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Thaty talking about home broadband which is not the main event for Ethernity. 2022 for Tarana globally we'll see 10000 to 15000 base nodes. Certainly they will be connecting millions of users. That's started already. Tarana say that providers are fighting for supply and are racing eachother to install. The Ethernity part is required about 8 weeks prior to installation on the current chain model. Really the rest of the business is where the big numbers are. The UEP IDU sales of aerials last year 10000 units of the old model. This IDU will have immediate access to market and 10000 units should be the starting point with 5g rollouts starting now. We know these are $1000 a unit. India. Estimates from India are 10000 units a year. We know that so far including design $1500 a unit on the first order. UPF in 22 will switch on. Expect chunky card sales in China, Europe and the US as deployments become live. DU we can expect sales from now onwards. These will be multimillion dollar sales covering the scope of each deployment. Integrators are picking up 5g network work now on mass and some will be open using Ethernity acceleration. Realistically for 2022 we shouldn't be seeing anything under $20m and we could well see much more.
Indeed good stuff from Patt on the other board and he goes onto to give the following projections. Possibly abit rampy, but it shows the potential that ENET offers.
"OK....bit silly but lets do some Tarana maths. We know that the new internet providers have to cover 70% of the USA by 2023 by law and that India needs coverage by the 75th Anniversary of Independence in the same year as it has been declared a national target and the politicians have credibility on the line. Then add in Europe and Africa (CEO of MTN has been quoted talking about connecting many millions of customers in a really short period). Say Tarana or Tier 1 and 2 customers connect the following numbers in the next three years: 2022 10m 2023 40m 2024 100m At 250 RN's per BN that is numbers of BN's: 2022 40,000 2023 160,000 2024 400,000 At $500 per BN to ENET that is income of: 2022 $20m 2023 $80m 2024 $200m With a 65% GM.
Bit more on the importance of Tarana. They are developing an incredible Cloud management system for their Tier 1 customers: hTTps://www.taranawireless.com/blog-3 They are also pushing the non line of sight management systems as the USP: hTTps://www.taranawireless.com/problem This we know is all ENET IP with the March 21 patent RNS. They have also described the "solution" that ENET provide them with: hTTps://www.taranawireless.com/solution We can now double the number of sales that we will make through Tarana: "G1 is all about keeping it simple. The platform includes compact base nodes (BNs, each a single integrated package that includes antennas, PAs, several teraflops of digital signal processing, managed Ethernet switching, and 10G optical network interfaces) communicating with up to 256 similarly self-contained remote notes (RNs, our â€œcustomer premise equipmentâ€?) per BN." We have always thought it was 512 RN's per BN. It is half that now. Therefore double the ENET boards. As in the Fast Show "brilliant".
On the subject of Tarana, PaTT has posted the following on advfn:
Saturday morning ENET internet review time. Last week it was STX that had my time. Last night it was ENET that I perused with a glass of wine. Very happy with the results: Tarana....lets take a look. There is a new job on the Tarana careers page: Inside Sales: hTTps://taranawireless.applytojob.com/apply/vkNGssbHo9/Inside-Sales The write up says: "Our innovations in wireless technology are revolutionizing the broadband industry, delivering gigabit residential service at a fraction of the cost of trenching fiber, with tier-1 operators already working on mass deployment." So who are these Tier 1 operators? If we do a search then we find: "Key Tier 1 ISPs include AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, NTT, Singtel, PCCW, Telstra, Deutsche Telekom and British Telecom." Which of those are Tarana Tier 1 companies? Well oddly both AT+T and Deutsche Telecom are direct investors in Tarana and we know a JV with BT is happening: hTTp://gcv-dev.zircom.uk.com/corporate/tarana-wires-in-88m/ So we can be pretty sure that AT+T, Deutsche Telecom and BT are getting ready for mass G1 roll out. Let alone all the other WISP's and other Tarana customers. Another interesting job is Site Reliability Engineer: hTTps://taranawireless.applytojob.com/apply/Ft3dcElp83/Site-Reliability-Engineer The write up says "As a Site Reliability Engineer, you will help us manage software that runs on the cloud and remotely manages millions of radio devices." Jesus Christ....their ambition is beyond our comprehension. They are going to span the globe. Do the maths. The present ENET valuation is under valued simply on the Tarana business! I am expecting Tarana to exceed $12m in 2022 now and ENET to hit $20m in total in 2022. We have the mother of contract RNS's on the way.
If our products are as successful as we all hope, how long do you think we will last before a bigger tech fish buys us out? It's a scenario that no one seems to have considered on here yet I consider it a real possibility at some point.
Tracy, totally agree, a lot of variation from both binary deals and then how they ramp - and as you say much outside their direct control. Happy with a conservative view and upgrades through the year as deals develop - a bit like the way Sergi does it ! Talking more about a more holistic view - how David sees the market developing and ENETs strategy to optimise the opportunity across the product / service range, and then Mark on the financial / commercial impact of this.
I don't see why, they will have a supply agreement and will trigger at the prescribed time. Currently there are 4 deployments I am aware of and now RTA in 21 states. Large deployments are looming now in the US from federal funding. Globally Australia and Europe are huge markets which will go to deployment before the end of this year. Interesting that Tarana expect to supply 1 base for every 100 home units for the next few years. So far 500k against 1400 but we can assume that will change with density.
Skid I don't think that Ethernity management guesses will be in anyway accurate by the time they add a huge measure of caution. These sales are totally out of Ethernity hands which makes me feel better. Embedded global vendors with clients or a tiny company from Israel. You need to know that as far a Tarana goes Ethernity management are completing out of touch with their prospects and just respond to orders. So far $2m but talking to Tarana they estimate 15000 base nodes in 22 many in H1
With the very wide differences in revenues expectations it really does show the need for a investor meet type call for PIs on release of the 2021 trading update early 22, similar to the one they probably gave to Miton. I really couldn't give a toss if David is not a great communicator as we can all see through a flash harry AIM CEO types.
I would be surprised if the run-rate deliveries in the DWs go from 0 to 60-100% in the first year of the deployment (India, UEP, Tarana...). Usually it takes time, 3 to 4 years to reach full run-rate and I expect something like 25-33% in the first year, 50-65% in the second, and the rest in the third/fourth. Plus new contracts and expansions into current projects
I expect 2023 to be the strongest year if everything is on track
Further large contracts but contracts are already secured and selling for new IDU with sales last year 10000 units on a inferior product. India expected sales 10000 units at $1000+ each. $20-25m is very modest. Forget taking this year and adding a bit it's stupid. Completely new markets are open now. Ethernity are very careful with estimates so speak to others and you'll see that now the sales come in.