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Im just flabbergasted how this opportunity has come about . As long as David now knows the true scale and is putting things in place to not disappoint the orders this will indeed be a game changer
In an article from February last year. I like the massive scale. Clearly Ethernity just thought "yeah yeah" to Tarana’s confidence. Greg Wyler is no muppet investor either. Tarana are now in mass deployment and already Ethernity have increased the order expectation. As this new product reaches globally we can expect a huge ramp up in demand. Certainly 5000 units us just a start.
Company founder and COO Sergiu Nedevschi said Tarana is beginning to manufacture its integrated circuits, and is finalizing its cloud-based controller which he said will enable ultra-fast deployment of its radio platform at massive scale. “As we look to bring our commercial products to market later this year, the overwhelming positive response from operators running their own Tarana-based pilot networks has reinforced both the transformational nature of our technology and the pressing market need for such a solution,” Nedevschi said
OneWeb Founder and Chairman Greg Wyler is a Tarana investor and board member through 1010 Holdings, his family investment office. Wyler said that Tarana has developed the world’s “first and only fixed wireless technology with built in anti-jamming interference cancellation capability.”
“This allows Tarana to unlock over 300MHz of unlicensed spectrum for direct-to-consumer broadband applications which will drive down costs and help bridge the digital divide. Until now, you needed large amounts of licensed spectrum to provide wireless broadband. Tarana enables true fiber quality broadband to users tens of miles away using free, unlicensed spectrum,” Wyler said.
Tracy, an accountant so tend to be a little conservative (small c).
I do now share your medium / long term price estimate, which is why my 1% is not moving for a long time.
I guess we can all pin a price on ENET for where we are now, one thing we’re all agreed on it should be a lot higher than 39p right now.
My personal view is £1 minimum, £50m being not a lot for where ENET are. I note dallo’s view that if ENET were listed on Nasdaq now then we probably would be looking at $200m. Dallo strikes me as a level headed chap and not given to hyperbole. Think that would make it £3 or so on Nasdaq. Surely half of that on AIM isn’t unreasonable and fits in well with TL’s £1.50 min now in a poor market.
Yes, the opportunity is there, further newsflow should enable a growing number of investors to pick up what is on offer here, an amazing opportunity, imo.
GLA
I disagree I think that any sensible valuation will be more than £1.50 right now in a poor market.
I get the British mentality of not thinking strong so not to be disappointed but looking at market position, proximity and value £75m is nothing. In 2022 I believe that they will make £10m+ profit, I think that my prove conservation and actually it could be much more. If all 3 opportunities are exploited doubling or tripling wouldn't be ridiculous.
I get that they haven't done it yet but the opportunity is there for all to see.
I have one other company with a similar market cap as ENET and three others in the £50-80m range, all are subject to profit taking hair cuts and eventual sale in short timescale with the exception ENET.
Although all have their merits none of them have the opportunity that ENET have carved for themselves, class leading products in a growing market, high margin and minimal opex. Concern is really on their ability to recruit and scale for the opportunities.
I would have a conservative share price now of c 60 - 80p (based on a sensible market and no stupid ramping). I thought the Tarana deal was a game changer purely on terms of reducing the risk of further cash requirements and keeping the lights on, but can see it is much more.
Many thanks TL, that all makes sense.
Also Vrouter will be a very high margin product
Yes definitely easier as it's a unique real problem solver and costcutter.
The manufacturers have come to Ethernity, they have Pioneers waiting for this solution. They have 3 majors engaged here working with Ethernity to perfect the product.
Yes others have DU products but what I see is that they are at the Radio Unit physically. That's a very unlikely position. I think that Ethernity are absolutely on their own here. Each DU can accommodate 8-10 RU. Multiple solutions may be deployed at dense saturation. Ethernity will be pushing for the Vrouter on board. With the Vrouter it's absolutely unique and solves the whole problem on a cheap server.
The UPF in China will be big mainly because the other competitors are US.
TL , re
‘I see the UPF outside of China as the hardest sell. A couple of months ago it was the only market and only product.’
What is your reasoning for the above? If it makes sense in China, would it not make sense elsewhere?
I get the feeling, and please correct me if I’m wrong, that the product you feel has the most potential is the DU one.
I assume, with the three Tier 1 vendors we will be talking, eventually, about a global market for that product. Do you see the DU as an ‘easier sell’ than UPF?
TIA
GLA
Yes agreed. Any other platform would be £2+ just on hype and BS. We have a BS free price here expecting absolute failure on all fronts.
