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Rumbled, you make a good point, and I would refer you to a post of mine, a little while back, saying that, IMHO, OCP would see us a prime T/O target. I have to laugh at Westie who changes opinions like wind direction. He posted earlier; ' You're right gents in that the environmental permit is vitally important. No financier worth their salt is going to commit cash without this final permit. '
He forgets the comments by Directors that finance will be arranged before end 2020, and then Q1, 2021., All of which Westie lauded. With the above statement, and permits were not in place. what he is now implying, is that Directors must have been foolish in thinking serious Financiers would finance the project without permits. For once I agree with him. The governance of this company is laughable. I still hold shares, but drastically de-risked from earlier holding. In profit as well. I remember well the post mentioning Broker forecasts of £3 a share when in full production. Westie would now be happy with 20p in a T/O scenario. What about the NPV of 100s of millions. . lol. It's a good job I'm filtered by aforementioned since he wouldn't understand the logic. And I shall close with the time lasting Rhett Butler quote from G W t W, 'Aye up, pubs open luv, tara'.
An interesting take on things Rumbled. I agree I find it difficult to think the sp could drop much from its current levels.
Re being taken out without finance? Yes of course that could be an option but then a what price? I'm here for the long term in the hope of multiples of todays price. I believe that can happen when into production but could it happen without finance and a buyout? In my own mind, I'd be happy with 20p as a short term take out. (decent cash in hand is as good or better than waiting years)
The one thing i'd want to avoid would be vultures such as AAL buying us for a pittance, but I'd hope our management will look after its shareholders from that point of view.
I am less worried about funding than some. Obviously it is best we get funded so we maintain control of our destiny and get to watch and gain from the development of the project into production. But surely with a mining licence and once the environmental permit is issued, in absence of financing, we would be strong target for a take-out by a larger mining business who does have access to cash for such a high NPV project - to be honest there could be more value there than a bad financing deal. My only point is if we can't deliver the project (and i think we will), even at multiples of the current price, the project would be attractive to a cashed up buyer. Am I missing something? This is my fall-back option which makes me think we have next to no downside to the current price.
You're right gents in that the environmental permit is vitally important. No financier worth their salt is going to commit cash without this final permit. However on the plus side, funding talks have been taking place for what seems an age and surely a deal must be almost in place but depending on the issue of this final permit. We can also look forward to an off-take agreement to take our potash. Gotta be OCP surely??
I do find it a nervous time as we simply have to get funded or we're in trouble as a project. I'm always the optimist and have no doubt this will all happen. So we can look forward to later in the year and the start of construction. Surely then all the hurdles will have been jumped?
I think some bought in Jan/Feb without doing thorough research possibly due to the spike. If you bought at 8 I would not worry one bit, just research the project more and you should be calmed.
There is a lot of news flow to come over the coming months.
The environmental permits are now crucial. Without them we can't progress. When we have these GC and HL will be in a strong position to progress on the matters which will start to unlock the real value here.
When these permits come and GC has stated very confident in the next couple of months, then the economics of this project are there for all to see.
Alnista, for us LTH are surely in a better position than yourself. I bought in at 3p, so I will pass the sympathy back to yourself as surely you bought in higher than 3p. But really don't worry yourself Alnista as you will definitely get your money back and some, so all is good in the world don't you think.
I agree with you. His most comfortable and confident presentation. My inclination is that there is a deal in the offing with the locals. Not focusing so much about shipping cost advantage to deliver to Brazil.
I have been invested for only a few months, and have sympathy for those of you who have been so for years. The long term picture is not a pretty one.
Strongly believe negotiations are with multiple founders with multiple funding sources. These negotiations will run alongside the final design phase. That is to say they won’t announce anything until the design stage be fully completed. This gifts EML, absolute control, no doubts, ideal management situation and the optimum final investment presentation to those in principle funders. .
From that presentation EML, to be in the strongest of positions to chose their funders rather than the opposite.
OCP, a state owned company I doubt ever risk their existing contracts. A more realistic and less risky approach for OCP, to agree to accept stage 2 and SoP, product rather than the risky route to accept a product not to market, still in the ground while they cancel their existing contracts? Too risky, once the capacity is there and once its spare they in principle commit to taking up the slack, gradual dependence upon EML, when EML, have physical product?