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So a unique patent protected, 4 years design and testing.... but low cost solution for a $1bn valued company in their flagship product. Why would you think that.?? Why in 2017 would have Ethernity embarked upon that route given no design payments. Why would they do that
And at a 70% GM
Bid & TL
I think it is going to be a low cost solution but still price per card not lower than $500 because as TL says they have been working 4 years to get the solution, is patent protected, probably there is no alternative and also it comes with the IP/software which is the value added.
I think it is going to be lower t han my initial projection of 2-3k per card and I believe the price per card is going to be somewhat $1-2k
I go the evidence route myself. The Ethernity ship is not too leaky on this. Not surprising as I doubt many will know the contract details.
The best input I have says that it will be a royalty split. Didn't laugh at $1000 or 4000 as a total per unit cost. He/She thought under $1000 unlikely but didn't know. It is the same person who told me 3 months ago that they were flat out. In fact it is the same who told me about the American suits at Ethernity. Take it or leave it but don't ignore it.
I don’t think the market is weighing up unit costs . It’s still not giving a **** about enet. Just got to wait until it does
Haha yes I must admit it's quite common to want to underestimate.. then you get a nice surprise if you're wrong. However I also can't stand the US style bluster and overconfidence that I come across so often in my industry, it drives me nuts.
Hi TL, I checked with a guy in my infra team who is a very experienced techy (the company I work for also has a market cap of over £40bn so he's got a decent calibre) .. he came back with that estimate although as you say this has been designed in collaboration so not an off the shelf solution like he was probably referencing. I still think well under $1k though.
Bid your "no harm in being Conservative" is exactly the problem with uk investors. I don't know what it is or why it is this attitude but it is typically British. Better be safe than sorry ah...
Like walking through treacle.
We have seen several bed and ISA trades since the new tax year. They just cancel each other out. Since Tuesday we have seen few sells. Most red were buys.
Bid please post where that's written because it is certainly not what I am finding. 4 years in development with a joint investment, no design fees.
This is a unique patent protected solution, the patent held by Ethernity. I don't think that this is anything like your numbers.
no idea, thx bid
Hi Sergi the 62,140 is a 'bed and isa' - the sell from a nominee account and the buy in the isa account at a slight premium
Heavy volume today I hope the 5G fund selling is over soon.
Also, I think that they raised money through the 5g system a few weeks ago to build inventory levels for the SoC product
I would lower your estimates when doing those sums - SmartNICs are in the $1-3k range and SoCs cost significantly less since they don't come with the full hardware of the card and ports. I'd pitch it somewhere in the $350-500 bracket, no harm in being conservative.
Must admit, I never saw the Tarana deal coming and didn't think we were in line for a large material non 5G deal. As nuts as a 30p to several £'s sounds I've seen it happen many a time. Shame having patience is so difficult to some (me included)!
Interestingly industry when the discuss market size use $4000 as a ballpark UPF NIC solution unit price.
Another actually more likely model is a ongoing royalty basis. An upfront on delivery fee and ongoing royalty over the life of product or engaged clients.
This is likely with a risk shared product. This will also encourage the next series of evolution.
Me too but the market needs detail. We have invested in knowledge of the goal others have not been so diligent.
I dare to say that since setting my £5-10 target we have added Tarana and DU. It's now looking a bit skinny even from 30p.
Crazy results are fine with me TL.
I wasn't expecting Ethernity to go the in house production route as they are dealing with OEMs I expected the production to go to them and a royalty to be received. It is very possible that Ethernity will be faced with two other mass production orders very soon. One for up to 3 different DU systems and one for multiple orders of ACEnic-100 in different configurations for mass deployment in China. I suspect that they will establish production in India and China eventually.
ACEnic-100 is $2000-3000 depending on the firmware and applications. The margin is huge in the code. I am encouraged to believe that this Tarana solution is more complex, two fpga and a revolutionary patent protected design. So far Ethernity has received nothing (officially) from this deal so I suspect that we'll see a decent unit rate. The volume will require mass production.
1-10% is quite normal in production ramp up in say the first quarter. That assumes that they have started production already. Consider this if a tower unit serves up to 512 homes at $1000 the Ethernity part which appears to make it all happen is worth just $2 a house. Certainly Ethernity solve many of the problems the way they process the information so it can be reassembled upon receiving. This is key to the solution and allows for obstructions and interruptions out of line of sight.
My $1000 to 3000 is a pure guess. We are talking 4 years of work, investment in trials, development of bespoke solution, manufacture and components. Fpga can be super cheap but we are talking about a groundbreaking potentially remote tough to access solution so fpga reliability is super important.
My initial thoughts were $1000-4000 but that produces crazy results.
Agree need to pin down unit price. Guess there could well be a sliding scale for volume.
Your lowest estimate, $1000/unit would then mean the initial order is for 400 units or 8% of the expected 5000 over 12 months.
Is your $1k-$3k based on anything other than an estimate for industry typical prices for thingeymebobs?!
Agree, market is indeed huge for this. Let’s hope Tarana get a nice slice of it. I assume there’s a fair bit of competition.
So if we assume 5000 units in 12 months. Each unit between $1000-3000 each. We can see that $400k is just the very start. Production will need to ramp up very quickly.
We need to pin down the unit price.
The market is huge for this product. The US has millions of houses with no fiber. The US has one of the most dense fiber networks. Globally the market is huge especially in the developing world where finance is available for solutions to bring mass access.