received permission from the lenders. Perhaps that's what AB meant when he referred to them being supportive. My guess is Schroders might have reduced their holding a little.
This showed very little production reduction in March with actuals at 12.716 mmbbls/day only marginally down from 12.74 mmbbls/day in Feb. This compares to the 4 weekly average at the end of March at 12.875 mmbbls - more or less inline with actuals. Production started 'crashing' in the last of March and we should note a large drop-off in actuals in the April report.
It's that time of the week and the oil rig count is down 15 to 222 from 800 last year. Every little helps and reinforces the notion that longer WTI is in the 30s, the bigger pain there is in the shale patch in the long term. Permian's down 14 to 148 from 452, and Williston's off 2. A fair few rigs in basins like Eagle Ford is being held on to by Majors like Chevron and Exxon, with a view to increasing DUCs for 2021, but the majority of the small/midcaps are hunkering down.
We'll be good with both Brent and Enquest moving into Q3/Q4 .