I see the UPF outside of China as the hardest sell. A couple of months ago it was the only market and only product.
Good link, thanks TL.
Liked this bit:
Each tower equipped with these radios will be able to service 2,000 customers. Supersonic aims to cover over 600,000 homes with its wireless broadband offering within its first year.
And that’s just S.Africa! Sounds like Tarana is going to be a great earner for ENET over the next few years and beyond.
De risks the situation here and sets up a great base on which to add 5G revenue streams.
£20m market cap? Someone’s having a laugh. Can’t see that situation persisting for too much longer.
Africa is a tough market and not surprising that they have started with South Africa. MTN are well embedded across Africa and certainly we will see new providers appearing.
I guess that the US and Canada are the most immediate hunting grounds. 100 million target audience in Suburban and semi rural environments. Long distances and large areas that 5G won't be able to practically cover with density. Fiber is just too expensive to compete.
https://www.developingtelecoms.com/telecom-technology/wireless-networks/10981-wireless-broadband-company-supersonic-targets-south-africa-s-major-cities.html
MTN starting in South Africa. This will account for around one third of the first years demand for Ethernity units..
yes, im quite sure new faces take a while to assimilate. I think your £1 short term goal is not an unreasonable one.
https://5ginsider.com/technology/dish-could-become-a-major-player-in-fixed-wireless/
Interesting link between DISH and Tarana Wireless. AT&T have also funded Tarana. I believe that Tarana Wireless are marketing directly to both for new product lines. They have a market of 60 million marginal fiber properties to secure. The talk of wireless 5G to increase speed is a bit of a out dated problem now. G1 is capable of up the 700 Mbps in the right conditions.
I know that they have been training and developing in-house talent and filling underneath. Reality is that much of what Ethernity do is unique so you can't just transfer talent in and hit the ground running. Headcount has increased and I know that they have been flat out since Christmas.
I think that around June things will get a lot more interesting. I can see £1 as a short term goal now. Certainly inside 3 months from now.
Thanks TL, appreciated and very interesting re enhanced CU offering.
I guess that’s why they’ve been recruiting aggressively over recent times, but new faces always take a while to bed . Hopefully this is where the experience of DL and the management team will come to the fore in maximising the opportunities on offer.
I believe that we'll see an enhanced CU offering in the near future. Data offload, security and V routing. I am expecting something a bit similar to the DU outcome.
I think that there is a real danger of all these solutions running together and Ethernity being overwhelmed by surging workloads.
Currently the UPF trials and DU integration and what's really three design build contracts must be generating massive workload. These are all labour intensive functions with many adaptions I suspect.
Tarana is a massive undertaking but hopefully they can outsource production.
TL, in your opinion are there any other areas in the 5G domain that ENET products and tech could be utilised, beyond the UPF and DU.
I hasten to add that that’s enough to be going on with, but the DU news in Feb re the three Tier 1 server providers sort of caught me by surprise, even though DL had mentioned it in an interview earlier. I’m afraid I didn’t grasp the significance of it at that point. I just wondered if there were any more possible gems in ENET’s treasure box?
Yes a decent week.
Thoughts. If the first delivery by early Q3 (3 months) is 400 @$1000 each then the next 9 months they have to deliver 4600 for $4.6m. Classically a ramp up curve could easily hit 25%% or so of max design output in the first quarter. If that's the case and they are $1000 a pop fir Ethernity from the $15000 tag price. The resellers and broadband providers need to engage up to 2.5m households globally. However I suspect that they will install with just a handful on each to start.
Interesting dynamics and incase you forget another week done on the DU product work with 3 Major Server manufacturers. Another week done on commercial field trials of UPF and other kit with the 3 largest Chinese Telecom.
Just saying.
No problems 01234
A good week for ENET and deservedly so after what I think is a delayed reaction to the excellent Tarana news plus perhaps folk starting to recognise the value in ENET.
Feels like we are on the cusp here, light the blue touch paper and all that sort of malarkey.
have a good w/end everyone
GLA
Sorry uhlf didn’t mean to copy you there , similar sentiment , exactly the same in fact !
Certainly on Advfn there’s a sense of the first of the herd arriving at the enet watering hole! Trying to join in but the dialect is broader than over here lol. It’s been another good week. Exciting times ahead .
Can’t fault the logic on that one TL!
Yes, it sort of feels like news is going to send this smartly north, exciting time ahead.
GLA